Barbara H. Mason

Vascular events in healthy older women receiving calcium supplementation: randomised controlled trial

Objective To determine the effect of calcium supplementation on myocardial infarction, stroke, and sudden death in healthy postmenopausal women. Design Randomised, placebo controlled trial. Setting Academic medical centre in an urban setting in New Zealand. Participants 1471 postmenopausal women (mean age 74): 732 were randomised to calcium supplementation and 739 to placebo. Main outcome measures Adverse cardiovascular events over five years: death, sudden death, myocardial infarction, angina, other chest pain, stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and a composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or sudden death. Results Myocardial infarction was more commonly reported in the calcium group than in the placebo group (45 events in 31 women v 19 events in 14 women, P=0.01). The composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or sudden death was also more common in the calcium group (101 events in 69 women v 54 events in 42 women, P=0.008). After adjudication myocardial infarction remained more common in the calcium group (24 events in 21 women v 10 events in 10 women, relative risk 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 4.47). For the composite end point 61 events were verified in 51 women in the calcium group and 36 events in 35 women in the placebo group (relative risk 1.47, 0.97 to 2.23). When unreported events were added from the national database of hospital admissions in New Zealand the relative risk of myocardial infarction was 1.49 (0.86 to 2.57) and that of the composite end point was 1.21 (0.84 to 1.74). The respective rate ratios were 1.67 (95% confidence intervals 0.98 to 2.87) and 1.43 (1.01 to 2.04); event rates: placebo 16.3/1000 person years, calcium 23.3/1000 person years. For stroke (including unreported events) the relative risk was 1.37 (0.83 to 2.28) and the rate ratio was 1.45 (0.88 to 2.49). Conclusion Calcium supplementation in healthy postmenopausal women is associated with upward trends in cardiovascular event rates. This potentially detrimental effect should be balanced against the likely benefits of calcium on bone. Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN 012605000242628.

Overall survival from breast cancer in women pregnant or lactating at or after diagnosis

The effect of concurrent or subsequent pregnancy or lactation has been studied in women with breast cancer to determine if these variables influence prognosis. Information was collected from 382 women potentially capable of bearing children, aged less than 45 years, in the Auckland Breast Cancer Study Group data file, a consecutive series of women diagnosed with breast cancer from 1976 to 1985, with a median follow‐up of 10.2 years. The prevalence of both pregnancy at diagnosis and lactation at diagnosis was 2.6%. The incidence of pregnancy subsequent to diagnosis was 3.9%. Women pregnant at the time of breast cancer diagnosis had significantly more advanced disease than non‐pregnant patients, and there was a similar trend for women lactating at diagnosis. Overall survival in these women was poor compared with the non‐pregnant and non‐lactating groups; only 2 of 10 pregnant patients and 0 of 10 lactating patients survived more than 12 years. The adverse outcome for women lactating at diagnosis of their breast cancer persisted despite allowance for nodal status, tumour size and age. However, survival was similar between pregnant and non‐pregnant patients when these variables were taken into account. No significant differences in survival were found between those women who had pregnancies subsequent to diagnosis of breast cancer and breast cancer patients who did not become pregnant.

Evaluation of the FRAX and Garvan fracture risk calculators in older women

Fracture risk calculators estimate the absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures. We investigated the performance of the FRAX and Garvan Institute fracture risk calculators in healthy, older, New Zealand, postmenopausal women with normal bone mineral density (BMD) for their age. Fractures were ascertained in women initially enrolled in a 5‐year trial of calcium supplements and followed on average for 8.8 years. Baseline data (1422 women, mean age 74 years, mean femoral neck BMD T‐score –1.3) were used to estimate fracture risk during follow‐up using the FRAX and Garvan calculators. The FRAX–New Zealand tool was used both with and without baseline BMD. The discrimination of the calculators was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves. The calibration was assessed by comparing estimated risk of fracture with fracture incidence across a range of estimated fracture risks and clinical factors. For each fracture subtype, the calculators had comparable moderate predictive discriminative ability (AUC range: hip fracture 0.67–0.70; osteoporotic fracture 0.62–0.64; any fracture 0.60–0.63) that was similar to that of models using only age and BMD. The Garvan calculator was well calibrated for osteoporotic fractures but overestimated hip fractures. FRAX with BMD underestimated osteoporotic and hip fractures. FRAX without BMD underestimated osteoporotic and overestimated hip fractures. In summary, none of the calculators provided better discrimination than models based on age and BMD, and their discriminative ability was only moderate, which may limit their clinical utility. The calibration varied, suggesting that the calculators should be validated in local cohorts before clinical use.

Vitamin D insufficiency and health outcomes over 5 y in older women

BACKGROUND Vitamin D insufficiency was shown to be associated with adverse musculoskeletal and nonskeletal outcomes in numerous observational studies. However, some studies did not control for confounding factors such as age or seasonal variation of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]. OBJECTIVE We sought to determine the effect of vitamin D status on health outcomes. DESIGN Healthy community-dwelling women (n = 1471) with a mean age of 74 y were followed in a 5-y trial of calcium supplementation. 25(OH)D was measured at baseline in all women. Skeletal and nonskeletal outcomes were evaluated according to seasonally adjusted vitamin D status at baseline. RESULTS Fifty percent of women had a seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D concentration <50 nmol/L. These women were significantly older, heavier, and less physically active and had more comorbidities than women with a seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D concentration > or =50 nmol/L. Women with a seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D concentration <50 nmol/L had an increased incidence of stroke and cardiovascular events that did not persist after adjustment for between-group differences in age or comorbidities. Women with a seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D concentration <50 nmol/L were not at increased risk of adverse consequences for any musculoskeletal outcome, including fracture, falls, bone density, or grip strength or any nonskeletal outcomes, including death, myocardial infarction, cancer, heart failure, diabetes, or adverse changes in blood pressure, weight, body composition, cholesterol, or glucose. CONCLUSIONS Vitamin D insufficiency is more common in older, frailer women. Community-dwelling older women with a seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D concentration <50 nmol/L were not at risk of adverse outcomes over 5 y after control for comorbidities. Randomized placebo-controlled trials are needed to determine whether vitamin D supplementation in individuals with vitamin D insufficiency influences health outcomes. This trial was registered at www.anzctr.org.au as ACTRN 012605000242628.

Relationships between vascular calcification, calcium metabolism, bone density, and fractures†

Factors involved with calcium metabolism, such as serum calcium and phosphate and calcium intake, have been associated with vascular disease in different populations. We investigated whether this association is mediated via increased vascular calcification by assessing relationships between these factors and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) and coronary artery calcification (CAC). A total of 1471 healthy postmenopausal women participated in a 5‐year randomized, placebo‐controlled trial of calcium 1 g/day, and 323 healthy middle‐aged and older men participated in a 2‐year randomized, placebo‐controlled trial of calcium 600 or 1200 mg/day. AAC was assessed on vertebral morphometric images at baseline and follow‐up. Based on computed tomography, 163 men had CAC assessed, on average, 1.5 years after study completion. In elderly women, AAC was positively related to serum calcium (p < .001), phosphate (p = .04), and the calcium‐phosphate product (p = .003), but changes in AAC over time and incidence of cardiovascular events were not related to these variables. In middle‐aged men, AAC and CAC were not consistently related to these variables. Neither dietary calcium intake nor calcium supplementation was associated with changes in the prevalence of AAC over time, and calcium supplementation also was not related to CAC scores in men. After adjusting for age, AAC was not associated with low bone mineral density (BMD) at baseline, changes in BMD over time, or fracture incidence. CAC also was not related to baseline BMD. In summary, serum calcium and phosphate are associated with AAC in older women, but dietary calcium intake and calcium supplementation were not associated with changes in AAC over 2 to 5 years.

Age-, gender-, and weight-related effects on levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D are not mediated by vitamin D binding protein.

Objective  25‐hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels are inversely related to body weight, and have been reported to decline with age and be lower in women than men. We hypothesized that these findings might be explained by effects of these variables on vitamin D binding protein (DBP) levels. We set out to determine the relationships between DBP and gender, 25OHD, body weight and body composition.

Abdominal aortic calcification on vertebral morphometry images predicts incident myocardial infarction

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) measured on spine X‐rays is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether AAC assessed using vertebral morphometry and a recently developed scoring system (AAC‐8) is reliable and associated with cardiovascular risk factors or events. A total of 1471 healthy postmenopausal women and 323 healthy middle‐aged and older men participated in 5 and 2 year trials of calcium supplements, respectively. AAC‐8 was assessed on vertebral morphometry images at baseline and follow‐up. In addition, 163 men also had coronary artery calcification measured using computed tomography. Cardiovascular events during the trials were independently adjudicated. We found strong inter‐ and intrameasurer agreement for AAC‐8 (κ > 0.87). The prevalence of AAC increased with age (p < .01) in women and in men. AAC was associated with many established cardiovascular risk factors, with serum calcium in women (p = .002) and with higher coronary calcium scores in men (p = .03). Estimated 5 year cardiovascular risk increased with increasing AAC‐8 score (p < .001) in women and in men. The presence of AAC independently predicted myocardial infarction (MI) in women [hazards ratio (HR) = 2.30, p = .007] and men (HR = 5.32, p = .04), even after adjustment for estimated cardiovascular risk in women. In women, AAC independently predicted cardiovascular events (MI, stroke, or sudden death) (HR = 1.74, p = .007), and changes in AAC‐8 score over time were associated with MI and cardiovascular events, even after adjustment for estimated cardiovascular risk. In summary, scoring AAC on vertebral morphometric scans is a reproducible method of assessing cardiovascular risk that independently predicts incident MI and cardiovascular events, even after taking into account traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Does delay in diagnosis of breast cancer affect survival

Summary1675 breast cancer patients in the Auckland regional area have been divided into two major groups according to delay in diagnosis greater or less than six weeks. Overall there is no difference in survival although the variables tumour size, skin attachment, and nipple retraction are more common in the group with longer delay, and grade III tumours in those with short delay. Three important prognostic variables (the presence of tumour steroid receptors, positive axillary nodes, and distant metastases at diagnosis) are equally distributed and have a similar effect on survival within the two delay groups. However, in a subgroup of women with negative axillary nodes, short delay is associated with poorer survival, independent of tumour size. More tumours with grade III histology and a negative progesterone receptor status are found in this subgroup. Thus, short delay may constitute a new prognostic variable of some importance when in association with negative axillary nodes.

Seasonal variation in the secretion of mammotrophic hormones in normal women and women with previous breast cancer.

Hormones such as melatonin whose serum concentrations vary seasonally have been previously implicated in the growth of breast cancer. The present study was undertaken to identify possible seasonal variation in a range of mammotrophic hormones which could exert a chronobiologic influence in women with breast tumours. Fifteen premenopausal women with a history of previous breast cancer (BC subjects) and 10 control women underwent 2-hourly serum sampling for 24 h at both summer and winter solstice for measurement of melatonin, growth hormone (GH), insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), cortisol, prolactin and thyrotrophin (TSH). Hormone secretion at the different seasons was compared by measuring the area under the 24 h serum hormone concentration × time curves and by time series analysis of summer-to-winter differences in hormone concentration. Control women had significantly higher GH and IGF-I levels in summer compared to winter and significantly higher cortisol secretion in winter than summer. In contrast, BC women had no significant seasonal difference in IGF-I concentrations and had a reversal of the normal seasonal pattern of melatonin secretion, although seasonal changes in GH production were similar to controls. Prolactin and TSH showed no significant summer/winter variation in either group. Thus, seasonal variations in hormone secretion seen in normal women were, with exception of GH, absent or reversed in women with a previous history of breast cancer. As a result these individuals may be exposed to an asynchronous hormonal stimulus which could influence tumour growth. These changes could reflect a constitutional abnormality in BC women or may have been induced by the previous breast tumour.

Influence of height, weight, and obesity on breast cancer incidence and recurrence in Auckland, New Zealand

SummaryThe relationship between obesity and breast cancer has been investigated in 1281 Auckland breast cancer patients. Using a definition of obesity as a Body Mass Index (BMI) of ≥ 28 kg/m2, 179 (14%) breast cancer patients were classified as obese. The heights, weights, and BMI of 822 breast cancer patients aged 35–64 compared to 518 randomly selected Auckland women of similar age showed no significant difference. Within the breast cancer patients, there was no variation in nodal status or estrogen and progesterone receptor status between obese and non-obese women. However, tumours > 5 cm occurred significantly more often in obese patients. Time to recurrence was reduced in obese women with tumours ≤ 5 cm, no tumour in the axillary nodes, positive estrogen or progesterone receptor, and without metastases at the time of presentation of the disease. Although obesity has not been shown to influence breast cancer incidence, an effect on tumour recurrence is seen in patients with less advanced disease. This is similar to other reports which suggest that obesity is a weak but positive risk factor for recurrence.