Barbara Broadway

Explaining the SES School Completion Gap

Relatively low rates of school completion among students from low socio-economic (SES) backgrounds is a key transmission mechanism for the persistence of intergenerational inequality. Using a rich dataset that links data from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) with data from the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth (LSAY), we use a decomposition framework to explain the gap in school completion between low and medium SES and between low and high SES. The two most important factors found to explain the gap are lower educational aspirations of low SES students and their parents (over 30% of the gaps) and lower numeracy and reading test scores at age 15 (over 20% of the gaps). Differences in the characteristics of schools (including resources, governance, teachers and peers) attended by low and higher SES students is estimated to be relatively unimportant, explaining only around 6% of the gaps.

Probing the effects of the Australian system of minimum wages on the gender wage gap

When wage setting is more regulated, the gender wage gap tends to decrease. We examine whether this holds for a complex system of occupation- and industry-specific minimum wages, which cover both low-pay and high-pay segments of the labour market. The system has the potential to close the gender wage gap by ensuring equal minimum pay for equal jobs, but it also has the potential to widen it by discriminating against jobs more commonly held by women. We carefully describe wage levels as well as returns to experience and their association with individual gender as well as the male employment share in the individuals field (industry or occupation) of work. We find that the gender wage gap among employees receiving a minimum wage is less than half the magnitude of the gap among other employees. Despite this, there is nonetheless evidence that, within the minimum-wage system, there is a wage penalty for employment in jobs more commonly held by women, although only for employees without university degrees. Our results suggest that, for university-educated women, the regulated setting of minimum wages helps to close the gender wage gap and counteracts the undervaluation of work typically undertaken by women. However, for less-educated women, who comprise approximately 82% of female minimum-wage employees, minimum wages could do more to close the gender wage gap if they were neutral with respect to the gender composition of jobs.

Keep Calm and Consume? Subjective Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings

This paper estimates the effect of income uncertainty on assets held in accounts and cash, and finds substantial empirical evidence for precautionary savings. Using household-level panel data, it explicitly distinguishes between ‘real’ income uncertainty the household is actually exposed to, and ‘perceived’ income uncertainty. It finds that the latter substantially increases precautionary savings above and beyond the effect of ‘real’ income uncertainty. The effect of subjective economic uncertainty on behaviour has only begun to show up after the Great Recession. The economic crisis appears to have shifted households’ willingness to forgo current consumption for insurance purposes. Our results imply that households save above their optimal level especially after and during a crisis, potentially exacerbating the economic downturn.

Do Financial Incentives Influence GPss Decisions to Do After-Hours Work? A Discrete Choice Labour Supply Model

This paper analyses doctors’ supply of after-hours care, and how it is affected by personal and family circumstances as well as the earnings structure. We use detailed survey data from a large sample of Australian General Practitioners to estimate a structural, discrete-choice model of labour supply and after-hours care. This allows us to jointly model how many daytime-weekday hours a doctor works, and his or her probability of providing after-hours care. The underlying utility function varies across individual and family characteristics. We simulate labour supply responses to an increase in doctors’ hourly earnings, both in a daytime-weekday setting and for after-hours care. Among doctors overall, men and women increase their daytime-weekday working hours if their hourly earnings in this setting increases, but only to a very small extent. Men’s labour supply elasticities do not change if their family circumstances change, but for women the small behavioural response disappears completely if they have preschool-aged children. Doctors are somewhat more likely to provide after-hours care if their hourly earnings in that setting increases, but again the effect is very small and is only evident in some sub-groups. Moreover, higher earnings in weekday-daytime practice reduces the probability of providing after-hours care, particularly for men. Increasing doctors’ earnings appears to be at best relatively ineffective in encouraging increased provision of after-hours care, and may even prove harmful if incentives are not well-targeted.

The Importance of Economic Expectations for Retirement Entry

We estimate hazard rates of retirement entry as a function of the option value of work. The individuals’ expectations about the future economy are incorporated in the option value of work, through which they can impact on the timing of retirement entry. In a scenario where individuals expect a strong upturn, the annual hazard rate of retirement entry (average 8.4%) is reduced by 6.0% or half a percentage point compared to a scenario where they expect a downturn. Had individuals been able to anticipate the Global Financial Crisis, the mere expectation of this downturn would have increased retirement entries by 8.7%.