Aviral Kumar Tiwari

Economic Growth and FDI in Asia: A Panel-Data Approach

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Asian countries. We did our analysis in the panel framework for the period 1986 to 2008. We also examined the nonlinearities associated with foreign direct investment and exports in the economic growth process of Asian countries under consideration. We find that both foreign direct investment and exports enhance the growth process. In addition, labour and capital also play an important role in the growth of Asian countries. We suggest an export-led growth path particularly at the initial stage of growth and in the later period, dependence on FDI might be a feasible option.

Primary Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: Evidence from India

Primary Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: Evidence from India This study examined static and dynamic causal relationships between primary energy consumption, gross domestic product, and CO2 emissions for India during the period 1970-2007. We tested for the presence of unit root and cointegration among the variables by incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks in the data. The causality is examined between test variables using Grangers approach (in VAR framework), and Dolado and Lütkepohls approach. We find evidence of no cointegration relationship among the test variables in the presence of structural breaks. Further, static analysis shows that primary energy consumption does not granger-cause GDP, whereas GDP granger-causes primary energy consumption. The dynamic analysis shows conflicting results on the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP. Since GDP explains 75.9% of the forecast error variance of primary energy consumption, whereas primary energy consumption explains only 0.96% of the forecast error variance of GDP, we can suggest that India should adopt policies that reduce energy consumption.

Analyzing Time-Frequency Relationship between Interest Rate, Stock Price and Exchange Rate Through Continuous Wavelet

In this study we investigate and identify the patterns of co-movement of interest rate, stock price and exchange rate in India in the period between July 1997 and December 2010 using the cross-wavelet power, the cross-wavelet coherency, and the phase difference methodologies. Our empirical findings suggest that stock prices, exchange rates and interest rates are linked. The cross wavelet results show that stock price movements are lagging both to the exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations. The interest rate lead over the stock price movements is even clearer, especially after 2006, and it suggests that the stock market follows the interest rate signals. Comparing results of WTC and XWT, we find very clear results of phase difference of lead–lag relationship between stock prices, exchange rates and interest rates.

DOES DEFENCE SPENDING STIMULATE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDIA? A REVISIT

This study reinvestigates the effect of defence spending on economic growth using Zivot and Andrews and Lee and Strazicich, structural unit root tests and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration in augmented version of Keynesian model for India. Study confirmed long run relationship among variables studied show that economic growth is positively affected by defence spending (also negative impact after a threshold point), investment and trade openness while negatively by interest rate. Granger causality analysis revealed bidirectional causal relationship between defence spending and economic growth as probed by variance decomposition approach.

Analyzing time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets

This study analyzed the time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency (WTC). The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicated that covariance between oil price and exchange rate is unable to give clear-cut results, but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10–15 months’ scale. These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain-based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate; however, in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.

Foreign Aid, FDI, Economic Freedom and Economic Growth in Asian Countries

This study examines the effectiveness of foreign aid, foreign direct investment, and economic freedom for selected 28 Asian countries in a panel framework. The model includes foreign aid, foreign direct investment, economic freedom, labor force, and capital stock. The estimation procedure was carried out on pooled annual time series data for the period 1998-2007. For the purpose of analysis, we used static and dynamic panel data techniques. The results indicated that an increase in the fiscal freedom, financial freedom and domestic capital stock were significant factors positively affecting economic growth. Freedom from corruption, inflow of foreign direct investment and foreign aid were significant factors negatively affecting economic growth. Further, we found that life expectancy played a significant and positive role in economic growth. Foreign aid had a non-linear impact (negative impact of high aid flows) upon economic growth.

Renewable and nonrenewable energy production and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: a hidden cointegration analysis

The objective of this article is to investigate the hypothesis of asymmetric effects between economic growth and renewable and nonrenewable energy production. To this end, both the linear cointegration and the hidden cointegration methodology are employed, with the latter allowing a straightforward delimitation of the data in an economically sensible way. We test for the presence of hidden cointegration across 12 sub-Saharan African countries spanning the period 1971–2011. The empirical results confirm the growth hypothesis for a subset of countries, suggesting that their growth could be adversely affected by conservation policies, while for a second subgroup of countries they confirm the conservation hypothesis, indicating that conservation policies could enhance the growth process in these countries. The differentiation of the results could be captured entirely by the linear approach, indicating that the lack of cointegration between renewable energy production and economic growth found in previous studies may be due to failures to properly delimit the nonlinearity property in the data.

Unemployment hysteresis in the Eurozone area: evidences from nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test

Our article tests for hysteresis of unemployment rate for 17 Eurozone countries over the period 2000:1 to 2013:1 through the use of new nonlinear panel unit root tests by adopting the sequential panel selection method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) and a nonlinear panel unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009). The results show that the unemployment rates for 17 Eurozone countries are not stationary and conform to the hysteresis hypothesis for both panel unit root tests of Ucar and Omay (2009) and SPSM without Fourier. We reported the results of the Panel Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (KSS) test with a Fourier function and found that the unemployment rates in 11 countries are stationary and this result is in accord with natural rate hypothesis. On the other hand, unemployment rates in six countries, namely Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia, Italy, Portugal and Cyprus, show hysteresis effect.

Does CPI Granger-cause WPI? New extensions from frequency domain approach in Pakistan

The present study significantly contributes to the economic literature by investigating the direction of causality between WPI and CPI by applying frequency domain causality approach developed by Lemmens et al. (2008) based on spectral approach. We use monthly frequency data covering the period of 1961-2010 in case of Pakistan. Our results provide evidence of cointegration between the variables. Furthermore, we find unidirectional causal relationship running from CPI to WPI that varies across frequencies i.e., CPI Granger-causes WPI at lower, medium as well as higher level of frequencies reflecting long-run, medium and short-run cycles. This implies that CPI should be a leading indicator for important policy decisions pertaining to monetary or fiscal policies in Pakistan.

Contagion and Dynamic Correlation of the Main European Stock Index Futures Markets: A Time-frequency Approach☆

In this paper, we examine the financial contagion and dynamic correlation between three European stock index futures, namely FTSE 100, DAX 30 and CAC 40. For this purpose we resort to a continuous wavelet transform framework and we cover the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis period. More precisely, we analyze the power spectrum of the series, the wavelet coherency and the average dynamic correlation before and after turbulence episodes occurred after the outburst of the sovereign debt crisis. Our results show that the stock index futures are highly correlated and this correlation increases around financial distress episodes. The contagion phenomenon, associated with a high-frequency correlation, manifested especially after the additional rescue package awarded to Greece. All in all, the dynamic correlation is influenced by the frequency decomposition level and fluctuates considerably in the very long-run.