Augustine C. Arize

Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC's

This article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries (LDCs) over the quarterly period 1973–1996. Estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using Johansens multivariate procedure. Estimates of the short-run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error-correction technique. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, approximating exchange-rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short-run and the long-run in each of the 13 LDCs. These effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants.

Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks

Abstract This paper provides new evidence on the long-run convergence between imports and exports in 50 countries over the quarterly period 1973:2 to 1998:1. Cointegration analyses are based on the Johansen [Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrating vector autoregressive models . New York: Oxford University Press.] and the Stock and Watson [ J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83 (1988) 1097.] system approaches. Evidence of stability of the cointegration space is examined using the SupF test developed by Hansen [ J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 10 (1992) 321]. Based on the Johansen technique, we find evidence in favor of cointegration in 35 of the 50 countries. In addition, cointegration is confirmed for all countries (except Mexico) using the Stock and Watson test. This finding indicates that macroeconomic policies have been effective in the long-run and suggests that these countries are largely not in violation of their international budget constraint. We find evidence that in most of the countries where the slope coefficient on the export variable is positive, the cointegrating coefficient is also unity. The cointegration space appears stable for most of the countries. Nonetheless, the results suggest that countries in the regions of the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe have cointegrating relations that are more unstable than those in other regions.

A re-examination of the demand for money in small developing economies

This paper re-examines the money-demand function in three small open economies of Asia: Korea, Pakistan and Singapore. In addition to using the relatively new procedure of error-correction modelling, the roles of variables such as (a) the expected change in the exchange rate, (b) foregin interest rates, and (c) foreign exchange risks on money demand are examined. In testing the importance of these variables in the money-demand function, special attention is paid to testing the assumptions of the classical linear regression model. The sample period for each country spans from 1973:1 through 1990:1. The empirical results suggest that the error-correction specification performs very well. In addition to the traditional variables, the results suggest that at least some measure of foreign monetary developments appear to have some significant effect on money-demand behaviour in these small developing economies.

Does exchange-rate volatility depress export flows: The case of LDCs

In the area of international trade, few studies have examined whether increases in exchange-rate volatility depress trade flows of LDCs. The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the impact of exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of 10 developing countries over the quarterly period 1973–98. The econometric analysis exploits the theory of cointegration, given the obvious nonstationarity of the data. Estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using Johansens multivariate procedure. Evidence of stability of the cointegrating space is examined using Hansens [1992a] tests. Short-run dynamic modelling is accomplished using the error-correction technique, and the stability test results are obtained using Hansen [1992b] tests. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that increases in the exchange-rate volatility exert a significant negative effect upon export demand in both the short-run and the long-run in most of the countries studied. These effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants.

Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows: The experience of eight European economies

Abstract This paper examines the impact of real exchange-rate volatility on the trade flows of eight European economies in the context of a multivariate error-correction model. The advantages of this statistical approach vis-a-vis earlier approaches is that it provides more efficient short-run and long-run coefficient estimates and avoids the problems of spurious regressions. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate, approximating exchange-rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect upon export demand in both the short-run and the long-run, regardless of whether the countries are members of the European Exchange-rate Mechanism (ERM) or not.

Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach

Abstract This paper investigates the time-series evidence of asymmetric reverting patterns in stock returns that is attributable to “contrarian profitability.” Using asymmetric nonlinear smooth-transition (ANST) GARCH(M) models, we find that, for monthly excess returns of US market indexes over the period of 1926:01–1997:12, negative returns on average reverted more quickly, with a greater reverting magnitude, to positive returns than positive returns revert to negative returns. The results are quite consistent when the models are implemented not only for the different sample periods, such as 1926:01–1987:09 and 1947:01–1997:12, but also for portfolios with different characteristics, such as different firm-size portfolios and Fama–French risk-adjusted factor portfolios. We interpret the asymmetrical reversion as evidence of stock market overreaction.

Structural breaks, cointegration, and speed of adjustment Evidence from 12 LDCs money demand

Abstract This article estimates a theoretically coherent and empirically robust money demand function for 12 developing countries. The modeling procedure not only tests for a regime shift in the cointegrating equation, but also in the error correction model. Five specific hypotheses are examined. The article demonstrates that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between real M1 or M2 balances, real income, inflation, exchange rate, foreign exchange risk, and foreign interest rates in the countries studied. The study provides information on the speed of adjustment to equilibrium and the median and mean time lags for adjustment of real money balances to changes in each determinant. Although our results provide more evidence against M1 than M2, this study clearly establishes that both M1 and M2 must be considered as viable policy tools for less developed countries.

Cointegration Test of a Long-Run Relation Between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance

This paper uses newly developed cointegration methodologies to examine the long run relation between the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance in nine Asian economies over the present flexible exchange rate period, 1973Q1 through 1991Q1. The results indicate that there exists a positive and significant long-run “ statistical equilibrium” between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate in Asia. The approach adopted in this study is found to be an acceptable substitute for testing the Marshall-Lerner condition of stability. [F31, F14]

The supply and demand for imports and exports in a simultaneous model

Previous studies on the behaviour of aggregate exports and imports have tended to ignore the simultaneous relationship between quantity and price. This paper investigates the price responsiveness of export and import demand and supply in eight African countries. The results indicate that export demand price elasticities are smaller when the sample is African. The import supply and demand elasticities were found to be generally large. The Marshall–Lerner condition of balance of payment stability is found to be easily satisfied. A positively sloped function of export supply is found to exist for a majority of countries in the sample. The average time lag of export supply is found to be about a year. The disequilibrium model is found to be more appropriate for import demand, import supply and export supply.

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on U.S. Imports: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper we obtain and interpret new estimates of the short- and long-run influence of exchange-rate volatility (or risk) on the import flows of the United States, in the generalized floating exchange-rate period. The major finding is that there is a significant long-run negative effect of exchange-rate volatility on the volume of imports, as well as, a significant short-run negative effect. Therefore, it can be argued that exchange-rate volatility will have significant effects on the allocation of resources by market participants and that policy-makers can no longer rely on an import demand with only conventional variables for long-term international trade planning, forecasting and policy formulation. [F14, F31]