Barbara M. Roberts

Entry and Exit in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland

The purpose of this paper is to examine the industrialentry and exit in a transitioneconomy, over the interval of change from a predominatelystate-owned productivesystem. The data set employed offers a near-exhaustivecoverage of manufacturingfirms in Poland. The paper estimates entry and exit equationsacross 152 3-digitindustries, using an adaptation of an Orr–Shapiro/Khemani-typemodel to allow for thespecial circumstances of a transition economy. Theresults suggest that, despite theturbulence of the immediate post-transition period,the patterns of entry and exitbehaviour in Poland correspond closely to thoseobserved in more mature marketeconomies.

Calibration procedure and the robustness of CGE models: Simulations with a model for Poland

Calibration is commonly used in order to specify a numerical computable general equilibrium model. As it involves the evaluation of model parameters on the basis of a single observation, there is a concern about the reliability of the results obtained from the model. A one-sector model for the Polish economy is specified and calibrated using various years as a benchmark equilibrium. Different assumptions are also made about some elasticity parameters. The model response is examined by simulating an increase in government expenditure. The results are quite robust to the choice of the base year but very sensitive to some elasticity parameters such as trade substitution elasticities.

Privatizations Around the World: Economic or Political Determinants?

The article examines economic, political, and institutional determinants of privatization using a panel of 50 countries over the period of 1988–2006. Our sample includes developed, developing, and transition economies. Privatization activity is measured by the number of privatization deals as well as the revenue raised and analyzed using the negative binomial regression and Tobit regression respectively. Although more privatization activity is usually taking place in countries displaying satisfactory economic performance in some respect, the role of economic factors turns out to be limited. The results identify a number of political and institutional determinants but some effects are specific to a particular type of economy. For example, in developing countries, right‐wing governments are associated with privatizations while new, not necessarily right‐wing governments, are behind privatization in Eastern Europe. The role of financial development is also varied, with sound financial institutions related to successful privatization in developed and developing countries but not in transition economies.

Privatisation in Poland: What Was the Government Trying to Achieve?

This article uses the sequencing of privatization to infer the objective pursued by the Polish government in the privatization of its large manufacturing firms in the second half of the 1990s. We construct a model of mixed oligopoly and use it to evaluate the privatization process; our analysis is based on the assumption that firms which furthered the governments objective function the most would be chosen to be privatized first. Based on the features of the firms that were chosen for early privatization, our empirical analysis suggests that welfare maximization was more important than the desire to maximize the revenues from privatization and the governments budget or to minimize employment losses.

Source Country Characteristics and the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment into Saudi Arabia

The paper examines the impact of source country characteristics on the inflow of FDI into Saudi Arabia using a gravity-type model including economic, distance and socio-political variables. A unique database listing all new investments involving foreign ownership is used to construct a panel of 33 countries in the period 1980–2005. To account for many country–year observations with zero FDI, the negative binomial regression, the Tobit regression and the Heckman selection procedure are used. The conclusions drawn from the analysis employing panel-based techniques differ from the results obtained from pooled regression models. Also, the determinants of FDI differ depending on whether foreign investment is measured in terms of investment expenditure or the number of individual foreign projects. The Heckman selection results reveal that there are a large number of factors affecting the decision to invest in Saudi Arabia, compared with relatively few determinants of the actual size of investment. Traditional size and distance characteristics hold to a great extent but the relationship between FDI and bilateral trade is unclear and there is some evidence that the countries that export to Saudi Arabia do not invest there. In terms of scope for possible spillovers, there is mixed evidence on whether the investment comes from more technologically advanced economies but volume-wise important investments originate from countries characterised by high income per capita.

Structural Change in Poland, 1980–90: Evidence from Social Accounting Multipliers and Linkage Analysis

The 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s have witnessed a period of economic reforms in Poland. The paper uses aggregated social accounting multipliers to assess whether any structural change at a macro-economic level has taken place in this period. Linkage analysis is adopted to evaluate intersectoral reallocation of resources. The results support the view that some macro-economic adjustment has taken place but they do not provide evidence of significant intersectoral shifts.

Modelling income distribution in countries in transition: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland

Abstract The paper designs an analytical framework suitable for modelling distributional issues of transition in Eastern Europe. It involves a computable general equilibrium model, with a social accounting matrix (SAM) serving as a database. The model is disaggregated with respect to production activities, factors of production and households. In particular, the household sector is disaggregated by socioeconomic groups, distinguished by their source of income. The data for Poland in 1990 have been used to calibrate the model. The distributional consequences of a decline in output and of privatization are examined in simulation experiments.

Firm turnover, restructuring and labour productivity in transition: the case of Poland

This article explores the impact of turnover and restructuring on labour productivity in the Polish economy over the period 1988 to 1993. Changes in aggregate productivity are decomposed into elements corresponding to productivity growth among survivors, market share growth by survivors and the contributions of entering and exiting firms. The traditional entry and exit effects begin to work as transition to a market economy progresses. However, initial productivity improvements are due to changes in market shares of the existing firms following the break-up of large enterprises. Regression analysis shows that changes in the firm-level productivity are affected by restructuring and a more competitive economic environment.

Structural Features of Economic Reform in Poland

This paper examines current macroeconomic evidence on the characteristics and magnitude of structural change in Poland during the reform era. The analysis is based on a comparison of two social accounting matrices (SAMs) compiled for 1987 and 1993, three years either side of the introduction of the main reform program. The results show Poland has shifted towards the characteristics expected of a market economy. A multiplier analysis shows there are significant system-wide linkages, and that while the magnitude of some linkages has been resilient to change others have changed markedly, including a substantial growth in the entrepreneurial household sector. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Privatization and Performance in Eastern Europe: Alternative Scenarios

The paper focuses on the possible outcomes of privatization and considers how different scenarios of privatization lead to varied macroeconomic performance. Alternative scenarios involve changes in efficiency, taxation, wages, income distribution and interactions with the world economy. The consequences of pursuing different scenarios of privatization are simulated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Illustrative simulations with the model are carried out for a representative economy, intended to depict a country at the outset of transition. The simulation results suggest that privatization can exert a favourable or adverse impact on the whole economy, depending on the way in which the performance of the newly privatized sector changes. The simulation analysis for Poland shows that some developments accompanying privatization processes might have contributed to recession and budget deficit.