B M Fekete

Anthropogenic sediment retention: major global impact from registered river impoundments

In this paper, we develop and apply a framework for estimating the potential global-scale impact of reservoir construction on riverine sediment transport to the ocean. Using this framework, we discern a large, global-scale, and growing impact from anthropogenic impoundment. Our study links information on 633 of the worlds largest reservoirs (LRs) (≥0.5 km3 maximum storage capacity) to the geography of continental discharge and uses statistical inferences to assess the potential impact of the remaining >44,000 smaller reservoirs (SRs). Information on the LRs was linked to a digitized river network at 30′ (latitude×longitude) spatial resolution. A residence time change (ΔτR) for otherwise free-flowing river water is determined locally for each reservoir and used with a sediment retention function to predict the proportion of incident sediment flux trapped within each impoundment. The discharge-weighted mean ΔτR for individual impoundments distributed across the globe is 0.21 years for LRs and 0.011 years for SRs. More than 40% of global river discharge is intercepted locally by the LRs analyzed here, and a significant proportion (≈70%) of this discharge maintains a theoretical sediment trapping efficiency in excess of 50%. Half of all discharge entering LRs shows a local sediment trapping efficiency of 80% or more. Analysis of the recent history of river impoundment reveals that between 1950 and 1968, there was tripling from 5% to 15% in global LR sediment trapping, another doubling to 30% by 1985, and stabilization thereafter. Several large basins such as the Colorado and Nile show nearly complete trapping due to large reservoir construction and flow diversion. From the standpoint of sediment retention rates, the most heavily regulated drainage basins reside in Europe. North America, Africa, and Australia/Oceania are also strongly affected by LRs. Globally, greater than 50% of basin-scale sediment flux in regulated basins is potentially trapped in artificial impoundments, with a discharge-weighted sediment trapping due to LRs of 30%, and an additional contribution of 23% from SRs. If we consider both regulated and unregulated basins, the interception of global sediment flux by all registered reservoirs (n≈45,000) is conservatively placed at 4–5 Gt year−1 or 25–30% of the total. There is an additional but unknown impact due to still smaller unregistered impoundments (n≈800,000). Our results demonstrate that river impoundment should now be considered explicitly in global elemental flux studies, such as for water, sediment, carbon, and nutrients. From a global change perspective, the long-term impact of such hydraulic engineering works on the worlds coastal zone appears to be significant but has yet to be fully elucidated.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

High‐resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river‐flow management

Despite the recognized importance of reservoirs and dams, global datasets describing their characteristics and geographical distribution are largely incomplete. To enable advanced assessments of th ...

Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends

[1] An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970–2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export.

Assessment of contemporary Arctic river runoff based on observational discharge records

We describe the contemporary hydrography of the pan-Arctic land area draining into the Arctic Ocean, northern Bering Sea, and Hudson Bay on the basis of observational records of river discharge and computed runoff. The Regional Arctic Hydrographic Network data set, R-ArcticNET, is presented, which is based on 3754 recording stations drawn from Russian, Canadian, European, and U.S. archives. R-ArcticNET represents the single largest data compendium of observed discharge in the Arctic. Approximately 73% of the nonglaciated area of the pan-Arctic is monitored by at least one river discharge gage giving a mean gage density of 168 gages per 106 km2. Average annual runoff is 212 mm yr−1 with approximately 60% of the river discharge occurring from April to July. Gridded runoff surfaces are generated for the gaged portion of the pan-Arctic region to investigate global change signals. Siberia and Alaska showed increases in winter runoff during the 1980s relative to the 1960s and 1970s during annual and seasonal periods. These changes are consistent with observations of change in the climatology of the region. Western Canada experienced decreased spring and summer runoff.

Global system of rivers: Its role in organizing continental land mass and defining land‐to‐ocean linkages

The spatial organization of the Earths land mass is analyzed using a simulated topological network (STN-30p) representing potential flow pathways across the entire nonglacierized surface of the globe at 30-min (longitude × latitude) spatial resolution. We discuss a semiautomated procedure to develop this topology combining digital elevation models and manual network editing. STN-30p was verified against several independent sources including map products and drainage basin statistics, although we found substantial inconsistency within the extant literature itself. A broad suite of diagnostics is offered that quantitatively describes individual grid cells, river segments, and complete drainage systems spanning orders 1 through 6 based on the Strahler classification scheme. Continental and global-scale summaries of key STN-30p attributes are given. Summaries are also presented which distinguish basins that potentially deliver discharge to an ocean (exorheic) from those that potentially empty into an internal receiving body (endorheic). A total of 59,122 individual grid cells constitutes the global nonglacierized land mass. At 30-min spatial resolution, the cells are organized into 33,251 distinct river segments which define 6152 drainage basins. A global total of 133.1 × 106 km2 bear STN-SOp flow paths with a total length of 3.24 × 106 km. The organization of river networks has an important role in linking land mass to ocean. From a continental perspective, low-order river segments (orders 1-3) drain the largest fraction of land (90%) and thus constitute a primary source area for runoff and constituents. From an oceanic perspective, however, the small number (n=101) of large drainage systems (orders 4-6) predominates; draining 65% of global land area and subsuming a large fraction of the otherwise spatially remote low-order rivers. Along river corridors, only 10% of land mass is within 100 km of a coastline, 25% is within 250 km, and 50% is within 750 km. The global mean distance to river mouth is 1050 km with individual continental values from 460 to 1340 km. The Mediterranean/Black Sea and Arctic Ocean are the most land-dominated of all oceans with land:ocean area ratios of 4.4 and 1.2, respectively; remaining oceans show ratios from 0.55 to 0.13. We discuss limitations of the STN-30p together with its potential role in future global change studies. STN-30p is geographically linked to several hundred river discharge and chemistry monitoring stations to provide a framework for calibrating and validating macroscale hydrology and biogeochemical flux models.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

Significance Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Significance Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are widely expected to influence global climate over the coming century. The impact on drought is uncertain because of the complexity of the processes but can be estimated using outputs from an ensemble of global models (hydrological and climate models). Using an ensemble of 35 simulations, we show a likely increase in the global severity of drought by the end of 21st century, with regional hotspots including South America and Central and Western Europe in which the frequency of drought increases by more than 20%. The main source of uncertainty in the results comes from the hydrological models, with climate models contributing to a substantial but smaller amount of uncertainty. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Uncertainties in Precipitation and Their Impacts on Runoff Estimates

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies. Precipitation is one of the most critical input variables for such calculations because it is the immediate source of water for the land surface hydrological budget. Numerous precipitation datasets have been developed in the last two decades, but these datasets often show marked differences in their spatial and temporal distribution of this key hydrological variable. This paper compares six monthly precipitation datasets—Climate Research Unit of University of East Anglia (CRU), Willmott‐Matsuura (WM), Global Precipitation Climate Center (GPCC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and NCEP‐Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis (NCEP-2)—to assess the uncertainties in these datasets and their impact on the terrestrial water balance. The six datasets tested in the present paper were climatologically averaged and compared by calculating various statistics of the differences. The climatologically averaged monthly precipitation estimates were applied as inputs to a water balance model to estimate runoff and the uncertainties in runoff arising directly from the precipitation estimates. The results of this study highlight the need for accurate precipitation inputs for water balance calculations. These results also demonstrate the need to improve precipitation estimates in arid and semiarid regions, where slight changes in precipitation can result in dramatic changes in the runoff response due to the nonlinearity of the runoff-generation processes.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as Indias Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations.