Audrius Dedele

Development of Land Use Regression Models for PM2.5, PM2.5 Absorbance, PM10 and PMcoarse in 20 European Study Areas; Results of the ESCAPE Project

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM(2.5), PM(2.5) absorbance, PM(10), and PM(coarse) were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R(2)) was 71% for PM(2.5) (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R(2) was higher for PM(2.5) absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PM(coarse) (median 68%, range 32- 81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R(2) was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R(2) results were on average 8-11% lower than model R(2). Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

Ambient air pollution and low birthweight: a European cohort study (ESCAPE)

BACKGROUND Ambient air pollution has been associated with restricted fetal growth, which is linked with adverse respiratory health in childhood. We assessed the effect of maternal exposure to low concentrations of ambient air pollution on birthweight. METHODS We pooled data from 14 population-based mother-child cohort studies in 12 European countries. Overall, the study population included 74 178 women who had singleton deliveries between Feb 11, 1994, and June 2, 2011, and for whom information about infant birthweight, gestational age, and sex was available. The primary outcome of interest was low birthweight at term (weight <2500 g at birth after 37 weeks of gestation). Mean concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and between 2·5 μm and 10 μm during pregnancy were estimated at maternal home addresses with temporally adjusted land-use regression models, as was PM2·5 absorbance and concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides. We also investigated traffic density on the nearest road and total traffic load. We calculated pooled effect estimates with random-effects models. FINDINGS A 5 μg/m(3) increase in concentration of PM2·5 during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of low birthweight at term (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·18, 95% CI 1·06-1·33). An increased risk was also recorded for pregnancy concentrations lower than the present European Union annual PM2·5 limit of 25 μg/m(3) (OR for 5 μg/m(3) increase in participants exposed to concentrations of less than 20 μg/m(3) 1·41, 95% CI 1·20-1·65). PM10 (OR for 10 μg/m(3) increase 1·16, 95% CI 1·00-1·35), NO2 (OR for 10 μg/m(3) increase 1·09, 1·00-1·19), and traffic density on nearest street (OR for increase of 5000 vehicles per day 1·06, 1·01-1·11) were also associated with increased risk of low birthweight at term. The population attributable risk estimated for a reduction in PM2·5 concentration to 10 μg/m(3) during pregnancy corresponded to a decrease of 22% (95% CI 8-33%) in cases of low birthweight at term. INTERPRETATION Exposure to ambient air pollutants and traffic during pregnancy is associated with restricted fetal growth. A substantial proportion of cases of low birthweight at term could be prevented in Europe if urban air pollution was reduced. FUNDING The European Union.

Accessibility and use of urban green spaces, and cardiovascular health: findings from a Kaunas cohort study

BackgroundThe aims of this study were to explore associations of the distance and use of urban green spaces with the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its risk factors, and to evaluate the impact of the accessibility and use of green spaces on the incidence of CVD among the population of Kaunas city (Lithuania).MethodsWe present the results from a Kaunas cohort study on the access to and use of green spaces, the association with cardiovascular risk factors and other health-related variables, and the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. A random sample of 5,112 individuals aged 45-72 years was screened in 2006-2008. During the mean 4.41 years follow-up, there were 83 deaths from CVD and 364 non-fatal cases of CVD among persons free from CHD and stroke at the baseline survey. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for data analysis.ResultsWe found that the distance from people’s residence to green spaces was not related to the prevalence of health-related variables. However, the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus were significantly lower among park users than among non-users. During the follow up, an increased risk of non-fatal and fatal CVD combined was observed for those who lived ≥629.61 m from green spaces (3rd tertile of distance to green space) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36), and the risk for non-fatal CVD–for those who lived ≥347.81 m (2nd and 3rd tertile) and were not park users (HR = 1.66) as compared to men and women who lived 347.8 m or less (1st tertile) from green space. Men living further away from parks (3rd tertile) had a higher risk of non-fatal and fatal CVD combined, compared to those living nearby (1st tertile) (HR = 1.51). Compared to park users living nearby (1st tertile), a statistically significantly increased risk of non-fatal CVD was observed for women who were not park users and living farther away from parks (2nd and 3rd tertile) (HR = 2.78).ConclusionOur analysis suggests public health policies aimed at promoting healthy lifestyles in urban settings could produce cardiovascular benefits.

The relationship of green space, depressive symptoms and perceived general health in urban population.

Aims:To assess the relationship between green space proximity, use of green space and depressive symptoms and perceived general health among a random sample men and women. Methods: Cross-sectional study of a population-based sample of 6,944 45–72 year old Kaunas city residents. Self-reported questionnaires provided information on sociodemographic variables, health behaviours, depressive symptoms and poor and very poor perceived general health. Residential proximity to green spaces was defined as living less than 300 m, within interval of 300–999 m, and equal or more than 1 km from a park. The use of the park was divided into two categories: no park use or use <4hrs/week and use of the park ≥4 h/week. The study received approval from the Kaunas Regional Research Ethics Committee. Multiple logistic regression assessed the associations controlling for confounding variables. Results: The prevalence of depressive symptoms and poor and or very poor perceived general health was higher in women than in men. The association between the use of the park and residential proximity to the park revealed that women living >300 m from a green space and who used the space ≥4 h/week showed higher odds 1.92 (1.11–3.3) and 1.68 (0.81–3.48) of depressive symptoms and poor and very poor perceived general health as compared to those who used the park <4 hrs/week and residential proximity was >300 m. Conclusions: The results of our study confirmed an association between use of the green space, residential proximity, and depressive symptoms and poor and very poor perceived general health among women only.

Impact of Residential Greenness on Preschool Children’s Emotional and Behavioral Problems

This study investigated the effects of the proximity to city parks and the influence of residential greenness on children’s emotional and behavioral problems. This cross-sectional study included 1,468 mothers of children (ages 4 to 6) who were residents of the city of Kaunas, Lithuania. The mothers and their children were enrolled in the FP7 PHENOTYPE project study. The mothers reported on their parenting stress and their children’s mental health. Residential greenness was characterized as an average of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a 300 m buffer around each home address, and the proximity to city parks was defined as the distance from the subject’s residence to the nearest park. Linear regression models were used to investigate the association among the residence distances from city parks, greenness and children’s mental health problems. Farther residential distance from city parks was associated with worse mental health (except for the emotional problems subscale) in children whose mothers had a lower education level. More residential greenness was associated with worse mental health (more conditional problems and less prosocial behavior) in children whose mothers had a higher education level. These relationships have important implications for the prevention of emotional and behavioral problems in children.

Surrounding greenness, proximity to city parks and pregnancy outcomes in Kaunas cohort study.

There is increasing evidence that green space can improve the health and well-being of urban residents. However, there has been no consistent evidence of the effect of city parks on reproductive health. We investigated whether surrounding greenness levels and/or distance to city parks affect birth outcomes. This study was based on 3292 singleton live-births from the Kaunas birth cohort, Lithuania (2007–2009), who were enrolled in the FP7 PHENOTYPE project study. Residential surrounding greenness level was ascertained as average of satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) within buffers of 100 m, 300 m, and 500 m of each maternal home and distance to a city park was defined as distance to boundaries of the nearest city park. For each indicator of green space exposure, linear or logistic regression models were constructed to estimate change in birth outcomes adjusted for relevant covariates. An increase in distance to a city parks was associated with an increase in risk of preterm birth and decrease of gestational age. We found a statistically significant association between low surrounding greenness and term low birth weight. After assessing effect modification based on the low surrounding greenness (NDVI-500 < median) and the distance to city parks (>1000 m), we found increased risks for low birth weight (OR 2.23, 1.20–4.15), term low birth weight (OR 2.97, 1.04–8.45) and preterm birth (OR 1.77, 1.10–2.81) for subjects with low surrounding greenness and farther distance from a park. Both higher surrounding greenness level and proximity to park have beneficial effects on pregnancy outcomes. A beneficial park effect on foetal growth is most apparent in the environment with low surrounding greenness level. Further investigation is needed to confirm this association.

Development of West-European PM2.5 and NO2 land use regression models incorporating satellite-derived and chemical transport modelling data

Satellite-derived (SAT) and chemical transport model (CTM) estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 are increasingly used in combination with Land Use Regression (LUR) models. We aimed to compare the contribution of SAT and CTM data to the performance of LUR PM2.5 and NO2 models for Europe. Four sets of models, all including local traffic and land use variables, were compared (LUR without SAT or CTM, with SAT only, with CTM only, and with both SAT and CTM). LUR models were developed using two monitoring data sets: PM2.5 and NO2 ground level measurements from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) and from the European AIRBASE network. LUR PM2.5 models including SAT and SAT+CTM explained ~60% of spatial variation in measured PM2.5 concentrations, substantially more than the LUR model without SAT and CTM (adjR2: 0.33-0.38). For NO2 CTM improved prediction modestly (adjR2: 0.58) compared to models without SAT and CTM (adjR2: 0.47-0.51). Both monitoring networks are capable of producing models explaining the spatial variance over a large study area. SAT and CTM estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 significantly improved the performance of high spatial resolution LUR models at the European scale for use in large epidemiological studies.

Risk of hypertension related to road traffic noise among reproductive-age women

Chronic noise exposure is associated with adverse pathophysiological effects, which may contribute to the progression of hypertension. However, evidence supporting its effect on women is still inconsistent. The aim of the study was to examine the hypertension risk related to road traffic noise in residential settings in an urban community amongst reproductive-aged women. Cross-sectional study data including 3,121 pregnant women, 20-45 years old, and a geographic information system (GIS) to assess the average road noise (LAeq 24 hr) for every subject at the current residential address were used. Effects on physician-diagnosed hypertension were estimated by logistic regression with adjustments for age, social status, marital status, education, alcohol consumption, ethnic group, parity, body mass index, chronic disease, and exposure duration. The prevalence of hypertension amongst women aged 20-45 years in the lowest exposure category was 13.1% in comparison to 13.6% and 18.1% amongst those exposed to the medium and the highest exposure category, respectively. After making adjustments for the selected variables, no exposure effects [Odds ratio (OR) ≈ 1.0] were noted in the medium exposure category [51-60 dB(A)]. However, a slight increase was noted in the highest exposure category [≥61 dB(A)), OR 1.36; 95% CI 0.86-2.15]. The effect was more pronounced amongst women aged 30-45 years and a positive exposure-response relation was indicated for hypertension: An effect was seen at noise levels 51-60 dB(A) (OR = 1.03; 95% CI 0.72-1.49) and at >61 dB(A) (OR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.01-3.72). The present study shows some evidence for an association between the residential road traffic noise and hypertension amongst reproductive-aged women, and an exposure-response relationship.

The Influence of Proximity to City Parks on Blood Pressure in Early Pregnancy

This study investigated the effect of proximity to city parks on blood pressure categories during the first trimester of pregnancy. This cross-sectional study included 3,416 female residents of the city of Kaunas, Lithuania, who were enrolled in the FP7 PHENOTYPE project study. The women were classified into four blood pressure categories: optimal, normal, high-normal blood pressure, and hypertension. Multinomial regression models were used to investigate the association between three women’s groups with respect to the residence distances from city parks (300, >300–1,000, and >1,000 m) and four blood pressure categories. When using the optimal blood pressure as the reference group, the crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) for normal blood pressure and for high-normal blood pressure proved to be statistically significantly higher after the inclusion of the selected covariates into the regression analysis. The probability of normal blood pressure increased by 9%, and that of high-normal blood pressure—by 14% for every 300 m increase in the distance to green spaces. The findings of this study suggest a beneficial impact of nearby city parks on blood pressure amongst 20- to 45-year-old women. This relationship has important implications for the prevention of hypertension and the reduction of hypertension-related morbidity.

Associations between neighbourhood greenness and asthma in preschool children in Kaunas, Lithuania: a case–control study

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between surrounding greenness levels and asthma among children, and to explore a possible change of this association by the distance of the residence to a city park. Design A nested case–control study. Setting Children aged 4−6 years residing at their current address since birth in Kaunas, Lithuania, whose mothers were recruited in 2007–2009 to the KANC newborns cohort study. Participants The participants were 1489 children whose parents in 2012–2013 filled in the questionnaires and agreed to participate in the study. Primary and secondary outcome measures We estimated clinically diagnosed asthma risk factors. The surrounding greenness was measured as the average of the satellite-based Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within the buffers of 100, 300 and 500 m from each childs home address, and the distance to a city park was defined as the distance to the nearest city park. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to study the relationship between the greenness exposures and asthma adjusted for relevant covariates. Results An increase in the NDVI (>median) in buffers of 100, 300 and 500 m was associated with a slightly increased risk of asthma, while an IQR increase in NDVI-100 m statistically significantly increased the risk of asthma (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.85). The stratified analysis by surrounding greenness revealed indications of stronger associations for children with higher surrounding greenness (NDVI-100>median) and those living farther away from parks (>1000 m), compared to NDVI-100≤median and the distance to a city park >1000 m (OR 1.47, 95% CI 0.56 to 3.87). Conclusions A higher level of the surrounding greenness was associated with a slightly increased relative risk of asthma in children. Further investigation is needed to elucidate the influence of city parks and neighbourhood greenness levels on asthma.