nan Atta-ur-Rahman

Analysis of 2010-flood causes, nature and magnitude in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

This article attempts to analyse the nature, magnitude and causes of 2010 disastrous flood that seriously affected the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan. Pakistan is famous for its summer floods, but the flood of 2010 is considered to be the century’s worst. It has broken all the previous records in terms of discharge, damages and amount of rainfall occurred. Most of the meteorological stations have received rainfall above normal. Data for this study were collected both from primary and secondary sources. A total 150 questionnaires were filled in from the flood victims. However, secondary data were obtained from the Pakistan Meteorology Department, Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, Federal Flood Commission, Provincial Disaster Management Authority, National Disaster Management Authority, Surface Water Hydrology Department and Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority. The analysis reveals that heavy and prolonged rainfall for four consecutive days (27–30 July) was the major cause of 2010-flood. In addition to this, the development of unusual low pressure zone over the northern Pakistan, aggradations of river bed, rapid deforestation, ponding back of river by motorway, blocking of bridges by tree trunks and subsequent bursting of temporary dams have played their role in causing the disastrous flood in almost all the rivers of KPK. This has inflicted terrible damages to human lives, standing crops, housing, infrastructure and other properties.

Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope approach

This article deals with the spatio-statistical analysis of temperature trend using Mann–Kendall trend model (MKTM) and Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) in the eastern Hindu Kush, north Pakistan. The climate change has a strong relationship with the trend in temperature and resultant changes in rainfall pattern and river discharge. In the present study, temperature is selected as a meteorological parameter for trend analysis and slope magnitude. In order to achieve objectives of the study, temperature data was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department for all the seven meteorological stations that falls in the eastern Hindu Kush region. The temperature data were analysed and simulated using MKTM, whereas for the determination of temperature trend and slope magnitude SSE method have been applied to exhibit the type of fluctuations. The analysis reveals that a positive (increasing) trend in mean maximum temperature has been detected for Chitral, Dir and Saidu Sharif met stations, whereas, negative (decreasing) trend in mean minimum temperature has been recorded for met station Saidu Sharif and Timergara. The analysis further reveals that the concern variation in temperature trend and slope magnitude is attributed to climate change phenomenon in the region.

Urban Risk and Reduction Approaches in Pakistan

In the history, numerous cities were affected by natural and man-made disasters. After fall of disasters, heavy amount of budget have been spent on the response and recovery, to reinstate the disruption of urban economic activities. The investment on urban risk reduction is much more effective than picking up the pieces afterwards. It is cities, which empower the societies and hub of industrial and commercial services. Urban resilience is largely a function of resilience and resourceful citizens. The strong and committed involvement of citizen at the grassroots level may yield a resilient city. There are many factors that affect urban resilience and no two cities are alike in their inherent capacity. Therefore, building cities more resilient to both external and internal negative factors may lead to more productive economic returns. In Pakistan, 36 % of the total population is living in urban areas, out of which one-fifth is resided in Karachi alone and two-third in both Karachi and Lahore. Out of total urban centres, eight have more than one million population and 68 have over 100,000 inhabitants. In Pakistan, large cities are at risk to various hazards and they have been threatened seriously, while others are at the verge. The mega cities including Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Peshawar have already come a across serious episodes of urban flooding during the past one decade. In addition to this, heavy downpour, heat waves, drought, storm surges, flash flooding are some of the key effects of climate change exacerbations on urban areas. Cities are as vulnerable as they are powerful that’s why the urban authorities should take concrete steps for preparedness and emergency management plans as an urban risk reduction strategy in a systematic way and enable a city to tolerate a disaster with minimal loss of life and resultant damages. This chapter stimulate new arena for thinking and devising innovative approaches for sustainable urban development in the country.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and drought in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan during 1971–2015

High rainfall variation creates problems of floods and droughts in any region of the world. This study focuses on spatial rainfall variability and drought assessment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Various indices like standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis were calculated from annual rainfall of 15 meteorological stations during period of 1971–2015. Mann-Kendall technique was applied to both 1-month and 12-month SPIs for trend detection. All stations showed a positive skewness except Balakot. The highest variability was found in Parachinar and Balakot. The results of 12-month SPI showed two distinct dry periods, i.e., 1984 to 1989 and 1998 to 2002. Mann-Kendall trend test for 1-month SPI reveals more significant positive trend in Parachinar and there was variation in the results of other met-stations. In almost all the met-stations, December was found the driest month as the p values were found negative except in Parachinar. Additionally, the result of 12-month SPI indicated more significant positive trend in Parachinar, whereas more significant negative trend in Balakot met-stations has been recorded.

Expanding Coastal Cities: An Increasing Risk

Abstract Coastal cities are home to a significant proportion of the population of society. From time immemorial, people have been living on the coast to meet their various needs. However, over the last few decades, more people and infrastructure has moved to the coast than ever before. For example, in China, the number of people moving to coastal areas was three times higher than the national average, and in Asia in general, coastal cities have expanded on an unprecedented scale and are still growing. An extremely sophisticated and vast infrastructure is being developed in coastal areas of several Asian countries to expand production and trade opportunities. This chapter will discuss a few cases concerning coastal cities in Asia. It will include demographic expansion, trends in disaster risk, prevailing socioeconomic conditions, structure of local governance and its priorities in risk reduction activities, community engagement in risk reduction, and other aspects of selected cities. The chapter will also cover some recent initiatives in addressing risk in coastal communities and their merits in advancing the resilience of coastal cities.

Cities, Vulnerability, and Climate Change

Abstract Climate change is increasingly been recognized as one of the most serious threats to human society and to the socioecological systems that are so valued by humans. Curbing the emission of greenhouse gases is certainly an urgent need if we are going to address the root cause of climate change. However, the existing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is already sufficient to cause extreme climate-related events, as well as other anomalies during the next few decades. Cities occupy the center stage of discussion about the mitigation of greenhouse gases and adapting to the expected impacts of climate change. Cities in Asia in particular are already witnessing the impacts of climate change–induced disasters such as flooding, water stresses in summer, intense rainfall-induced landslides, and strong typhoons. Cities in Asia have great potential to incorporate strategies for reducing the root causes of climate change by changing people’s lifestyles, increasing 3R’s, enhancing resource efficiency, and other actions. Cities also must create strategies to combat increasing climate change–induced crises. From the reduction of poverty to the creation of new employment opportunities, these initiatives require cities to innovate and act smartly by encompassing climate change impacts.

Disaster and Climate Change Education in Pakistan

Pakistan is vulnerable to wide range of hazards and rooting from weather, hydrological, geophysical and human induced disasters. In the past three decades, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological disasters including floods, extreme temperatures, torrential and prolonged rainfall, drought and storms. In this regard, efforts have been made by the government to endorse disaster and climate change education, and so far variety of initiatives and activities have been planned and some of them implemented. Because, Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005–2015, priority for action-3 emphasises the role of knowledge and education, and stress on formal and non-formal education and awareness-raising as an important component of disaster risk reduction strategy. Keeping in view this changing scenario, the government of Pakistan has developed the national climate change policy 2012, which clearly pinpointed the need for disaster and climate change education and development of curricula with particular emphasis on disaster and climate change, and its introduction in the country education system. The policy also highlighted to ensure inclusion of climate change education and training as a compulsory subject in the forest education system. In order to enhance the human capacity in the field of disaster and climate change education, the government has also taken the responsibility of sending young scientists and students to reputed institutions abroad for higher studies. In addition to this, it is pertinent to encourage and strengthen the existing disaster and climate change science, in the related institutions and universities through technical and financial support. The national disaster management plan 2012–2022 also highlighted that research need to be carried out on the challenges of disasters and climate change issues. These measures if taken care of in policy, plans and programs will definitely lead to mitigate and minimize the extent of damages in anticipation to the changing climate scenario. This chapter discusses the disaster and climate change education, Pakistan’s vulnerability to Disaster and Climate Change, Growth and Development of Disaster’s Legislations and Institutions, Disaster and Climate Change Education at School, College, University, Professional and Technical Institutions, National Institute for Disaster Management, Religious Institutions, Community Level, and in the State Departments, Civil Services Academies and promotion of Research environment in the country.

Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk: The Pakistan Context

In this chapter an attempt has been to highlight the concept of hazard, vulnerability, capacity and risk. These disaster terminologies were discussed taking help from the latest available literature. All these concepts have been supported with examples from the real world situations. Additionally, various tools and techniques have been discussed for carrying out hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and management. The chapter also elaborated the hazard profile of Pakistan, which specifically focuses on the frequently occurring hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, drought, GLOF, cyclones, heat waves etc. In Pakistan, the massive 2005 earthquake was a turning point in disaster risk management system. As Pakistan has a long history of natural hazards and almost every year, the impacts of disasters put extra pressure on the country budget. Looking to the transition in economic system, the importance of disaster risk reduction (DRR) was realized and the national disaster management commission (NDMC) was established in 2006 to proactively respond to disasters. In this regard, national disaster management authority (NDMA), a focus body was assigned a task to implement policies, strategies and programs of disaster risk reduction. Eventually, national disaster risk management framework (NDRMF) was developed in 2007, which provides guidelines for all the key stakeholders and in 2013 national disaster risk reduction policy (NDRRP) was developed. However, there is a need of sustainable socio-economic and environmental development to properly mainstream DRR into policies and programs and especially to cater the poor and marginalized people of the country. To make the country more resilient, to a wide range of disasters, there is an emergent and consist need of enhancement in social, physical, economic and institutional capacity both at national and local level.

Gender and Disaster Risk Reduction in Pakistan

The significance of promoting disaster risk reduction at international, national and local levels has been recognized in the UN-World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR). Under the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005–2015, all nations were agreed in 2005 to prepare National disaster risk reduction plan specifically focusing on five priority areas. In this perspective, the Pakistan National Disaster Management Plan was developed in 2012 as a part of institutionalization process. This plan especially attempts to take care of vulnerable peoples such as women, marginalized people, elderly people and disabled people and also clarify the roles of the national and local governments and residents for each type of disaster. When disaster takes place, it does not discriminate the gender and its impacts vary for male and female. In this connection, the Pakistan national climate change policy 2013 also intensifies the measures to mitigate the damages by disasters and to ensure that the elderly, the disabled, children and women get particular focus in evacuation strategies. The analysis further reveals that there should be disaster management training especially for vulnerable groups of people such as the elderly, disabled, children, and pregnant women and this need to be implemented in close coordination with community. It has been found that in any disaster the worst affected section of the community is the women and children and its impact varies depending on resilience capacity of individuals, households and community and to recover from the impacts of disasters. Higher the vulnerability maximum is the impact of disasters. In addition to women, children and disables, usually hit the hard because of their high vulnerability and low resilience. The chapter also discusses the tools for gender mainstreaming and engendered government policy, women and disaster impacts, gender in recovery phase, causes of women vulnerability, women are at risk and gender and DRR in Pakistan

Disaster Resilience: Generic Overview and Pakistan Context

The concept of resilience has been widely used in the disaster risk reduction perspective. Disaster resilience is the capacity to prepare, respond and recover from the impacts of disasters. Building disaster resilience dealt with proofing, adaptation and mitigation. It improves one’s ability to minimise the effects of adverse events. Disaster risk management ensure the risk reduction, enhance resilience, in addition to building effective response and recovery mechanism. The United Nations Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA): Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disaster is the agreed framework for making the world safer from the impacts of disasters and building resilience.