Azhar Abbas

Non-structural flood risk mitigation under developing country conditions: an analysis on the determinants of willingness to pay for flood insurance in rural Pakistan

The present study aims at unraveling the acceptability and potential of flood insurance as a viable mechanism to cope the financial risk associated with flood events in rural Pakistan. Moreover, the factors influencing rural households’ willingness to pay for flood insurance are also analyzed. Currently, the country faces an increasing rate of flooding due to climate change phenomenon resulting in abnormal monsoonal cycles and the melting of Himalayan glaciers in the region. The current flood management strategy of the country mainly involves ex-post relief and rehabilitation programs along with financial transfers to the flood victims from public funds without the involvement of private insurance companies. This puts enormous pressure on the public exchequer, leading to budgetary adjustments and tax escalation. Under such a scenario, flood insurance is thought to be a viable alternative to mitigate the financial risk associated with the catastrophic events like the flood that occurred in 2010. The study utilized primary level data from five districts in Pakistan to evaluate the willingness to pay for flood insurance as well as the factors affecting that willingness by using contingent valuation methodology. The results show that the acceptability of this intervention among flood victims depends on a multitude of factors such as the age of the household head, landownership, off-farm income sources and a preconception concerning the effectiveness of flood insurance. Moreover, rural families’ readiness to pay an insurance premium is not significantly influenced by perceived risk of flooding but by their financial position.

Land use/land cover classification and its change detection using multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data

Detailed analysis of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) using remote sensing data in complex irrigated basins provides complete profile for better water resource management and planning. Using remote sensing data, this study provides detailed land use maps of the Lower Chenab Canal irrigated region of Pakistan from 2005 to 2012 for LULC change detection. Major crop types are demarcated by identifying temporal profiles of NDVI using MODIS 250 m × 250 m spatial resolution data. Wheat and rice are found to be major crops in rabi and kharif seasons, respectively. Accuracy assessment of prepared maps is performed using three different techniques: error matrix approach, comparison with ancillary data and with previous study. Producer and user accuracies for each class are calculated along with kappa coefficients (K). The average overall accuracies for rabi and kharif are 82.83% and 78.21%, respectively. Producer and user accuracies for individual class range respectively between 72.5% to 77% and 70.1% to 84.3% for rabi and 76.6% to 90.2% and 72% to 84.7% for kharif. The K values range between 0.66 to 0.77 for rabi with average of 0.73, and from 0.69 to 0.74 with average of 0.71 for kharif. LULC change detection indicates that wheat and rice have less volatility of change in comparison with both rabi and kharif fodders. Transformation between cotton and rice is less common due to their completely different cropping conditions. Results of spatial and temporal LULC distributions and their seasonal variations provide useful insights for establishing realistic LULC scenarios for hydrological studies.

Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan

ABSTRACT Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated the impacts of the deviation in our study years (2012) temperature and precipitation patterns from medium-term (1980–2011) climatic patterns on farmland values in Pakistan. This was accomplished by employing a modified form of a Ricardian regression model. We also examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change during this period, as well as their perceptions of climate change impacts on farm productivity, in addition to past and anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that positive temperature deviation from the medium-term mean – indicative of climatic change – affects farmland values in Pakistan. Deviation in annual cumulative precipitation conversely appears to have no significant impact. Estimates of the marginal impact of temperature deviation suggested a slight but negative linear relationship with farmland values. The location of farms in areas where farmers can avail financial or extension services conversely had a positive impact on farmland values, as did the availability of irrigation facilities. Our analysis of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their consequent adaptation behavior indicated a relatively high degree of awareness of climatic variability that influenced a number of proactive and future anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Examples included increased use of irrigation and farm enterprise diversification, as well as land-use change, including shifting from agriculture into alternative land uses. National policy in Pakistan underscores the importance of maintaining a productive rural agricultural sector. Our findings consequently highlight the importance of appropriate adaptation strategies to maintain both farm productivity and farmland values in much of Pakistan. The implications of increased extension and financial services to enhance farmers’ potential for climate change adaptation are discussed.

How hard they hit? Perception, adaptation and public health implications of heat waves in urban and peri-urban Pakistan

Heat waves threaten human health given the fast changing climatic scenarios in the recent past. Adaptation to heat waves would take place when people perceive their impacts based on their knowledge. The present study examines perception level and its determinants resulting in adaptation to heat waves in Pakistan. The study used cross-sectional data from urban and peri-urban respondents of Faisalabad District. The study employs a health belief model to assess risk perception among the respondents. Logistic model is used to determine factors affecting level of knowledge, perception and adaptation to heat waves. Around 30% of peri-urban respondents have a low level of knowledge about the fatal impacts of heat waves. Risk perception of heat waves is very low among urban (57%) and peri-urban (66%) respondents. Households’ knowledge on heat waves is significantly related to age, gender, education, wealth and access to health services. Determinants of perception include knowledge of heat waves, age and joint effect of marital status and knowledge while income level, family size, urban/peri-urban background, perceived barriers, perceived benefits and cues to action significantly affect adaptation to heat waves. To reduce deadly health impacts, mass awareness campaigns are needed to build perception and improve adaptation to heat waves.

An overview of flood mitigation strategy and research support in South Asia: implications for sustainable flood risk management

South Asia faces increasing flooding risks due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Various measures have been adopted by the governments of the countries in this region. However, these measures are not adequate to protect the vulnerable communities from ever-increasing flood losses. This study assesses the policy and planning processes and flood-related scientific research in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Based on a systematic review, a comparison of the existing flood management systems of the three countries is undertaken, and a framework for sustainable flood management in the region is suggested. Insights from the literature show that Bangladesh has been able to develop an effective governance structure to address flood hazards, while Pakistan’s approach to flood management planning is found to be largely inadequate. This inadequacy is mainly attributed to missing links in policy formulation and planning processes, along with a lack of institutional coordination. The results of the literature analysis reveal poor support from scientific research focusing on flooding issues in the case of Pakistan, while Bangladesh and India seem to have benefited from research support in formulating their flood management strategies. Based on these findings, an alternative framework is suggested, emphasizing the need to enhance institutional linkages, community participation and evidence-based research.

Effect of biochar-amended urea on nitrogen economy of soil for improving the growth and yield of wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) under field condition

ABSTRACT A field experiment was conducted to evaluate effect of biochar-amended urea on nitrogen economy of soil for improving the growth and yield of wheat under field condition. Experiment plan was comprised of twelve treatments with four replications including treatments without application of urea and biochar (control) and urea only. Biochar was applied at 1–10% of the weight of urea fertilizer applied each treatment. Results showed that application of biochar at 10% with recommended dose of urea significantly improved plant height, spike length, number of tillers, number of spikelet per spike, 1000 grain weight, grain yields, biomass yield, harvesting index, nitrogen (N) concentration and uptake in grain and straw, and agronomic efficiency of nitrogen by 6.0%, 11.1%, 32.0%, 55.3%, 5.4%, 38.0%, 19.0%, 9.0%, 19.0%, 26.0%, 65.0%, 50.0%, and 63.0%, respectively, as compared to treatment comprised of recommended rate of nitrogen without biochar.

Analysing Vulnerability to Climate Change in India with Special Reference to Drought Risk: Results from a Field Survey

India faces considerable threat from changing climatic conditions locally and globally. Drought risk is one such threat which is projected to increase in frequency and intensity under such changing conditions. Many households are expected to suffer from these changes and associated risks such as drought. These risks may expose many vulnerable households in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation measures. This study analyses climate change and drought risk vulnerability of marginal households exposed to such hazards. For this purpose, a field survey of 220 households in Balangir district of Odisha state in India was carried out using multistage random sampling technique. Using Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) and other indicators of vulnerability to socioeconomic domains defined by IPCC, the current level of household’s exposure and coping capacity is evaluated. Results indicate that vulnerability is a function of both climatic and non-climatic factors. The socio demographic characters like low literacy rates, resource availability and accessibility, social structure, etc., make people more vulnerable whereas access to social networks plays a significant role in uplifting the poor rural households. The research concludes that the impacts of climate change and drought risk expose those households disproportionately who are already vulnerable due to poverty, inequality and marginalisation. Moreover, a need to formulate policies based on regional and local estimates of vulnerability and coping capacity is emphasised for an effective mitigation to climate change and drought risk.

Knowledge, Perception and Socioeconomic Vulnerability of Urban and Peri-urban Households to Heat Waves in Pakistan

Heat waves cause a large number of morbidity and mortality cases each year in Pakistan. Although the institutions cannot overcome heat waves, its intensity in the forms of morbidity and mortality can be minimized by taking precautionary measures. We examine knowledge and perception of population regarding heat waves in Faisalabad. Results show that 53 % respondents in peri-urban areas are involved in open field jobs and such respondents are more vulnerable to heat waves in the absence of no precautionary measures. Further, long working hours increase misery of such individuals. Access to health services is poor, since visits made by health workers to households are very few per year. Unfortunately, 20–30 % individuals having knowledge on heat waves do not follow instructions to avoid adverse effects of heat waves. Strengthening the role of print and electronic media, social networks, and health institutions can save many lives in the heat prone areas in Pakistan.

Inverse Parametrization of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with the Aid of Modelling and GIS: Test and Application of Different Approaches

The use of inverse methods allow efficient model calibration. This study employs PEST to calibrate a large catchment scale transient flow model. Results are demonstrated by comparing manually calibrated approaches with the automated approach. An advanced Tikhonov regularization algorithm was employed for carrying out the automated pilot point (PP) method. The results indicate that automated PP is more flexible and robust as compared to other approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration as values of coefficient of determination (R2) range from 0.98 to 0.99, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ME) range from 0.964 to 0.976, and root mean square errors (RMSE) range from 1.68 m to 1.23 m, for manual and automated approaches, respectively. Validation results of automated PP show ME as 0.969 and RMSE as 1.31 m. The results of output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to perform global sensitivity and linear uncertainty analysis for the better estimation of the modelling results.

Potential of Livestock TAKAFUL in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation

Livestock sector in Pakistan is among top countries in the production of animal and dairy product. The country has witnessed an increasing trend in milk production during the last 5 years particularly in Punjab province. There are numerous risks associated with livestock which threaten the viability of this important sector. Most important of these risks and uncertainties are natural disasters including flood, heavy rainfall, and earthquake etc. All these risks play important role in the productivity of livestock sector. Livestock insurance is one of the options to mitigate the potential impacts of such natural calamities. This study is designed to investigate the demand for livestock insurance in Punjab province of Pakistan. Three Tehsils from central Punjab namely Lahore, Kasur and Raiwind, were selected as universe of the study. A total of 250 dairy farmers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire during January to March 2015. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were used to assess the potential demand for livestock TAKAFUL (Islamic Insurance) in the study area. The results point to the significance of number of animals, ratio of farm income to household income, desire to increase herd strength and livestock farm quality in respondents’ willingness to pay for livestock TAKAFUL. The findings urged provision of Shariah compliant product for farmers and training in livestock management.