Atif Adam

Incorporating Systems Science Principles into the Development of Obesity Prevention Interventions: Principles, Benefits, and Challenges

Systems modeling represents an innovative approach for addressing the obesity epidemic at the community level. We developed an agent-based model of the Baltimore City food environment that permits us to assess the relative impact of different programs and policies, alone and in combination, and potential unexpected consequences. Based on this experience, and a review of literature, we have identified a set of principles, potential benefits, and challenges. Some of the key principles include the importance of early and multilevel engagement with the community prior to initiating model development and continued engagement and testing with community stakeholders. Important benefits include improving community stakeholder understanding of the system, testing of interventions before implementation, and identification of unexpected consequences. Challenges in these models include deciding on the most important, yet parsimonious factors to consider, how to model food source and food selection behavior in a realistic yet transferable manner, and identifying the appropriate outcomes and limitations of the model.

The Additional Costs and Health Effects of a Patient Having Overweight or Obesity: A Computational Model

This paper estimates specific additional disease outcomes and costs that could be prevented by helping a patient go from an obesity or overweight category to a normal weight category at different ages. This information could help physicians, other health care workers, patients, and third‐party payers determine how to prioritize weight reduction.

Simulating the Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warning Labels in Three Cities

INTRODUCTION A number of locations have been considering sugar-sweetened beverage point-of-purchase warning label policies to help address rising adolescent overweight and obesity prevalence. METHODS To explore the impact of such policies, in 2016 detailed agent-based models of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco were developed, representing their populations, school locations, and food sources, using data from various sources collected between 2005 and 2014. The model simulated, over a 7-year period, the mean change in BMI and obesity prevalence in each of the cities from sugar-sweetened beverage warning label policies. RESULTS Data analysis conducted between 2016 and 2017 found that implementing sugar-sweetened beverage warning labels at all sugar-sweetened beverage retailers lowered obesity prevalence among adolescents in all three cities. Point-of-purchase labels with 8% efficacy (i.e., labels reducing probability of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by 8%) resulted in the following percentage changes in obesity prevalence: Baltimore: -1.69% (95% CI= -2.75%, -0.97%, p<0.001); San Francisco: -4.08% (95% CI= -5.96%, -2.2%, p<0.001); Philadelphia: -2.17% (95% CI= -3.07%, -1.42%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Agent-based simulations showed how warning labels may decrease overweight and obesity prevalence in a variety of circumstances with label efficacy and literacy rate identified as potential drivers. Implementing a warning label policy may lead to a reduction in obesity prevalence. Focusing on warning label design and store compliance, especially at supermarkets, may further increase the health impact.

Healthy versus Unhealthy Suppliers in Food Desert Neighborhoods: A Network Analysis of Corner Stores’ Food Supplier Networks

Background: Products in corner stores may be affected by the network of suppliers from which storeowners procure food and beverages. To date, this supplier network has not been well characterized. Methods: Using network analysis, we examined the connections between corner stores (n = 24) in food deserts of Baltimore City (MD, USA) and their food/beverage suppliers (n = 42), to determine how different store and supplier characteristics correlated. Results: Food and beverage suppliers fell into two categories: Those providing primarily healthy foods/beverages (n = 15) in the healthy supplier network (HSN) and those providing primarily unhealthy food/beverages (n = 41) in the unhealthy supplier network (UHSN). Corner store connections to suppliers in the UHSN were nearly two times greater (t = 5.23, p < 0.001), and key suppliers in the UHSN core were more diverse, compared to the HSN. The UHSN was significantly more cohesive and densely connected, with corner stores sharing a greater number of the same unhealthy suppliers, compared to HSN, which was less cohesive and sparsely connected (t = 5.82; p < 0.001). Compared to African Americans, Asian and Hispanic corner storeowners had on average −1.53 (p < 0.001) fewer connections to suppliers in the HSN (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our findings indicate clear differences between corner stores’ HSN and UHSN. Addressing ethnic/cultural differences of storeowners may also be important to consider.