B. N. Nagpal

Identification of malaria hot spots for focused intervention in tribal state of India: a GIS based approach

BackgroundIn India, presently malaria shows a declining trend whereas Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) cases show an up trend. In central India, specifically, Madhya Pradesh (M.P.) a forested and tribal area, control of malaria is logistically difficult and outbreaks are frequently recorded, reasons for this being inadequate surveillance, poor reporting, a time lag in reporting to decision makers and a lack of geo referenced information to pin point the trouble spots for a timely preventive action.ResultsAn information management system based on Geographic Information System (GIS) using district and block wise malaria data, has been constructed for Madhya Pradesh for quick retrieval of info and dynamic generation of maps to highlight hot spots of malaria for formulating prompt and focused malaria control strategy. Out of total 48 districts consisting of 313 blocks, based on certain criteria GIS identified 58 blocks falling in 25 districts as Hot Spots. Malaria flares up from these pockets whenever favourable conditions for transmission occurs. It was suggested to National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP) that focused malaria control in these hot pockets may be taken up on priority during the year 2007, it was implemented by State Health Authorities, M.P. under the directive of NVBDCP. Implementation of control measures were evaluated by NVBDCP.ConclusionGIS mapping would make it easy to update information instantly and to identify the trouble spots at the village level within the district which is the lowest unit equipped with computer facilities and the information can reach instantly to state and the policy makers to formulate focused and cost effective malaria control strategy. This is the first time when GIS has been used in national control programme for tribal malaria.

GIS based malaria information management system for urban malaria scheme in India

A GIS based information management system has been developed to help Urban Malaria Control in India. The basic objective is to develop a model to assist planning and implementation of a suitable control measure. The system can help in: (i) identifying high receptive areas in time and space domain; (ii) identifying risk factors for high receptivity; (iii) monitoring and evaluating control measures. To demonstrate this system, information on 33 parameters and malaria cases has been attached to a digitised map of Dindigul, an urban town in Tamil Nadu. Functionalities of the system and its utility are described in this paper. A GIS based information management system ensures that if a localised spurt of the disease occurs, it can be associated rapidly with a likely cause, a specific vector, and a probable human source, so that appropriate preventive action can be taken to arrest any rising trend.

Prediction of Anopheles minimus habitat in India—a tool for malaria management

This paper reports research to predict the distribution of An. minimus, a malaria vector in forest fringe areas using GIS to support precision surveys for malaria control. Because An. minimus is a forest‐associated species, generalized thematic maps (1:6 000 000) of forest cover, soil type, altitude, rainfall and temperature were used. Digitization, overlaying, integration and analysis of thematic maps were done using Arc/Info 8.1 NT and Arc/View 3.2 (GIS, ESRI) software. GIS delineated favourable areas for An. minimus where the species is likely to be found, and precision surveys can be conducted. Precision field surveys in selected locations of favourable/non‐favourable areas were carried out. The species could be found in all locations designated as a favourable area and was absent in non‐favourable areas. In two districts, one where the species is reported to have disappeared in the early 1950s and the other where it was not reported in earlier surveys, GIS helped in precision surveys, and An. minimus was found. The technique can quickly cover vast and inaccessible areas and is easy to duplicate in other parts of the world to assist cost‐effective control of malaria. It can also delineate areas favourable for any species of flora and fauna to help precision surveys.

An epidemiological study of dengue in Delhi, India.

Delhi, the capital of India, is an important metropolitan hub for major financial and sociocultural exchanges, offering challenging threats to current public health infrastructure. In recent past, an upsurge of dengue cases in Delhi posed a significant menace to the existing dengue control policies. To reform the control strategies and take timely intervention to prevent future epidemics, an epidemiological study on the proportion of both asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections in selected population was conducted. The aim of the study was to investigate and assess the epidemiology of dengue infection and to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections in Delhi. In this study, around 50 confirmed dengue cases, a total of 2125 individuals as household and neighbourhood contacts, with or without dengue febrile illness, were finger pricked and serologically detected as dengue positive or negative using SD Duo Bioline Rapid Diagnostic Test (SD Inc, Korea) with NS1, IgM & IgG combo test, which detected dengue virus antigen and antibodies to dengue virus in human blood. Out of 2125 individuals, 768 (36.1%) individuals showed positive dengue test with past (25.5%), primary (1.88%) or secondary (8.8%) dengue infections. Higher percentage of IgG was found in age groups 15-24 years and 25-50 years (36% each). Infants (<1 year) presented higher incidence of new infections (22% of NS1+IgM positives) as compared to adults. Further analysis revealed that out of the 226 newly infected cases (including NS1 and IgM positives), 142 (63%) were asymptomatic and 84 (37%) were symptomatic, as per WHO guidelines. Our findings also suggest that out of the total population screened, 10.6% dengue infection was either primary or secondary. On the basis of these results, it may be hypothesized that there are large number of asymptomatic dengue infections in the community as compared to reported symptomatic cases in Delhi. For the effective control of dengue transmission in such community like Delhi where dengue epidemics have frequently been encountered, it is essential to ascertain the proportion of asymptomatic dengue infections which may act as a reservoir for dengue transmission, as well as threat for developing dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF).

A study of the relationship of rice cultivation and annual parasite incidence of malaria in India

Twenty one year data (1963-1983) of 25 states/UTs of India on area under rice cultivation and annual parasite incidence was analysed using correlation and regression analysis to evaluate the relationship of irrigated area under rice cultivation and the statewise annual parasite incidence of malaria. In 23 states either the correlation is negative or non-significant whereas in Punjab and Nagaland significant positive correlation is observed. Study showed that in India at the macro level (i.e. data pooled at the state level both for rice cultivation and (API) rice cultivation by and large had poor relationship to API.

The Spread of Dengue in an Endemic Urban Milieu-The Case of Delhi, India

Background Dengue is a major international public health concern, one of the most important arthropod-borne diseases. More than 3.5 billion people are at risk of dengue infection and there are an estimated 390 million dengue infections annually. This prolific increase has been connected to societal changes such as population growth and increasing urbanization generating intense agglomeration leading to proliferation of synanthropic mosquito species. Quantifying the spatio-temporal epidemiology of dengue in large cities within the context of a Geographic Information System is a first step in the identification of socio-economic risk factors. Methodology/Principal Findings This Project has been approved by the ethical committee of Institut Pasteur. Data has been anonymized and de-identified prior to geolocalisation and analysis. A GIS was developed for Delhi, enabling typological characterization of the urban environment. Dengue cases identified in the Delhi surveillance system from 2008 to 2010 were collated, localised and embedded within this GIS. The spatio-temporal distribution of dengue cases and extent of clustering were analyzed. Increasing distance from the forest in Delhi reduced the risk of occurrence of a dengue case. Proximity to a hospital did not increase risk of a notified dengue case. Overall, there was high heterogeneity in incidence rate within areas with the same socio-economical profiles and substantial inter-annual variability. Dengue affected the poorest areas with high density of humans, but rich areas were also found to be infected, potentially because of their central location with respect to the daily mobility network of Delhi. Dengue cases were highly clustered in space and there was a strong relationship between the time of introduction of the virus and subsequent cluster size. At a larger scale, earlier introduction predicted the total number of cases. Conclusions/Significance DENV epidemiology within Delhi has a forest fire signature. The stochastic nature of this invasion process likely smothers any detectable socio-economic risk factors. However, the significant finding that the size of the dengue case cluster depends on the timing of its emergence emphasizes the need for early case detection and implementation of effective mosquito control. A better understanding of the role of population mobility in contributing to dengue risk could also help focus control on areas at particular risk of dengue virus importation.

Control of Aedes aegypti Breeding: A Novel Intervention for Prevention and Control of Dengue in an Endemic Zone of Delhi, India

Background and objective The study is based on hypothesis that whether continuous entomological surveillance of Ae. aegypti and simultaneous appropriate interventions in key containers during non-transmission (December–May) months would have any impact on breeding of Aedes and dengue cases during the following transmission months (June–November). The impact of the surveillance and intervention measures undertaken during non-transmission months were assessed by entomological indicators namely container index (CI), house index (HI), pupal index (PI) and breteau index (BI). Methods A total of 28 localities of West Zone of Delhi with persistent dengue endemicity were selected for the study. Out of these localities, 20 were included in study group while other 8 localities were in control group. IEC and various Aedes breeding control activities were carried out in study group in both non-transmission and transmission season whereas control group did not have any such interventions during non-transmission months as per guidelines of MCD. These activities were undertaken by a team of investigators from NIMR and SDMC, Delhi. In control group, investigators from NIMR carried out surveillance activity to monitor the breeding of Aedes mosquito in localities. Results Comparison of baseline data revealed that all indices in control and study group of localities were comparable and statistically non-significant (p>0.05). In both study and control groups, indices were calculated after pooling data on seasonal basis, i.e., transmission and non-transmission months for both years. The test of significance conducted on all the four indices, i.e., HI, PI, CI, and BI, revealed a significant difference (p<0.05) between the study group and control group during transmission and non-transmission months except in HI. Due to consistent intervention measures undertaken in non-transmission months in study group, reduction in CI, HI, BI and PI was observed 63%, 62%, 64% and 99% respectively during transmission months as compared to control group where increase of 59%, 102%, 73% and 71% respectively. As a result of reduction in larval indices, no dengue case (except one NS1) was observed in study group, whereas 38 dengue cases were observed in control group. Conclusion Through this pilot study, it is concluded that proper intervention in non-transmission season reduces vector density and subsequently dengue cases in transmission season.

An epidemiological study of dengue and its coinfections in Delhi

OBJECTIVES To study the epidemiology of dengue with reference to serological, demographic profile, spatio-temporal distribution, vectors, circulating serotypes and coinfections. METHODS Demographic data and presenting symptoms of fever cases reporting to the clinic were recorded. Suspected patients were tested for dengue, chikungunya and malaria. Dengue specific RT-PCR was performed to detect circulating DENV serotypes. Vector surveys were carried out to detect Aedes breeding. RESULTS Of the 5536 fever patients tested during 2012 to 2015, 1536 (27.7%) had confirmed dengue. The peak in dengue positivity was observed during September and October. Of the 60 samples analysed, 10 (16.7%) had concurrent infection with multiple dengue serotypes; one of them had all the four serotypes. Coinfection of dengue with malaria and chikungunya was also observed. The occurrence of dengue and malaria was inversely related. Seven percent of the dengue patients required hospitalization. Vector surveys in the draining area revealed Aedes breeding with a high house index. CONCLUSION Delhi being hyperendemic, the occurrence of concurrent infections with multiple DENV serotypes has become a frequent finding. The study emphasizes the need of epidemiological and entomological surveillance to monitor trends in dengue distribution, seasonal patterns and circulating serotypes to guide dengue control activities.