Ayako Kondo

Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States

We examine effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent employment and earnings for Japanese and American men, using comparable household labor force surveys. We find persistent negative effects of the unemployment rate at graduation for less-educated Japanese men, in contrast to temporary effects for less-educated American men. The school-based hiring system and the dismissal regulation prolong the initial loss of employment opportunities for less-educated Japanese men. The effect on earnings for more-educated groups is also stronger in Japan, although the difference between the two countries is smaller than for less-educated groups.

Differential Effects of Graduating during a Recession across Race and Gender

This paper examines the differential effects of the unemployment rate at entry to the labor market, defined as completion of education, on subsequent wages across race and gender. Economic theories about search frictions, human capital accumulation and the internal labor markets all predict less persistence for low skilled or disadvantaged workers and weaker effects on those with weak attachment to the labor force. Consistent with these predictions, I find that the effect fades faster for blacks, although the initial impact of a recession at entry is stronger for them. I also find weaker effects for women.

In Search of a Better Life: The Occupational Attainment of Rural and Urban Migrants in China

This paper investigates the occupational attainment and job mobility of permanent rural-to-urban migrants and compares them with migrants who were born with an urban hukou. Using data from the 2003 China General Social Survey, we examine how much of the gaps in occupational-prestige scores between rural- and urban-born migrants can be explained by differences in observable characteristics up to the time of migration. We find that, with controls for these characteristics, the difference in occupational attainment between rural and urban migrants becomes statistically insignificant or even positive for some subgroups. In contrast, our analysis of job mobility reveals that rural migrants are generally more mobile and also more likely to move to better jobs by changing work units, whereas urban migrants are more likely to be promoted within a work unit.

Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Growth within the US States

This paper exploits differences in the stringency of balanced budget rules across US states to estimate the effect of the cyclicality of fiscal policy on state GDP growth. While most states have passed laws restricting deficits, the nature and strictness of these laws vary greatly. States with more stringent balanced budget restrictions run more procyclical fiscal policy. We use the diversity in these laws as an instrument for the cyclicality of policy. We find evidence that a more counter-cyclical primary deficit increases a states average growth rate per capita. This effect is robust to a number of alternative specifications. One concrete policy implication of this analysis is that a state could increase its annual growth rate by relaxing its balanced budget restrictions.

Availability of Long-term Care Facilities and Middle-aged People's Labor Supply in Japan

This paper estimates the effect of the availability of long‐term care facilities in the prefecture or medical district where middle‐aged men and women reside on their labor supply. Prefecture‐ and medical district‐ level panel datasets of the capacity of long‐term care facilities are merged with individual level employment data, and each individuals employment status is regressed on the capacities of long‐term care facilities. I find no evidence for a positive impact of the long‐term care availability on labor supply, although the estimates are unstable in sign and not estimated precisely enough to draw any strong conclusions.

In search of a better life

This article investigates the occupational attainment and job mobility of permanent rural-to-urban migrants and compares them with migrants who were born with an urban hukou. We examine how much of the gap in occupational-prestige scores between rural-to-urban and urban-to-urban migrants can be explained by differences in observable characteristics up to the time of migration. With controls for these characteristics, the difference in occupational attainment between rural and urban migrants becomes statistically insignificant or even positive for some subgroups. In contrast, job mobility analysis reveals that rural migrants are generally more mobile and also more likely to move to better jobs by changing work units, whereas urban migrants are more likely to be promoted within a work unit.

The Effectiveness of Demand-side Government Intervention to Promote Elderly Employment: Evidence from Japan

Since the pension eligibility age started to rise in 2001, there had been a gap between the eligibility age for full pension benefits and the prevailing retirement age in Japan. To fill the gap, the government of Japan revised the Elderly Employment Stabilization Law (EESL): starting from 2006, employers are legally obliged to introduce a system to continue employment up to the pension eligibility age. This paper examines the effect of this legal enforcement on elderly meni¯s labor supply and employment status, by comparing the affected cohorts and cohorts a few years older than them. We find that the EESL revision actually increases the employment rate of men in the affected cohorts in their early 60s, and the effect is larger for employees of the large firms. Also, the increase in elderly workers who stay in the same employer does not replace elderly workers who switch employers, suggesting that the revised EESL does not hinder elderly workeri¯s mobility.In this article, the authors examine the effect of a demand-side government intervention on employment of the elderly. The growing gap between the increasing pension eligibility age and the mandatory retirement age has emerged as a serious social concern in Japan. Starting in 2006, the government legally mandated employers to offer continuous employment up to the increased pension eligibility age. By comparing cohorts affected and unaffected by the policy, the authors find that such legal enforcement increases the employment rate of men in their early 60s. Furthermore, the effect is concentrated on employees at large-sized firms, where mandatory retirement was applied more strictly in the past. The authors then examine potential complementarity between pension reform—the conventional supply-side intervention—and the demand-side intervention. Evidence suggests that the impact of an increase in pension eligibility age on elderly employment is slightly larger when combined with legal demand-side enforcement.

Researchers' career transitions over the life cycle

Based on a unique time-use survey of academic researchers in Japan, this study finds that research time decreases over the life cycle. The decrease in total hours worked and the increase in time spent on administrative tasks explain the decrease in research time. We also show that the decrease of research time partly explains why the research output of older researchers’ decreases. The results suggest that proper incentives and job designs for senior researchers may increase their research output.