Aydogan Alti

When Do High Stock Returns Trigger Equity Issues

One of the most prominent stylized facts in corporate finance is that equity issues tend to follow periods of high stock returns. We document that firms exhibit such timing behavior only in response to high returns that coincide with strong institutional investor demand. When not accompanied by institutional purchases, stock price increases have little impact on the likelihood of equity issuance. The results highlight the importance of market reception for the timing of equity issues.

A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability

We present a dynamic model that links characteristic-based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy-wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of systematic risk for portfolios of firms sorted on value, profitability, and asset growth. If investors are overconfident about their ability to evaluate the disruption climate, these characteristic-sorted portfolios exhibit persistent mispricing. The model generates predictions about the conditional predictability of characteristic-sorted portfolio returns and illustrates how return persistence increases the likelihood of observing characteristic-based anomalies.

Information Spillovers and House Prices

We present direct evidence of information spillovers through transactions prices in real estate markets. This behavior is not explained by common shocks to housing values. The effect is strongest in homogenous markets, where the information content of price is higher. The effect is weakest among sellers expecting a nominal loss from selling, suggesting that behavioral factors may limit price-mediated information flow. Information spillovers improve liquidity, reducing time on market as much as 20%.