Bálint Czúcz

Present and forecasted xeric climatic limits of beech and sessile oak distribution at low altitudes in Central Europe

Abstract• IntroductionXeric (trailing) forest range limits are particularly vulnerable to impacts of predicted climate change. Regional modelling studies contribute to the identification of potential local climatic threats and may support appropriate management strategies.• MethodsWe carried out bioclimatic distribution modelling of two climate-dependent, dominant tree species, beech and sessile oak, to determine the most influential climatic variables limiting their distributions and to predict their climate-induced range shifts over the twenty-first century in the forest-steppe biome transition zone of Hungary. To exclude confounding effects of edaphic conditions, only data of zonal sites were evaluated.• ResultsFor both species, temperature and precipitation conditions in late spring and summer appear as principal variables determining the distribution, with beech particularly affected by summer drought. Projections from the applied fine-scale analysis and modelling results indicate that climate change may lead to drastic reduction in macroclimatically suitable sites for both forest types.• ConclusionRegarding the stands in zonal position, 56–99% of present-day beech forests and 82–100% of sessile oak forests might be outside their present bioclimatic niche by 2050. Phenotypic plasticity, longevity, endurance of non-zonal stands and prudent human support may brighten these dire predictions. Nevertheless, an urgent adjustment of forest management and conservation strategies seems inevitable.

Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services: Indicators for ecosystem assessments under Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020

Environment Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Summary The second MAES report presents indicators that can be used at European and Member States level to map and assess biodiversity, ecosystem condition and ecosystem services according to the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES v4.3). This work is based on a review of data and indicators available at national and European level and is applying the MAES analytical framework adopted in 2013.

Regeneration of sandy old-fields in the forest steppe region of Hungary

Abstract Abandoned agricultural fields are potential sites for the regeneration of natural vegetation, and land abandonment is a widespread phenomenon in the developed world. We studied the vegetation of 161 old-fields in the Kiskunság, central Hungary. Old-fields were categorized into three age groups based on historical aerial photographs: fields abandoned 1–7, 8–20, and 21–57 years ago. Old-field vegetation was compared to potential target communities (open and closed grassland and forest) based on the richness and cover of predefined species groups (all species, neophytes, characteristic species of natural habitats). In general, the medium- and old-aged old-fields only slightly differed from each other, and were more similar to open natural grasslands than to closed ones, although they occupied environments that were intermediate between open and closed grasslands. Forest species establishment was limited in the old-fields; therefore, forest regeneration seems to be unlikely on old-fields at a decadal time scale. The dominance of alien species only slightly declined with old-field age and was much higher than in natural grasslands. The finding that open grassland communities recovered on these old-field sites, but were accompanied by stable alien components, suggests that these communities could be regarded as a new combination of species, or novel communities, with a considerably high conservation value.

Practical application of spatial ecosystem service models to aid decision support

Highlights • A structured protocol for adapting a spatial ecosystem service model to local contexts is proposed.• Decision context, the final users and uses of maps should drive the way the spatial ecosystem service models are structured.• Simply increasing spatial resolution is not sufficient to increase legitimacy and the ultimate utility of maps.• The type and level of stakeholders’ involvement is a determinant of spatial model usefulness.

Implementation and application of multiple potential natural vegetation models – a case study of Hungary

Questions Multiple potential natural vegetation (MPNV) is a framework for the probabilistic and multilayer representation of potential vegetation in an area. How can an MPNV model be implemented and synthesized for the full range of vegetation types across a large spatial domain such as a country? What additional ecological and practical information can be gained compared to traditional potential natural vegetation (PNV) estimates? Location Hungary. Methods MPNV was estimated by modelling the occurrence probabilities of individual vegetation types using gradient boosting models (GBM). Vegetation data from the Hungarian Actual Habitat Database (META) and information on the abiotic background (climatic data, soil characteristics, hydrology) were used as inputs to the models. To facilitate MPNV interpretation a new technique for model synthesis (re-scaling) enabling comprehensive visual presentation (synthetic maps) was developed which allows for a comparative view of the potential distribution of individual vegetation types. Results The main result of MPNV modelling is a series of raw and re-scaled probability maps of individual vegetation types for Hungary. Raw probabilities best suit within-type analyses, while re-scaled estimations can also be compared across vegetation types. The latter create a synthetic overview of a locations PNV as a ranked list of vegetation types, and make the comparison of actual and potential landscape composition possible. For example, a representation of forest vs grasslands in MPNV revealed a high level of overlap of the potential range of the two formations in Hungary. Conclusion The MPNV approach allows viewing the potential vegetation composition of locations in far more detail than the PNV approach. Re-scaling the probabilities estimated by the models allows easy access to the results by making potential presence of vegetation types with different data structure comparable for queries and synthetic maps. The wide range of applications identified for MPNV (conservation and restoration prioritization, landscape evaluation) suggests that the PNV concept with the extension towards vegetation distributions is useful both for research and application.

Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services indicators for ecosystem assessments under action 5 of the EU biodiversity strategy to 2020: 2nd report - final, February 2014

Environment Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Summary The second MAES report presents indicators that can be used at European and Member States level to map and assess biodiversity, ecosystem condition and ecosystem services according to the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES v4.3). This work is based on a review of data and indicators available at national and European level and is applying the MAES analytical framework adopted in 2013.

Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services. Indicators for ecosystem assessment under Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 : 2nd report - final, February 2014

Environment Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Summary The second MAES report presents indicators that can be used at European and Member States level to map and assess biodiversity, ecosystem condition and ecosystem services according to the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES v4.3). This work is based on a review of data and indicators available at national and European level and is applying the MAES analytical framework adopted in 2013.