Baltazar Nunes

Estimates of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe, 2009–2010: Results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) Multicentre Case-Control Study

Results from a European multicentre case-control study reported by Marta Valenciano and colleagues suggest good protection by the pandemic monovalent H1N1 vaccine against pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine on H1N1.

I-MOVE Multi-Centre Case Control Study 2010-11: Overall and Stratified Estimates of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe

Background In the third season of I-MOVE (Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe), we undertook a multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks in eight European Union (EU) member states to estimate 2010/11 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza. Methods Using systematic sampling, practitioners swabbed ILI/ARI patients within seven days of symptom onset. We compared influenza-positive to influenza laboratory-negative patients among those meeting the EU ILI case definition. A valid vaccination corresponded to > 14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We used multiple imputation with chained equations to estimate missing values. Using logistic regression with study as fixed effect we calculated influenza VE adjusting for potential confounders. We estimated influenza VE overall, by influenza type, age group and among the target group for vaccination. Results We included 2019 cases and 2391 controls in the analysis. Adjusted VE was 52% (95% CI 30-67) overall (N = 4410), 55% (95% CI 29-72) against A(H1N1) and 50% (95% CI 14-71) against influenza B. Adjusted VE against all influenza subtypes was 66% (95% CI 15-86), 41% (95% CI -3-66) and 60% (95% CI 17-81) among those aged 0-14, 15-59 and ≥60 respectively. Among target groups for vaccination (N = 1004), VE was 56% (95% CI 34-71) overall, 59% (95% CI 32-75) against A(H1N1) and 63% (95% CI 31-81) against influenza B. Conclusions Results suggest moderate protection from 2010-11 trivalent influenza vaccines against medically-attended ILI laboratory-confirmed as influenza across Europe. Adjusted and stratified influenza VE estimates are possible with the large sample size of this multi-centre case-control. I-MOVE shows how a network can provide precise summary VE measures across Europe.

Validation of host-specific Bacteriodales 16S rRNA genes as markers to determine the origin of faecal pollution in Atlantic Rim countries of the European Union

The recent implementation of the Revised Bathing Water Directive in the European Union has highlighted the need for development of effective methods to differentiate between sources of faecal contamination. It had previously been shown that amplification of 16S rRNA genes of host-specific Bacteriodales species using the HF183F and CF128F primers could be used as markers for human and bovine faecal contamination in the United States. This paper determined the sensitivity and specificity of these markers in four Atlantic Rim countries (France, Ireland, Portugal and the United Kingdom) to evaluate their usefulness in determining the origin of faecal contamination. It was shown that the HF183F marker displayed high sensitivity (80-100%) and specificity (91-100%), and is reliable as an indication of human faecal contamination. The CF128F marker displayed 100% sensitivity in all four countries. However, strong regional variations in specificity (41-96%) were observed, highlighting the need for local validation before this marker is employed in source tracking of faecal contamination.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates in Europe in a season with three influenza type/subtypes circulating: the I-MOVE multicentre case–control study, influenza season 2012/13

In the fifth season of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE), we undertook a multicentre case-control study (MCCS) in seven European Union (EU) Member States to measure 2012/13 influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory confirmed as influenza. The season was characterised by substantial co-circulation of influenza B, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses. Practitioners systematically selected ILI patients to swab ≤7 days of symptom onset. We compared influenza-positive by type/subtype to influenza-negative patients among those who met the EU ILI case definition. We conducted a complete case analysis using logistic regression with study as fixed effect and calculated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (AVE), controlling for potential confounders (age, sex, symptom onset week and presence of chronic conditions). We calculated AVE by type/subtype. Study sites sent 7,954 ILI/acute respiratory infection records for analysis. After applying exclusion criteria, we included 4,627 ILI patients in the analysis of VE against influenza B (1,937 cases), 3,516 for A(H1N1)pdm09 (1,068 cases) and 3,340 for influenza A(H3N2) (730 cases). AVE was 49.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.4 to 62.0) against influenza B, 50.4% (95% CI: 28.4 to 65.6) against A(H1N1)pdm09 and 42.2% (95% CI: 14.9 to 60.7) against A(H3N2). Our results suggest an overall low to moderate AVE against influenza B, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), between 42 and 50%. In this season with many co-circulating viruses, the high sample size enabled stratified AVE by type/subtype. The low estimates indicate seasonal influenza vaccines should be improved to achieve acceptable protection levels.

Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza Epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

Background Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004. Methodology/Principal Findings We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P<0.001) and with seasonal rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI) among seniors over 65 years (Pearson correlation rho>0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries. Conclusions/Significance Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings.

Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method

Please cite this paper as: Vega et al. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 546–558.

Excess mortality among the elderly in European countries, December 2014 to February 2015.

Since December 2014 and up to February 2015, the weekly number of excess deaths from all-causes among individuals ≥ 65 years of age in 14 European countries have been significantly higher than in the four previous winter seasons. The rise in unspecified excess mortality coincides with increased proportion of influenza detection in the European influenza surveillance schemes with a main predominance of influenza A (H3N2) viruses seen throughout Europe in the current season, though cold snaps and other respiratory infections may also have had an effect.

I-MOVE multicentre case–control study 2010/11 to 2014/15 : is there within-season waning of influenza type/subtype vaccine effectiveness with increasing time since vaccination?

Since the 2008/9 influenza season, the I-MOVE multicentre case-control study measures influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically-attended influenza-like-illness (ILI) laboratory confirmed as influenza. In 2011/12, European studies reported a decline in VE against influenza A(H3N2) within the season. Using combined I-MOVE data from 2010/11 to 2014/15 we studied the effects of time since vaccination on influenza type/subtype-specific VE. We modelled influenza type/subtype-specific VE by time since vaccination using a restricted cubic spline, controlling for potential confounders (age, sex, time of onset, chronic conditions). Over 10,000 ILI cases were included in each analysis of influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and B; with 4,759, 3,152 and 3,617 influenza positive cases respectively. VE against influenza A(H3N2) reached 50.6% (95% CI: 30.0-65.1) 38 days after vaccination, declined to 0% (95% CI: -18.1-15.2) from 111 days onwards. At day 54 VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 reached 55.3% (95% CI: 37.9-67.9) and remained between this value and 50.3% (95% CI: 34.8-62.1) until season end. VE against influenza B declined from 70.7% (95% CI: 51.3-82.4) 44 days after vaccination to 21.4% (95% CI: -57.4-60.8) at season end. To assess if vaccination campaign strategies need revising more evidence on VE by time since vaccination is urgently needed.

Evolutionary Dynamics of ompA, the Gene Encoding the Chlamydia trachomatis Key Antigen

Chlamydia trachomatis is the trachoma agent and causes most bacterial sexually transmitted infections worldwide. Its major outer membrane protein (MOMP) is a well-known porin and adhesin and is the dominant antigen. So far, investigation of MOMP variability has been focused mainly on molecular epidemiological surveys. In contrast, we aimed to evaluate the impact of the host pressure on this key antigen by analyzing its evolutionary dynamics in 795 isolates from urogenital infections, taking into account the MOMP secondary structure and the sizes/positions of antigenic regions. One-third of the specimens showed a mutational drift from the corresponding genotype, where approximately 42% of the mutations had never been described. Amino acid alterations were sixfold more frequent within B-cell epitopes than in the remaining protein (P = 0.027), and some mutations were also found within or close to T-cell antigenic clusters. Interestingly, the two most ecologically successful genotypes, E and F, showed a mutation rate 60.3-fold lower than that of the other genotypes (P < 10(-8)), suggesting that their efficacy may be the result of a better fitness in dealing with the host immune system rather than of specific virulence factors. Furthermore, the variability exhibited by some genetic variants involved residues that are known to play a critical role during the membrane mechanical movements, contributing to a more stable and flexible porin conformation, which suggests some plasticity to deal with environmental pressure. Globally, these MOMP mutational trends yielded no mosaic structures or important phylogenetic changes, but instead yielded point mutations on specific protein domains, which may enhance pathogens infectivity, persistence, and transmission.

Elder Abuse in Portugal: Findings From the First National Prevalence Study

In this study, we present findings of the Portuguese national prevalence study, “Aging and Violence,” the purpose of which was to estimate the prevalence of abuse and neglect of older people in family settings over a 12-month period and examine the relationship between abuse and sociodemographic and health characteristics. Through a telephone survey of a representative probability sample (N = 1,123), we evaluated 12 abusive behaviors and demographic data. Overall, 12.3% of older adults experienced elder abuse in family settings. The prevalence rates of specific types were as follows: psychological, 6.3%; financial, 6.3%; physical, 2.3%; neglect, 0.4%; and sexual, 0.2%. Logistic regression was employed to determine the relationship between abuse and covariates. The study suggests that education level, age, and functional status are significantly associated with abuse. Accurate estimates of the prevalence of elder abuse and understanding of victim and perpetrator characteristics are fundamental to designing effective strategies for prevention and intervention.