Aurélien Madouasse

Calf-Level Factors Associated with Bovine Neonatal Pancytopenia – A Multi-Country Case-Control Study

Bovine neonatal pancytopenia (BNP), a high fatality condition causing haemorrhages in calves aged less than 4 weeks, was first reported in 2007 in Germany and subsequently observed at low incidence in other European countries and New Zealand. A multi-country matched case-control study was conducted in 2011 to identify calf-level risk factors for BNP. 405 BNP cases were recruited from 330 farms in Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands by laboratory confirmation of farmer-reported cases. Up to four calves of similar age from the same farm were selected as controls (1154 calves). Risk factor data were collected by questionnaire. Multivariable modelling using conditional logistic regression indicated that PregSure®BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) vaccination of the dam was strongly associated with BNP cases (adjusted matched Odds Ratio - amOR 17.8 first lactation dams; 95% confidence interval – ci 2.4, 134.4; p = 0.005), and second or more lactation PregSure-vaccinated dams were more likely to have a case than first lactation vaccinated dams (amOR 2.2 second lactation; ci 1.1, 4.3; p = 0.024; amOR 5.3 third or more lactation; ci 2.9, 9.8; p = <0.001). Feeding colostrum from other cows was strongly associated with BNP if the dam was not PregSure-vaccinated (amOR 30.5; ci 2.1, 440.5; p = 0.012), but the effect was less if the dam was PregSure-vaccinated (amOR 2.1; ci 1.1, 4.0; p = 0.024). Feeding exclusively dam’s milk was a higher risk than other types of milk (amOR 3.4; ci 1.6, 7.5; p = 0.002). The population attributable fractions were 0.84 (ci 0.68, 0.92) for PregSure vaccination, 0.13 (ci 0.06, 0.19) for feeding other cows’ colostrum, and 0.15 (ci 0.08, 0.22) for feeding dam’s milk. No other calf-level factors were identified, suggesting that there are other important factors that are outside the scope of this study, such as genetics, which explain why BNP develops in some PregSure-colostrum-exposed calves but not in others.

Use of monthly collected milk yields for the detection of the emergence of the 2007 French BTV epizootic.

Two culicoides-borne diseases, Bluetongue (BTV) and Schmallenberg, have emerged in the European cattle population since 2006. Other diseases transmitted by these vectors could emerge. This justifies the development of syndromic surveillance programs whereby one or several indicators would be routinely monitored for the early detection of emerging diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate milk yield from milk recording in dairy cattle as an indicator to be included in an emerging disease surveillance system. It was hypothesized that emergences would result in episodes of low milk production clustered in space and time. The 2007 BTV epizootic in France was used as a case study. Because it had already emerged in neighbouring countries, the disease emergence was expected and notification was mandatory. Herd-test-day milk productions were predicted for the entire country for 2006 and 2007 from herd historical data using linear mixed models. The differences between observed and predicted milk productions were averaged per week and per municipality and used as input for a space-time prospective scan statistic. Log likelihood ratios (LLR) associated with clusters were used to define alarms. The threshold chosen was a trade-off between detection timeliness and the number of false alarms per week. The first four BTV notifications occurred on the 12th (two notifications), 13th and 27th of July 2007. The 12th of July was considered to be the date of emergence. Alarms occurring before the 1st of March 2007 were considered to be false alarms. Using an LLR of 50, there were an average of 1.7 false alarms per week and the BTV emergence was detected seven weeks after emergence. Using an LLR of 100, there were an average of 0.8 false alarms per week and the BTV emergence was detected 9 weeks after emergence. Detection may have been delayed because of a discontinuation of milk recording between mid-July and mid-August. The first cluster with an LLR>100 located in the emergence area was further investigated. A difference between observed and predicted production of >1 kg/cow/day was observed around the time of emergence. However, a difference of equal magnitude was observed during the year preceding the outbreak. Milk production predicted from herd history alone did not allow the detection of the 2007 BTV emergence in France. Further research should be conducted on improving the prediction of test-day milk yield and on combining it with other indicators based on routinely collected data.

Evaluation of a Continuous Indicator for Syndromic Surveillance through Simulation. Application to Vector Borne Disease Emergence Detection in Cattle Using Milk Yield

Two vector borne diseases, caused by the Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses respectively, have emerged in the European ruminant populations since 2006. Several diseases are transmitted by the same vectors and could emerge in the future. Syndromic surveillance, which consists in the routine monitoring of indicators for the detection of adverse health events, may allow an early detection. Milk yield is routinely measured in a large proportion of dairy herds and could be incorporated as an indicator in a surveillance system. However, few studies have evaluated continuous indicators for syndromic surveillance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework for the quantification of both disease characteristics and model predictive abilities that are important for a continuous indicator to be sensitive, timely and specific for the detection of a vector-borne disease emergence. Emergences with a range of spread characteristics and effects on milk production were simulated. Milk yields collected monthly in 48 713 French dairy herds were used to simulate 576 disease emergence scenarios. First, the effect of disease characteristics on the sensitivity and timeliness of detection were assessed: Spatio-temporal clusters of low milk production were detected with a scan statistic using the difference between observed and simulated milk yields as input. In a second step, the system specificity was evaluated by running the scan statistic on the difference between observed and predicted milk yields, in the absence of simulated emergence. The timeliness of detection depended mostly on how easily the disease spread between and within herds. The time and location of the emergence or adding random noise to the simulated effects had a limited impact on the timeliness of detection. The main limitation of the system was the low specificity i.e. the high number of clusters detected from the difference between observed and predicted productions, in the absence of disease.

Explaining variability in first grazing season heifer growth combining individually measured parasitological and clinical indicators with exposure to gastrointestinal nematode infection based on grazing management practice.

The objective of our study was to explain the variability of average daily weight gain (ADWG) due to gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) infection for 291 non treated first grazing season (FGS) heifers, from 12 independent groups in the western part of France, by combining parasitological and clinical indicators at individual level and grazing management indicators at group level. Parasitological indicators were faecal egg count (FEC), anti Ostertagia ostertagi antibody level (Ostertagia ODR), and pepsinogen level. Clinical indicators were diarrhea score (DISCO) and breech soiling score (BSS). At group level, grazing management practice (GMP), based on three variables (supplementation, month of turnout, grazing season duration), was clustered into three categories reflecting low, medium or high exposure (EXP) to GIN. Depending on the groups, turnout was from mid-March to early July and housing was from mid-October to late November, with a FGS duration ranging from 4 to 8.4 months. At turnout, the mean age of heifers was 8 months (range: 6-16 months) and they weighed between 175 and 268kg. In each GMP category, FEC significantly decreased between the mid-season and the housing, while Ostertagia ODR and pepsinogen level increased gradually throughout the grazing season. In contrast, clinical indicators did not show any seasonal variation. In a multivariate linear model, 22% of the ADWG variability was significantly explained by two individual indicators (Ostertagia ODR: 12.6%, DISCO: 4.8%) and by the group indicator (GMP category: 4.8%). ADWG losses due to GIN exposure (Ostertagia ODR) were estimated up to 39kg per heifer for the overall grazing season. For groups within the low EXP category the difference between animals with low (<697g/day) or high (>697g/day) ADWG was explained by the clinical indicator DISCO. In contrast, for groups within the medium and high EXP categories this difference was explained by a parasitological indicator (Ostertagia ODR). This study highlighted the value of combining both grazing management (group level) and parasitological (individual level) indicators to assess the impact of GIN on ADWG of FGS heifers. As a result, this combination might allow a better discrimination of animals or groups that may be in need of treatment in a targeting selective treatment approach.

Application of syndromic surveillance on routinely collected cattle reproduction and milk production data for the early detection of outbreaks of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses

This study aimed to evaluate the use of routinely collected reproductive and milk production data for the early detection of emerging vector-borne diseases in cattle in the Netherlands and the Flanders region of Belgium (i.e., the northern part of Belgium). Prospective space-time cluster analyses on residuals from a model on milk production were carried out to detect clusters of reduced milk yield. A CUSUM algorithm was used to detect temporal aberrations in model residuals of reproductive performance models on two indicators of gestation length. The Bluetongue serotype-8 (BTV-8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) epidemic of 2011 were used as case studies to evaluate the sensitivity and timeliness of these methods. The methods investigated in this study did not result in a more timely detection of BTV-8 and SBV in the Netherlands and BTV-8 in Belgium given the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. This could be due to (i) the large geographical units used in the analyses (country, region and province level), and (ii) the high level of sensitivity of the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. Nevertheless, it might be worthwhile to use a syndromic surveillance system based on non-specific animal health data in real-time alongside regular surveillance, to increase the sense of urgency and to provide valuable quantitative information for decision makers in the initial phase of an emerging disease outbreak.

Devising an indicator to detect mid-term abortions in dairy cattle: a first step towards syndromic surveillance of abortive diseases.

Bovine abortion surveillance is essential for human and animal health because it plays an important role in the early warning of several diseases. Due to the limited sensitivity of traditional surveillance systems, there is a growing interest for the development of syndromic surveillance. Our objective was to assess whether, routinely collected, artificial insemination (AI) data could be used, as part of a syndromic surveillance system, to devise an indicator of mid-term abortions in dairy cattle herds in France. A mid-term abortion incidence rate (MAIR) was computed as the ratio of the number of mid-term abortions to the number of female-weeks at risk. A mid-term abortion was defined as a return-to-service (i.e. a new AI) taking place 90 to 180 days after the previous AI. Weekly variations in the MAIR in heifers and parous cows were modeled with a time-dependent Poisson model at the département level (French administrative division) during the period of 2004 to 2010. The usefulness of monitoring this indicator to detect a disease-related increase in mid-term abortions was evaluated using data from the 2007–2008 episode of bluetongue serotype 8 (BT8) in France. An increase in the MAIR was identified in heifers and parous cows in 47% (n = 24) and 71% (n = 39) of the départements. On average, the weekly MAIR among heifers increased by 3.8% (min-max: 0.02–57.9%) when the mean number of BT8 cases that occurred in the previous 8 to 13 weeks increased by one. The weekly MAIR among parous cows increased by 1.4% (0.01–8.5%) when the mean number of BT8 cases occurring in the previous 6 to 12 weeks increased by one. These results underline the potential of the MAIR to identify an increase in mid-term abortions and suggest that it is a good candidate for the implementation of a syndromic surveillance system for bovine abortions.

Evaluation of Two PCR Tests for Coxiella burnetii Detection in Dairy Cattle Farms Using Latent Class Analysis.

Different tests performed on bulk tank milk samples (BTM) are available to determine the C. burnetii status of herds. However, these tests, which are based on the detection of either antibodies directed against C. burnetii (ELISA) or bacterial DNA (PCR), have limitations. A currently disease-free herd infected in the past may continue to test positive with ELISA due to the persistence of antibodies in animals that were infected and that subsequently cleared the infection. Infectious herds can also be misclassified using PCR because of the absence of bacteria in the BTM when the test is performed. Recently, PCR has been used for bacterial DNA detection in the farm environment, which constitutes the main reservoir of C. burnetii. The objectives of this study were to assess and compare the sensitivities and specificities of one commonly used PCR test in BTM (PCR BTM) and of a PCR applied to environmental samples (PCR DUST) in dairy cattle farms. BTM and dust samples were collected (using environmental swabs) in 95 herds. The evaluation of the performance of the 2 tests was conducted using latent class models accounting for within herd disease dynamics. Parameter estimation was carried out using MCMC, within a Bayesian framework. Two types of priors were used for the specificity of PCR DUST. A model with a uniform prior on 0–1 fitted the data better than a model with a uniform prior on 0.95–1. With the best model PCR DUST had a lower sensitivity than PCR BTM (0.75 versus 0.83) and a specificity of 0.72. The moderately low value for the specificity of PCR DUST suggests that the presence of bacteria on farm is not always associated with persistent infections and shedding of bacteria in milk.

Herd-level animal management factors associated with the occurrence of bovine neonatal pancytopenia in calves in a multi-country study

Since 2007, mortality associated with a previously unreported haemorrhagic disease has been observed in young calves in several European countries. The syndrome, which has been named ‘bovine neonatal pancytopenia’ (BNP), is characterised by thrombocytopenia, leukocytopenia and a panmyelophthisis. A herd-level case-control study was conducted in four BNP affected countries (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) to identify herd management risk factors for BNP occurrence. Data were collected using structured face-to-face and telephone interviews of farm managers and their local veterinarians. In total, 363 case farms and 887 control farms were included in a matched multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis. Case-control status was strongly associated with the odds of herd level use of the vaccine PregSure® BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) (matched adjusted odds ratio (OR) 107.2; 95% CI: 41.0–280.1). This was also the case for the practices of feeding calves colostrum from the calf’s own dam (OR 2.0; 95% CI: 1.1–3.4) or feeding pooled colostrum (OR 4.1; 95% CI: 1.9–8.8). Given that the study had relatively high statistical power and represented a variety of cattle production and husbandry systems, it can be concluded with some confidence that no other herd level management factors are competent causes for a sufficient cause of BNP occurrence on herd level. It is suggested that genetic characteristics of the dams and BNP calves should be the focus of further investigations aimed at identifying the currently missing component causes that together with PregSure vaccination and colostrum feeding represent a sufficient cause for occurrence of BNP in calves.

Quantification of the increase in the frequency of early calving associated with late exposure to bluetongue virus serotype 8 in dairy cows: implications for syndromic surveillance

A recent study evaluating whether reproductive data could be used for syndromic surveillance found an increased frequency of early calving (calving occurring a few days earlier than expected) in areas exposed to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in northern Europe. A high proportion of herds infected during the 2006–2009 European outbreak were not reported through the surveillance system. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify the increase in the frequency of early calving associated with the exposure to BTV-8 in late gestation and (2) to determine whether this association could be found in populations exposed to BTV-8 but without reported clinical signs. Increases in frequency of early calving were quantified for cows in herds located in the 2007 outbreak area in France, reported or not as cases. Increases were detected for cows in both categories of herds with a larger effect in herds reported after clinical signs. Moreover, the largest effect was found for exposures occurring during the latest stage of pregnancy, suggesting that BTV infection could trigger calving in cows in late gestation, a few days earlier than expected. This is the first study quantifying the association between a viral infection and a shortened pregnancy length (still within a normal range). The high magnitude of the increase in frequency of early calving, their occurrence in herds from infected areas but not reported, and the short time interval between exposure and the occurrence of the event confirm the interest of using early calving as an indicator for syndromic surveillance.