B. Bhaskara Rao

Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist

Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long run relationships with the time series methods. This paper reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific (GETS), vector autoregressions (VAR) and the vector error correction models (VECM). As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000), often there may be only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long-run relationships with the time series methods. This article reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific, vector autoregressions and the vector error correction models. As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000), often there maybe only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.

Do fiscal deficits influence current accounts? A case study of India

This paper examines the effects of fiscal deficits on the current account deficits in the Indian economy. In many developing countries, fiscal deficits are mostly financed through monetization, causing crowding out of private investment expenditures. However, fiscal deficits in India are mostly financed through official borrowings from various external sources, leading to higher interest payments and outgoings on the external account. Such a policy could eventually precipitate balance of payments crises despite favorable trade account and real exchange rate. Data over three decades for the Indian economy show that, in addition to the real exchange rate and the ratio of private investment to GDP, fiscal deficits significantly contribute to the current account deficits.

Growth effects of a comprehensive measure of globalization with country-specific time series data

Many studies have estimated the growth effects of globalization where globalization was measured with a few economic variables, ignoring its social and political dimensions. Recently, Dreher (2006) has developed a comprehensive measure of globalization with several variables from the economic, political and social sectors. He showed, with the panel data methods, that globalization has positive growth effect implying that countries with higher globalization grow faster. We argue that 5-year average growth rates, used in many panel data studies, are inadequate proxies for the unobservable Steady State Growth Rate (SSGR). Using the Dreher indices, we extend the Solow (1956) model to derive country-specific estimates of SSGRs for Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, India and the Philippines. Our results show that countries with higher levels of globalization have higher SSGRs but the growth effects on SSGRs are smaller than in many studies.

Time-series econometrics of growth-models: a guide for applied economists

This article examines the use of specifications based on the endogenous and exogenous growth-models for country-specific growth policies. It is suggested that time-series models based on the Solow (1956) exogenous growth-model are useful and they can also be extended to capture the permanent growth-effects of some variables. Our empirical results, with data from Fiji, show that trade openness and human capital have significant and permanent growth-effects. However, these growth-effects are small and eventually converge over time.

Demand for money in India: 1953-2003

The demand for money, especially in the developing countries, is an important relationship for formulating appropriate monetary policy and targeting monetary variables. In this paper the demand for narrow money in India is estimated and its robustness evaluated. It is found that there is a stable demand for money for almost half a century from 1953 to 2003. There is no evidence for any significant effects of the 1991 financial reforms.The demand for money, especially in the developing countries, is an important relationship for formulating appropriate monetary policy and targeting monetary variables. In this paper we estimate the demand for narrow money in India and evaluate its robustness. It is found that there is a stable demand for money for almost half a century from 1953 to 2003. There is no evidence for any significant effects of the

Are US gasoline price adjustments asymmetric

1991

Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks

financial reforms.

Demand for money for Fiji with PcGets

We use the LSE-Hendry general to specific approach to analyse if US gasoline price adjustments are asymmetric with respect to changes in crude oil prices. Furthermore, we modify some weaknesses in the earlier works by Borenstein et al. (1997) and Bachmeier and Griffin (2003) and shows that if the price adjustment equations are properly specified and estimated, alternative specifications and temporal aggregation of data do not affect the results. Monthly US data are used to show that alternative specifications give equally good results and there is no asymmetry in the US gasoline price adjustments.

Is the US Demand for Money Unstable

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for which consistent quarterly data are available. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results for the post-reform sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.

A Time-Series Approach to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries

Methodological controversies on the relative merits of estimating time-series models with alternative approaches exist. However, applied researchers may eventually opt for an easy to use and computationally less demanding approach. This article shows that the LSE/Hendry approach, known as GETS, is promising when it is implemented with PcGets. To illustrate we report the GETS and the Johansen co-integration-based ECM equations, with PcGets, of the demand for money for Fiji.