Azeem Majeed

Risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes prescribed oral antidiabetes drugs: retrospective cohort study using UK general practice research database

Objective To investigate the risk of incident myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and all cause mortality associated with prescription of oral antidiabetes drugs. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting UK general practice research database, 1990-2005. Participants 91 521 people with diabetes. Main outcome measures Incident myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and all cause mortality. Person time intervals for drug treatment were categorised by drug class, excluding non-drug intervals and intervals for insulin. Results 3588 incident cases of myocardial infarction, 6900 of congestive heart failure, and 18 548 deaths occurred. Compared with metformin, monotherapy with first or second generation sulphonylureas was associated with a significant 24% to 61% excess risk for all cause mortality (P<0.001) and second generation sulphonylureas with an 18% to 30% excess risk for congestive heart failure (P=0.01 and P<0.001). The thiazolidinediones were not associated with risk of myocardial infarction; pioglitazone was associated with a significant 31% to 39% lower risk of all cause mortality (P=0.02 to P<0.001) compared with metformin. Among the thiazolidinediones, rosiglitazone was associated with a 34% to 41% higher risk of all cause mortality (P=0.14 to P=0.01) compared with pioglitazone. A large number of potential confounders were accounted for in the study; however, the possibility of residual confounding or confounding by indication (differences in prognostic factors between drug groups) cannot be excluded. Conclusions Our findings suggest a relatively unfavourable risk profile of sulphonylureas compared with metformin for all outcomes examined. Pioglitazone was associated with reduced all cause mortality compared with metformin. Pioglitazone also had a favourable risk profile compared with rosiglitazone; although this requires replication in other studies, it may have implications for prescribing within this class of drugs.

The impact of eHealth on the quality and safety of health care: a systematic overview.

Aziz Sheikh and colleagues report the findings of their systematic overview that assessed the impact of eHealth solutions on the quality and safety of health care.

The Epidemiology of the Comorbidity of Epilepsy in the General Population

Summary:  Purpose: To describe the epidemiology of somatic and psychiatric conditions in adults with epilepsy in the community and compare it to that of people without epilepsy.

Use of administrative data or clinical databases as predictors of risk of death in hospital: comparison of models

Objective To compare risk prediction models for death in hospital based on an administrative database with published results based on data derived from three national clinical databases: the national cardiac surgical database, the national vascular database and the colorectal cancer study. Design Analysis of inpatient hospital episode statistics. Predictive model developed using multiple logistic regression. Setting NHS hospital trusts in England. Patients All patients admitted to an NHS hospital within England for isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm, and colorectal excision for cancer from 1996-7 to 2003-4. Main outcome measures Deaths in hospital. Performance of models assessed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve scores measuring discrimination (<0.7=poor, 0.7-0.8=reasonable, >0.8=good) and both Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics and standardised residuals measuring goodness of fit. Results During the study period 152 523 cases of isolated CABG with 3247 deaths in hospital (2.1%), 12 781 repairs of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (5987 deaths, 46.8%), 31 705 repairs of unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (3246 deaths, 10.2%), and 144 370 colorectal resections for cancer (10 424 deaths, 7.2%) were recorded. The power of the complex predictive model was comparable with that of models based on clinical datasets with ROC curve scores of 0.77 (v 0.78 from clinical database) for isolated CABG, 0.66 (v 0.65) and 0.74 (v 0.70) for repairs of ruptured and unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, respectively, and 0.80 (v 0.78) for colorectal excision for cancer. Calibration plots generally showed good agreement between observed and predicted mortality. Conclusions Routinely collected administrative data can be used to predict risk with similar discrimination to clinical databases. The creative use of such data to adjust for case mix would be useful for monitoring healthcare performance and could usefully complement clinical databases. Further work on other procedures and diagnoses could result in a suite of models for performance adjusted for case mix for a range of specialties and procedures.

Recent trends in admissions and mortality due to peptic ulcer in England: increasing frequency of haemorrhage among older subjects

Background: Although overall admission rates for peptic ulcer in England declined from the 1950s up until the mid 1980s, perforations among older women increased, possibly due to increasing use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID). Since then, proton pump inhibitors, antibiotic treatment for Helicobacter pylori, low dose aspirin, and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) have been introduced Aims: To determine time trends for hospital admissions for peptic ulcer from 1989 to 1999 (England), mortality from 1958 to 1998 (England and Wales), and prescriptions for ulcer healing drugs, aspirin, NSAID, oral anticoagulants, and SSRI from 1990 to 1999 (England). Methods: Hospital episode statistics for admissions and mortality were obtained from the Office of National Statistics: community prescription data from Statistics Division 1E of the Department of Health. Results: Between 1989/90 and 1998/99, there was a marked rise in admissions for haemorrhage in older patients, particularly from duodenal ulcer. Perforations from gastric ulcer declined but perforations from duodenal ulcer increased among men at older ages. Since the mid 1980s mortality has declined in all age groups except for older women with duodenal ulcer. The number of prescriptions for histamine H2 receptor antagonists remained constant but those for proton pump inhibitors increased by 5000%, aspirin 75mg by 460%, oral anticoagulants by 200%, and NSAID by 13% between 1990 and 1999. Since the introduction of SSRI in 1991, prescriptions have increased 15-fold. Conclusions: Admission rates for gastric and duodenal ulcer haemorrhage and duodenal ulcer, but not gastric ulcer perforation, increased among older subjects, over a time when prescriptions for proton pump inhibitors, low dose aspirin, oral anticoagulants, and SSRI increased.

Trends in the prevalence and management of atrial fibrillation in general practice in England and Wales, 1994–1998: analysis of data from the general practice research database

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of atrial fibrillation in England and Wales, and examine trends in its treatment with warfarin and aspirin between 1994 and 1998. DESIGN Analysis of data from the general practice research database. SETTING England and Wales. PATIENTS 1.4 million patients registered with 211 general practices. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age and sex specific prevalence rates of atrial fibrillation; percentage of patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants or aspirin. RESULTS The prevalence of atrial fibrillation in 1998 was 12.1/1000 in men and 12.7/1000 in women. Prevalence increased from less than 1/1000 in under 35 year olds to over 100/1000 in those aged 85 years and over. There was a 22% increase in the age standardised prevalence of atrial fibrillation in men and a 14% increase in women between 1994 and 1998. The percentage of patients prescribed oral anticoagulants increased from 20% to 34% in men and from 17% to 25% in women. The percentage of men with atrial fibrillation prescribed aspirin increased from 26% to 36%, and the percentage of women increased from 24% to 36%. Applying the age and sex specific prevalence and treatment rates to the population gives an estimate of around 650 000 cases of atrial fibrillation in England and Wales. The greatest number of cases occurs in the 75–84 year old age group. CONCLUSIONS The number of patients in the community with identified atrial fibrillation is increasing. There has also been a pronounced increase in the percentage of patients with atrial fibrillation prescribed oral anticoagulants or aspirin.

Technologies for global health

Institute for Global Health Innovation (L Conteh PhD, Prof A Darzi FRCS, P Howitt MA, K Kerr PhD, Prof S Matlin DSc, R Merrifi eld PhD, Prof G-Z Yang PhD), Centre for Environmental Policy (E Wilson MSc), Centre for Health Policy (D King MRCS, M Kulendran MRCS, Prof P C Smith BA), Department of Bioengineering (Prof A M J Bull PhD, Prof R A Malkin PhD, Prof M M Stevens PhD), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (M R Templeton PhD), Department of Infectious Diseases (G S Cooke PhD, N Ford PhD, S D Reid PhD), Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (S A J Gregson PhD), Department of Materials (Prof M M Stevens), Department of Medicine (A Blakemore PhD), Department of Primary Care & Public Health (Prof A Majeed MD), Department of Surgery and Cancer (H Ashrafi an MRCS, Prof C Vincent PhD), Faculty of Medicine (Prof R Atun FRCP), Global eHealth Unit (J Car PhD), Imperial College Business School (Prof R Atun FRCP, Prof J Barlow PhD), and Imperial Innovations (HA Penfold PhD), Imperial College London, London, UK Technologies for global health

Weekend mortality for emergency admissions. A large, multicentre study

Background Several studies have identified higher mortality for patients admitted as emergencies at the weekend compared with emergency admissions during the week, but most have focused on specific conditions or have had a limited sample size. Methods Using routinely collected hospital administrative data, we examined in-hospital deaths for all emergency inpatient admissions to all public acute hospitals in England for 2005/2006. Odds of death were calculated for admissions at the weekend compared to admissions during the week, adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity and diagnosis. Results Of a total of 4 317 866 emergency admissions, we found 215 054 in-hospital deaths with an overall crude mortality rate of 5.0% (5.2% for all weekend admissions and 4.9% for all weekday admissions). The overall adjusted odds of death for all emergency admissions was 10% higher (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.11) in those patients admitted at the weekend compared with patients admitted during a weekday (p<0.001). Conclusions This is the largest study published on weekend mortality and highlights an area of concern in relation to the delivery of acute services.

Effectiveness of mobile-phone short message service (SMS) reminders for ophthalmology outpatient appointments: Observational study

BackgroundNon-attendance for hospital outpatient appointments is a significant problem in many countries. It causes suboptimal use of clinical and administrative staff and financial losses, as well as longer waiting times. The use of Short Message Service (SMS) appointment reminders potentially offers a cost-effective and time-efficient strategy to decrease non-attendance and so improve the efficiency of outpatient healthcare delivery.MethodsAn SMS text message was sent to patients with scheduled appointments between April and September 2006 in a hospital ophthalmology department in London, reminding them of their appointments. This group acted as the intervention group. Controls were patients with scheduled ophthalmology appointments who did not receive an SMS or any alternative reminder.ResultsDuring the period of the study, 11.2% (50/447) of patients who received an SMS appointment reminder were non-attenders, compared to 18.1% (1720/9512) who did not receive an SMS reminder. Non-attendance rates were 38% lower in patients who received an SMS reminder than in patients who did not receive a reminder (RR of non-attendance = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.48 – 0.80).ConclusionThe use of SMS reminders for ophthalmology outpatient appointments was associated with a reduction of 38% in the likelihood of patients not attending their appointments, compared to no appointment reminder. The use of SMS reminders may also be more cost-effective than traditional appointment reminders and require less labour. These findings should be confirmed with a more rigorous study design before a wider roll-out.

Diverticular disease of the colon--on the rise: a study of hospital admissions in England between 1989/1990 and 1999/2000.

Background:  Diverticular disease emerged as a common problem in Western countries over the course of the 20th century.