Aurélie Lemmens

Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn

In this article, the authors explore the bagging and boosting classification techniques. They apply the two techniques to a customer database of an anonymous U.S. wireless telecommunications company, and both significantly improve accuracy in predicting churn. This higher predictive performance could ultimately lead to incremental profits for companies that use these methods. Furthermore, the results recommend the use of a balanced sampling scheme when predicting a rare event from large data sets, but this requires an appropriate bias correction.

Analytics for Customer Engagement

In this article, we discuss the state of the art of models for customer engagement and the problems that are inherent to calibrating and implementing these models. The authors first provide an overview of the data available for customer analytics and discuss recent developments. Next, the authors discuss the models used for studying customer engagement, where they distinguish the following stages: customer acquisition, customer development, and customer retention. Finally, they discuss several organizational issues of analytics for customer engagement, which constitute barriers for introducing analytics for customer engagement.

Polymorphisms of the OXTR gene explain why sales professionals love to help customers.

Polymorphisms of the OXTR gene affect peoples social interaction styles in various social encounters: carriers of the OXTR GG, compared to the OXTR AA/AG in general, are more motivated to interact socially and detect social salience. We focus on sales professionals operating in knowledge intensive organizations. Study 1, with a sample of 141 sales people, shows that carriers of the OXTR GG allele, compared to the OXTR AA/AG allele, are more motivated to help customers than to manipulatively impose goods/services on them. Study 2, using genomic functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) on a sample of 21 sales professionals processing facial pictures with different emotional valences, investigates key nuclei of social brain regions (SBRs). Compared to OXTR AA/AG carriers, OXTR GG carriers experience greater effective connectivity between SBRs of interest measured by Granger causality tests using univariate Haugh tests. In addition, the multivariate El-Himdi and Roy tests demonstrate that the amygdala, prefrontal cortex, and pars opercularis (inferior frontal gyrus) play key roles when processing emotional expressions. The bilateral amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) show significantly greater clout—influence on other brain regions—for GG allele carriers than non-carriers; likewise, the bilateral pars opercularis, left amygdala, and left mPFC are more receptive to activity in other brain regions among GG allele carriers than AG/AA allele carriers are. Thus, carriers of the OXTR GG allele are more sensitive to changes in emotional cues, enhancing social salience. To our knowledge, this is the first study on how insights from imaging genetics help understanding of the social motivation of people operating in a professional setting.