Bailey Klinger

The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations

Economies grow by upgrading the products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions, and skills needed to make newer products are more easily adapted from some products than from others. Here, we study this network of relatedness between products, or “product space,” finding that more-sophisticated products are located in a densely connected core whereas less-sophisticated products occupy a less-connected periphery. Empirically, countries move through the product space by developing goods close to those they currently produce. Most countries can reach the core only by traversing empirically infrequent distances, which may help explain why poor countries have trouble developing more competitive exports and fail to converge to the income levels of rich countries.

Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space

In this paper we examine the product space and its consequences for the process of structural transformation. We argue that the assets and capabilities needed to produce one good are imperfect substitutes for those needed to produce other goods, but the degree of asset specificity varies widely. Given this, the speed of structural transformation will depend on the density of the product space near the area where each country has developed its comparative advantage. While this space is traditionally assumed to be smooth and continuous, we find that in fact it is very heterogeneous, with some areas being very dense and others quite sparse. We develop a measure of revealed proximity between products using comparative advantage in order to map this space, and then show that its heterogeneity is not without consequence. The speed at which countries can transform their productive structure and upgrade their exports depends on having a path to nearby goods that are increasingly of higher value. [Jointly published as Center for International Development Working Paper No. 128 and KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP06-041.]

South Africa's Export Predicament

Using South Africa as an example, this article explores how the structure of production affects export diversification and economic growth. We show that the lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita in South Africa over the past 40 years. This slow structural transformation is shown to be a consequence in part of the peripheral nature of South Africas productive capabilities: the country is specialized in sectors intensive in highly specific factors of production that cannot be easily redeployed to other activities. Using this methodology, we examine the sectoral priorities of the South African Department of Trade and Industry and explore the policy implications of the countrys orientation in the product space.

Innovation and Export Portfolios

This paper examines the link between sectoral concentration and overall performance in the search for on-the-frontier innovations, inside-the-frontier innovations, and export booms. It extends the literature by increasing country coverage and the types of search processes considered, and by focusing on the links with overall performance in these search processes. After controlling for the necessary relationships as well as fixed effects at the country/commodity group level, the paper finds a clear negative relationship between the concentration of innovation portfolios and performance: countries that are the most successful in these search processes have their successes spread across a broader range of industries than those with poorer performance. Furthermore, the search for export booms exhibits the least amount of sectoral concentration and path-dependence. These findings suggest that public support for these processes need not be focused in a narrow range of sectors, and modeling of these processes in theoretical work, particularly in the search for export booms, should be of a stochastic flavor.