B. Mike Wotton

Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.

Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications

Understanding and being able to predict forest fire occurrence, fire growth and fire intensity are important aspects of forest fire management. In Canada fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to help predict these elements of forest fire activity. In this paper a review of the CFFDRS is presented with the main focus on understanding and interpreting Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. The need to interpret the outputs of the FWI System with consideration to regional differences is emphasized and examples are shown of how the relationship between actual fuel moisture and the FWI System’s moisture codes vary from region to region. Examples are then shown of the relationship between fuel moisture and fire occurrence for both human- and lightning-caused fire for regions with different forest composition. The relationship between rate of spread, fuel consumption and the relative fire behaviour indices of the FWI System for different forest types is also discussed. The outputs of the CFFDRS are used every day across Canada by fire managers in every district, regional and provincial fire management office. The purpose of this review is to provide modellers with an understanding of this system and how its outputs can be interpreted. It is hoped that this review will expose statistical modellers and other researchers to some of the models used currently in forest fire management and encourage further research and development of models useful for understanding and managing forest fire activity.

Modelling the probability of sustained flaming: predictive value of fire weather index components compared with observations of site weather and fuel moisture conditions

We investigated the likelihood that short-duration sustained flaming would develop in forest ground fuels that had direct contact with a small and short-lived flame source. Data from 1027 small-scale experimental test fires conducted in field trials at six sites in British Columbia and the North-West Territories between 1958 and 1961 were used to develop logistic regression models for ten fuel categories that represent unique combinations of forest cover, ground fuel type, and in some cases, season. Separate models were developed using two subsets of independent variables: (1) weather variables and fuel moisture measurements taken at the site of the test fire; and (2) Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system components calculated from weather observations recorded at a nearby station. Results indicated that models developed with FWI system components were as effective as models developed with site variables at predicting the probability of short-duration sustained flaming in most fuel categories. FWI system components were not useful for predicting sustained flaming in spring grass fuels and had limited usefulness for modelling the probability of sustained flaming in aspen leaf ground fuels during summer conditions. For all other fuel categories, FWI system components were highly effective substitutes for site variables for modelling the probability of sustained flaming.

Stand-specific litter moisture content calibrations for the Canadian fine fuel moisture code

A large dataset of litter moisture measurements collected at several sites across Canada by the Canadian Forest Service over the period from 1939 to 1961 is analysed. The stands in which sampling was carried out were described by three main variables: forest type (pine, spruce, Douglas fir, mixedwood and deciduous), season (spring, summer and fall), and stand density (light, moderate and dense). All three variables were found to have a significant influence on the relationship between the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System’s Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and surface litter moisture. Moisture in the upper duff layer was also found to have a significant influence on the relationship between FFMC and litter moisture content, with a wetter duff layer leading to moister surface conditions than would be indicated by the FFMC value. A model for litter moisture is developed, which provides a method of adjusting the standard FFMC value for the influences of forest type, stand density, season and duff moisture content.

Flame temperature and residence time of fires in dry eucalypt forest

Temperature profiles of flames were measured using arrays of thermocouples on towers located in experimental bushfires of varying intensity, carried out in dry eucalypt forest of different fuel age and structure. In-fire video of flame-front passage and time series data from very fine exposed thermocouples were used to estimate the duration of passage of the main flaming front in these experimental fires. Flame temperature measured at points within the flame was found to vary with height; maximum flame temperature was greater in the tall shrub fuel than in the low shrub fuel sites. A model to estimate flame temperature at any height within a flame of a specific height was developed. The maximum flame temperature observed was ~1100°C near the flame base and, when observation height was normalised by flame height, flame temperature exponentially decreased to the visible flame tip where temperatures were ~300°C. Maximum flame temperature was significantly correlated with rate of spread, fire intensity, flame height and surface fuel bulk density. Average flame-front residence time for eucalypt forest fuels was 37 s and did not vary significantly with fine fuel moisture, fuel quantity or bulk density.

Evaluation of two risk mitigation strategies for dealing with fire-related uncertainty in timber supply modelling

We embedded a linear programming timber harvest scheduling model into an aspatial stochastic simulation model of a flammable forest to evaluate two fire risk mitigation strategies. The harvest sche...

Defining fire spread event days for fire-growth modelling

Forest fire managers have long understood that most of a fire’s growth typically occurs on a small number of days when burning conditions are conducive for spread. Fires either grow very slowly at low intensity or burn considerable area in a ‘run’. A simple classification of days into ‘spread events’ and ‘non-spread events’ can greatly improve estimates of area burned. Studies with fire-growth models suggest that the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System (FBP System) seems to predict growth well during high-intensity ‘spread events’ but tends to overpredict rate of spread for non-spread events. In this study, we provide an objective weather-based definition of ‘spread events’, making it possible to assess the probability of having a spread event on any particular day. We demonstrate the benefit of incorporating this ‘spread event’ day concept into a fire-growth model based on the Canadian FBP System.

Forest Fire Risk Assessment: An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada

This paper presents an analysis of ignition and burn risk due to wildfire in a region of Ontario, Canada using a methodology which is applicable to the entire boreal forest region. A generalized additive model was employed to obtain ignition risk probabilities and a burn probability map using only historic ignition and fire area data. Constructing fire shapes according to an accurate physical model for fire spread, using a fuel map and realistic weather scenarios is possible with the Prometheus fire growth simulation model. Thus, we applied the Burn-P3 implementation of Prometheus to construct a more accurate burn probability map. The fuel map for the study region was verified and corrected. Burn-P3 simulations were run under the settings (related to weather) recommended in the software documentation and were found to be fairly robust to errors in the fuel map, but simulated fire sizes were substantially larger than those observed in the historic record. By adjusting the input parameters to reflect suppression effects, we obtained a model which gives more appropriate fire sizes. The resulting burn probability map suggests that risk of fire in the study area is much lower than what is predicted by Burn-P3 under its recommended settings.

Characterisation of the fuel and fire environment in southern Ontario’s tallgrass prairie

Prescribed burning can be an integral part of tallgrass prairie restoration and management. Understanding fire behaviour in this fuel is critical to conducting safe and effective prescribed burns. Our goal was to quantify important physical characteristics of southern Ontario’s tallgrass fuel complex prior to and during prescribed burns and synthesise our findings into useful applications for the prescribed fire community. We found that the average fuel load in tallgrass communities was 0.70 kg m–2. Fuel loads varied from 0.38 to 0.96 kg m–2. Average heat of combustion did not vary by species and was 17 334 kJ kg–1. A moisture content model was developed for fully cured, matted field grass, which was found to successfully predict moisture content of the surface layers of cured tallgrass in spring. We observed 25 head fires in spring-season prescribed burns with spread rates ranging from 4 to 55 m min–1. Flame front residence time averaged 27 s, varying significantly with fuel load but not fire spread rate. A grassland spread rate model from Australia showed the closest agreement with observed spread rates. These results provide prescribed-burn practitioners in Ontario better information to plan and deliver successful burns.

Correction to cffdrs: an R package for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

The original publication [1] has an error in the citation of figure 1. Below you will find the correct version.