B. K. Bansal

Investigations of continued reservoir triggered seismicity at Koyna, India

Abstract Koyna, located in the Deccan Volcanic Province in western India, is the most significant site of reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS) globally. The largest RTS event of M 6.3 occurred here on December 10, 1967. RTS at Koyna has continued. This includes 22 M≥5.0 and thousands of smaller events over the past 50 years. The annual loading and unloading cycles of the Koyna Reservoir and the nearby Warna Reservoir influence RTS. Koyna provides an excellent natural laboratory to comprehend the mechanism of RTS because earthquakes here occur in a small area, mostly at depths of 2–7 km, which are accessible for monitoring. A deep borehole laboratory is therefore planned to study earthquakes in the near-field to understand their genesis, especially in an RTS environment. Initially, several geophysical investigations were carried out to characterize the seismic zone, including 5000 line kilometres of airborne gravity gradiometry and magnetic surveys, high-quality magnetotelluric data from 100 stations, airborne LiDAR surveys over 1064 km2, drilling of 8 boreholes of approximately 1500 m depth and geophysical logging. To improve the earthquake locations a unique network of borehole seismometers was installed in six of these boreholes. These results, along with a pilot borehole drilling plan, are presented here.

Largest earthquake in Himalaya: An appraisal

The largest earthquake (Mw 8.4 to 8.6) in Himalaya reported so far occurred in Assam syntaxial bend in 1950. However, some recent studies have suggested for earthquake of magnitude Mw 9 or more in the Himalayan region. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of seismological data extending back to 1200 AD, and show that earthquake in Himalayan region may not be expected to be as large as those of subduction zones. Also, there appears to be a lateral variation in the earthquake magnitude, being lesser in the western syntaxial bend when compared close to the eastern syntaxial bend. This is attributed to the difference in the plate boundary scenario; dominance of strike-slip and thrusting along the western syntaxis as against thrusting and remnant subduction along the eastern syntaxis.

Discriminatory characteristics of seismic gaps in Himalaya

Contrary to most of the earlier theories that great earthquakes (Mw 8.5 or even larger) may occur anywhere along the Indian plate boundary assuming uniform strain accumulation, this paper proposes two types of gaps with discriminatory characteristics. The new gaps were initially identified from earthquakes of magnitude 6, whose return periods in Himalaya vary between 20 and 30 years and are well within the period of reliable instrumental data of about 100 years. These gaps were then integrated with the largest magnitude event in instrumental era and historical times; information on paleoseismicity, micro-seismicity data, GPS-based geodetic observations and the tectonic features. The regions where great/major earthquakes (Mw 8 or larger) have occurred in the past are classified as seismic gap of category 1, namely Kashmir, west Himachal Pradesh (Kangra), Uttarakhand to Dharachulla, central Nepal to Bihar, Shillong, Arunachal gap including Assam–Tibet–Myanmar syntaxis. On the other hand, the second category of seismic gap includes Jammu–Kishtwar block, east Himachal Pradesh, western Nepal (excluding Dharachulla region) and Sikkim–Bhutan where history of large earthquakes is not available. In these gaps, the largest earthquake magnitude is smaller (7–7.5) and the recurrence interval for earthquakes of same magnitude is larger as compared to category 1 gaps.

Intensity map of Mw 6.9 2011 Sikkim–Nepal border earthquake and its relationships with PGA: distance and magnitude

We compiled available information of damages and other effects caused by the September 18, 2011, Sikkim–Nepal border earthquake from the print and electronic media, and interpreted them to obtain Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) at over 142 locations. These values are used to prepare the intensity map of the Sikkim earthquake. The map reveals several interesting features. Within the meizoseismal area, the most heavily damaged villages are concentrated toward the eastern edge of the inferred fault, consistent with eastern directivity. The intensities are amplified significantly in areas located along rivers, within deltas or on coastal alluvium such as mud flats and salt pans. We have also derived empirical relation between MMI and ground motion parameters using least square regression technique and compared it with the available relationships available for other regions of the world. Further, seismic intensity information available for historical earthquakes which have occurred in NE Himalayas along with present intensity has been utilized for developing attenuation relationship for NE India using two-step regression analyses. The derived attenuation relation is useful for assessing damage of a potential future earthquake (earthquake scenario-based planning purposes) for the northeast Himalaya region.

Active fault research in India: achievements and future perspective

This paper provides a brief overview of the progress made towards active fault research in India. An 8 m high scarp running for more than 80 km in the Rann of Kachchh is the classical example of the surface deformation caused by the great earthquake (1819 Kachchh earthquake). Integration of geological/geomorphic and seismological data has led to the identification of 67 active faults of regional scale, 15 in the Himalaya, 17 in the adjoining foredeep with as many as 30 neotectonic faults in the stable Peninsular India. Large-scale trenching programmes coupled with radiometric dates have begun to constraint the recurrence period of earthquakes; of the order of 500–1000 years for great earthquakes in the Himalaya and 10,000 years for earthquakes of >M6 in the Peninsular India. The global positioning system (GPS) data in the stand alone manner have provided the fault parameters and length of rupture for the 2004 Andaman Sumatra earthquakes. Ground penetration radar (GPR) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques have enabled detection of large numbers of new active faults and their geometries. Utilization of modern technologies form the central feature of the major programme launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India to prepare geographic information system (GIS) based active fault maps for the country.

Active fault mapping: An initiative towards seismic hazard assessment in India

Identification and characterization of active faults and deciphering their seismic potential are of vital importance in seismic hazard assessment of any region. Seismic vulnerability of India is well known as more than 60 % of its area lies in high hazard zones due to the presence of major active faults in its plate boundaries and continental interiors, which produced large earthquakes in the past and have potential to generate major earthquakes in future. The safety of critical establishments, like Power plants, Refinaries and other lifeline structures is a major concern in these areas and calls for a better characterization of these faults to help mitigate the impact of future earthquakes. The paper provides a brief overview of the work carried out in India on active fault research, its limitations and immediate priorities.

Science and technology based earthquake risk reduction strategies: The Indian scenario

Science and Technology (S & T) interventions are considered to be very important in any effort related to earthquake risk reduction. Their three main components are: earthquake forecast, assessment of earthquake hazard, and education and awareness. In India, although the efforts towards earthquake forecast were initiated about two decades ago, systematic studies started recently with the launch of a National Program on Earthquake Precursors. The quantification of seismic hazard, which is imperative in the present scenario, started in India with the establishment of first seismic observatory in 1898 and since then a substantial progress has been made in this direction. A dedicated education and awareness program was initiated about 10 years ago to provide earthquake education and create awareness amongst the students and society at large. The paper highlights significant S & T efforts made in India towards reduction of risk due to future large earthquakes.

Fault rupture directivity of large earthquakes in Himalaya

The paper examines the predominant fault rupture directivity during large earthquakes in different sectors of the Himalaya which influences strong ground motion and damage scenario. The nature of the faulting of earthquakes vis-à-vis their rupture directivity has been discussed. It is found that the rupture directivity near the Indo-Eurasian plate boundary varies from place to place i.e. either along the strike direction of the faults or at right angles to it. The secondary meizoseismal areas as observed for 1505 Dharchula, 1803 Uttarakhand, 1905 Kangra earthquakes in the Himalaya and 2001 Bhuj earthquake in stable continental region suggest that they are a fairly good indicator of predominant rupture directivity since the latter accentuates the site response up to a longer distance. The resulting larger ground motions, therefore, need to be incorporated in the design of engineering structures by suitable modifications in the BIS code.

Source parameters of 1 st April 2015 Chamoli earthquake (Mw 4.8) vis-à-vis seismotectonics of the region

The paper presents a detailed analysis of 1st April 2015 earthquake, whose epicenter (30.16° N, 79.28° E) was located near Simtoli village of Chamoli district, Uttarakhand. The focal depth is refined to 7 km by the grid search technique using moment tensor inversion. The source parameters of the earthquake as estimated by spectral analysis method suggested the source radius of ~1.0 km, seismic moment as 1.99E+23 dyne-cm with moment magnitude (Mw) of 4.8 and stress drop of 69 bar. The fault plane solution inferred using full waveform inversion indicated two nodal planes, the northeast dipping plane having strike 334° and dip 5° and the southwest dipping plane with dip 86° and strike 118°. The parallelism of the nodal plane striking 334° with dip 5° as indicated in depth cross sections of the tectonic elements suggested the north dipping Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) to be the causative fault for this earthquake. Spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes during the period 1960-2015 showed seismic quiescence during 2006-2010 and migration of seismicity towards south.