B. De Stavola

Review of survival analyses published in cancer journals.

Survival analysis has found widespread applications in medicine in the last 10-15 years. However, there has been no published review of the use and presentation of survival analyses. We have carried out a systematic review of the research papers published between October and December 1991 in five clinical oncology journals. A total of 132 papers were reviewed. We looked at several aspects of study design, data handling, analysis and presentation of the results. We found that almost half of the papers did not give any summary of length of follow-up; that in 62% of papers at least one end point was not clearly defined; and that both logrank and multivariate analyses were frequently reported at most only as P-values [63/84 (75%) and 22/47 (47%) respectively]. Furthermore, although many studies were small, uncertainty of the estimates was rarely indicated [in 13/84 (15%) logrank and 16/47 (34%) multivariate results]. The procedure for categorisation of continuous variables in logrank analyses was explained in only 8/49 (16%) papers. The quality of graphs was felt to be poor in 43/117 (37%) papers which included at least one survival curve. To address some of the presentational inadequacies found in this review we include new suggested guidelines for the presentation of survival analyses in medical journals. These would complement the statistical guidelines recommended by several clinical oncology journals.

Risks of breast and testicular cancers in young adult twins in England and Wales: evidence on prenatal and genetic aetiology

BACKGROUND Aetiology of breast and testicular cancers may have prenatal factors, possibly exposure of the fetus to high concentrations of maternal oestrogen. Dizygotic twinning probably involves high hormone concentrations, and therefore, dizygotic twins might be at raised risk of these cancers. The aetiologies of breast and testicular cancers have genetic components, for breast cancer, especially at younger ages. Twins of these probands may, therefore, be at high risk. We investigated risk in twins of patients with breast cancer at young ages or with testicular cancer. METHODS We identified twins with breast cancer incident at ages younger than 45 years and with incident testicular cancer in England and Wales during 1971-89 by cross-matching national cancer-registration and births records. We determined zygosity by questionnaires to the patients. The twins of probands were followed up for cancer incidence and death. We analysed risks of breast and testicular cancer in dizygotic twins compared with monozygotic twins, and in monozygotic and dizygotic twins of probands. FINDINGS We identified 500 twins with breast cancer and 194 with testicular cancer. We found a non-significantly raised risk of breast cancer in dizygotic compared with monozygotic twins younger than 30 years (odds ratio 2.3 [95% CI 0.9-5.9]) but not older. The overall risk of testicular cancer was significantly higher in dizygotic twins than in monozygotic twins (1.5 [1.1-2.2]) consequent on a risk for seminomas was high (3.2 [1.6-6.5]; p = 0.001). Risk of breast cancer was significantly raised in female twins of probands (standardised incidence ratio 7.7 [4.9-12.2], p < 0.001). The relative risk of breast cancer was 34.7 (9.5-126.5) in monozygotic twins of women in whom breast cancer had occurred before age 35 years. The cumulative risk of breast cancer for these twins by age 40 years was 29% (13-56). The relative risk of testicular cancer was 37.5 (12.3-115.6) in twins of men with testicular cancer. The cumulative risk by age 40 years in monozygotic twins of men with testicular cancer was 14% (4-46). INTERPRETATION The higher risks of these cancers in dizygotic than in monozygotic twins support a prenatal aetiology, and are compatible with aetiology related to raised maternal concentrations of free, unbound oestrogens. The results for twins of probands have implications for genetic aetiology; appropriate clinical action for monozygotic twins needs consideration.

Do urinary oestrogen metabolites predict breast cancer? Guernsey III cohort follow-up

This is the first prospective study of urinary measures of the two major competing pathways of oestrogen metabolism, 16alpha-hydroxyoestrone (16alpha-OHE1) and 2-hydroxyoestrone (2-OHE1), in relation to incident breast cancer risk. Experimental and case-control study results suggest that metabolism favouring the more oestrogenic 16alpha-OHE1 pathway may be linked to higher breast cancer risk. Women aged 35 and older from Guernsey (n = 5104) were surveyed in 1977-85 and have been continuously monitored for breast cancer and mortality up to the present (Guernsey III, Imperial Cancer Research Fund). Incident cases of breast cancer were matched to three control subjects for comparison of urinary oestrogen metabolite levels measured by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in spot urine samples collected at baseline and stored frozen for up to 19 years. Consistent with case-control study results, post-menopausal (but not premenopausal) women at baseline who went on to develop breast cancer showed about a 15% lower 2:16alpha-OHE1 ratio than matched control subjects. Further, subjects with metabolite ratios in the highest tertile of 2:16alpha-OHE1 had about a 30% lower risk than women with ratios in the lowest two-thirds, although results were not statistically significant (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.29-1.75). It is of potential importance that, in contrast to most risk factors for breast cancer, such as late age at first birth, oestrogen metabolism appears to be modifiable via diet and exercise, offering women the possibility of lowering breast cancer risk through non-pharmacological measures, although this remains to be tested.

Fetal growth and subsequent risk of breast cancer: results from long term follow up of Swedish cohort

Abstract Objective: To investigate whether size at birth and rate of fetal growth influence the risk of breast cancer in adulthood. Design: Cohort identified from detailed birth records, with 97% follow up. Setting: Uppsala Academic Hospital, Sweden. Participants: 5358 singleton females born during 1915-29, alive and traced to the 1960 census. Main outcome measures: Incidence of breast cancer before (at age <50 years) and after (≥ 50 years) the menopause. Results: Size at birth was positively associated with rates of breast cancer in premenopausal women. In women who weighed ≥4000 g at birth rates of breast cancer were 3.5 times (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 9.3) those in women of similar gestational age who weighed <3000 g at birth. Rates in women in the top fifths of the distributions of birth length and head circumference were 3.4 (1.5 to 7.9) and 4.0 (1.6 to 10.0) times those in the lowest fifths (adjusted for gestational age). The effect of birth weight disappeared after adjustment for birth length or head circumference, whereas the effects of birth length and head circumference remained significant after adjustment for birth weight. For a given size at birth, gestational age was inversely associated with risk (P=0.03 for linear trend). Adjustment for markers of adult risk factors did not affect these findings. Birth size was not associated with rates of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. Conclusions: Size at birth, particularly length and head circumference, is associated with risk of breast cancer in women aged <50 years. Fetal growth rate, as measured by birth size adjusted for gestational age, rather than size at birth may be the aetiologically relevant factor in premenopausal breast cancer. What is already known on this topic There is some evidence that birth weight is related to risk of breast cancer The exact nature of any association and whether it differs at premenopausal and postmenopausal ages is unclear Few studies have examined the effect of other measures of birth size and of gestational age What this study adds There are strong positive associations between measures of birth size and rates of breast cancer at premenopausal ages that persisted after adjustment for adult risk factors For a given birth size, gestational age was inversely associated with risk, suggesting that the rate of fetal growth may be aetiologically relevant to premenopausal breast cancer There was no association between birth characteristics and rates of breast cancer at postmenopausal ages

Birthweight, childhood growth and risk of breast cancer in a British cohort

We have examined the relationship between birthweight and risk of breast cancer, taking into account growth in childhood, using data on a total of 2221 women born in 1946 and followed up to 1997. Thirty-seven breast cancers occurred during follow-up. There was evidence of greater risk of breast cancer with greater birthweight (rate ratio = 1.76 (95% CI: 0.92, 3.35) for birthweight ≥ 3.5 kg vs birthweight < 3.5 kg), which was more marked at pre-menopausal ages (RR = 2.31, 95% CI: 0.93, 5.74). The relation with birthweight was not substantially confounded by any of the measured adult risk factors. A significant interaction was observed between the effects of birthweight and height at age 7 years. Relative to those born lighter than 3.5 kg, women who were heavy at birth (≥ 3.5 kg) and short or average at 7 years (< 1.22 m) had a 21% increase in breast cancer rates (RR = 1.21; 95% CI = 0.49–2.99), while women who were heavy at birth (≥ 3.5 kg) but tall at 7 years (≥ 1.22 m) had a four-fold increase (RR = 4.01; 95% CI = 1.82–8.83). These results suggest that the effect of birthweight on breast cancer risk may be modulated by childhood growth.

Methods for dealing with time-dependent confounding.

Longitudinal studies, where data are repeatedly collected on subjects over a period, are common in medical research. When estimating the effect of a time-varying treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest measured at a later time, standard methods fail to give consistent estimators in the presence of time-varying confounders if those confounders are themselves affected by the treatment. Robins and colleagues have proposed several alternative methods that, provided certain assumptions hold, avoid the problems associated with standard approaches. They include the g-computation formula, inverse probability weighted estimation of marginal structural models and g-estimation of structural nested models. In this tutorial, we give a description of each of these methods, exploring the links and differences between them and the reasons for choosing one over the others in different settings.

Multiple myeloma--a case-control study.

A total of 399 patients with multiple myeloma and an equal number of match controls were interviewed about factors possibly related to the causes of their disease. Factors studied included occupation, chemical exposure, radiation exposure, prior diseases, immunizations, chronic infections and markers for defects in immune regulation. A strong risk associated with agriculture/food processing was observed (RR = 1.8, P = 0.002). The risk could not be restricted to those exposed to animals or meat products, or those exposed to pesticides. Significant excesses were also noted for reported exposures to chemicals and gases/fumes, but no specific agent or group of agents could be identified. Cases had fewer tonsillectomies above the age of 10 (P = 0.01). A large excess of shingles (herpes zoster) was observed in cases (P less than 0.001), but most of the excess cases occurred within 10 years of diagnosis, suggesting this was a preclinical manifestation of disease rather than a cause of it.

Life-course body size and perimenopausal mammographic parenchymal patterns in the MRC 1946 British birth cohort

Dense mammographic parenchymal patterns are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Certain features of body size have been found to be associated with breast cancer risk, but less is known about their relation to breast density. We investigated the association of birth size, childhood growth and life-course changes in body size with Wolfe grade in 1298 perimenopausal women from a British cohort of women born in 1946. The cohort benefits from repeated measures of body size in childhood and adulthood. We obtained mammograms for 90% of women who at age 53 years reported having previously had a mammogram. We found no associations with birth weight or maximum attained height. Body mass index (BMI) at age 53 years and breast size were independently and inversely associated with Wolfe grade (P-value for trend <0.001 for both). Women who reached puberty later were at a greater odds of a higher Wolfe grade than women who had an earlier puberty (odds ratio associated with a 1 year delay in menarche 1.14, 95% CI: 1.01–1.27, adjusted for BMI and breast size at mammography). A higher BMI at any age during childhood or adult life was associated with a reduction in the odds of a higher Wolfe grade, after controlling for breast size and BMI at mammography, for example, standardised odds ratio for height at age 7 was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.81). These findings reveal the importance of taking life-course changes in body size, and not just contemporaneous measures, into account when using mammographic density as an intermediate marker for risk of breast cancer.

Diagnosis of Ewing's sarcoma and peripheral neuroectodermal tumour based on the detection of t(11;22) using fluorescence in situ hybridisation.

Fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used increasingly for gene mapping and ordering probes on interphase and metaphase preparations. The association of consistent chromosomal aberrations with certain malignancies allows the possibility of using interphase cytogenetics as a diagnostic tool. In small round cell tumours of children accurate diagnosis may be difficult using existing methods. We have therefore evaluated the diagnostic potential of this technique when applied to the characteristic t(11;22) found in Ewings sarcoma and peripheral neuroectodermal tumour (ES and PNET). Interphase nuclei were prepared from normal human foreskin fibroblasts (HFF), two Ewings sarcoma cell lines and several fresh tumour biopsies. DNA probes each side of the breakpoint at 22q12 were labelled with biotin and digoxygenin, hybridised to chromosomes in interphase and detected in different colours. Measurements between pairs of signals arising from each copy of chromosome 22 were taken and statistical analysis performed. There was a highly significant difference (P < 0.0001) between the two populations of measurements obtained (from nuclei with and without the t(11;22)). Studying four tumours and one further ES line (blind) it was found that median values from 30 nuclei could correctly identify which samples contained the t(11;22). This application of interphase cytogenetics contributes a reliable, accurate and conceptually simple diagnostic test for ES and PNET. It may now be applied to other tumours with characteristic translocations, amplifications or deletions when suitable probes are available. This approach is likely to become a routine in clinical diagnosis.

Risk factors for testicular cancer: a case-control study in twins

SummaryEarly life and anthropometric risk factors for testicular cancer were examined in a case-control study in England and Wales in which affected male twins were compared with their unaffected male co-twins. Questionnaire data was obtained for 60 twin pairs. Significantly raised risk of testicular cancer occurred in twins who had longer arms and legs than their co-twin. There was a significant excess of testicular cancer reported in non-twin brothers, as well as in twin brothers, of cases. Risk was also significantly raised in relation to cryptorchidism. The results on limb length suggest that factors, perhaps nutritional, affecting growth before puberty, may be causes of testicular cancer. The results on risk in brothers add to evidence of a large genetic component in aetiology of the tumour. The risk associated with cryptorchidism in the twins accords with the hypothesis that cryptorchidism is causally associated with testicular cancer because it is a cause of the malignancy, rather than because the same maternal factors experienced in utero cause both conditions.