Barbara Praetorius

The effects of environmental fiscal reform in Germany: a simulation study

This paper presents the first comprehensive, model-based impact analysis of the German environmental fiscal reform, addressing the effects on CO2 emissions, economic growth, employment, and personal income distribution. Both an econometric input–output model and a dynamic computable general equilibrium model are applied in order to enhance the credibility of our results. The macroeconomic results are linked with a micro-simulation model of the household sector, so that detailed household data can be used to determine the effect of the environmental fiscal reform on personal income distribution. We find a small ‘double dividend’ in that energy consumption and CO2 emissions decrease while employment rises. The impact on economic growth is found to be minimal. The fear that the environmental fiscal reform might interfere with the goals of social and income-distribution policy is found to be largely unjustified.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in a Carbon Constrained World: The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage

In a carbon constrained world, at least four classes of greenhouse gas mitigation options are available: Energy efficiency, fuel switching, introduction of carbon dioxide capture and storage along with renewable generating technologies, and reductions in emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The role of energy technologies is considered crucial in climate change mitigation. In particular, carbon capture and storage (CCS) promises to allow for low-emissions fossil-fuel based power generation. The technology is under development; a number of technological, economic, environmental and safety issues remain to be solved. With regard to its sustainability impact, CCS raises a number of questions: On the one hand, CCS may prolong the prevailing coal-to-electricity regime and countervail efforts in other mitigation categories. On the other hand, given the indisputable need to continue using fossil fuels for some time, it may serve as a bridging technology towards a sustainable energy future. In this paper, we discuss the relevant issues for the case of Germany. We provide a survey of the current state of the art of CCS and activities, and perform an energy-environment-economic analysis using a general equilibrium model for Germany. The model analyzes the impact of introducing carbon constraints with respect to the deployment of CCS, to the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, to the energy and technology mix and with respect to interaction of different mitigation efforts. The results show the relative importance of the components in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. For example, under the assumption of a CO2 policy, both energy efficiency and CCS will contribute to climate gas mitigation. A given climate target can be achieved at lower marginal costs when the option of CCS is included. We conclude that, given an appropriate legal and policy framework, CCS, energy efficiency and some other mitigation efforts are complementary measures and should form part of a broad mix of measures required for a successful CO2 mitigation strategy.

Technological innovation systems for microgeneration in the UK and Germany - a functional analysis

This paper examines the deployment of microgeneration in Germany and the UK from a technological innovation systems (TIS) perspective. Based on the TIS functions approach, we condense supportive and obstructive factors and discuss the differences in the respective national setting for small-scale renewable and combined heat and power (CHP) technologies. The findings underline the relevance of legitimation and of institutional and financial support. High degrees of legitimacy were achieved in both the UK and Germany. In Germany, early institutional and financial support reduced uncertainty for new market entrants and consumers, and fuelled a self-reinforcing diffusion dynamic for small renewables. In the UK, by comparison, microgeneration enjoys little support. The paper concludes that distributed generation will not be successful without a more focussed and technology-oriented innovation policy.

Carbon capture and storage: settling the German coal vs. climate change dispute?

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an innovation that promises to enable the low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions coal power station. However, the technology is still under development and issues such as economic viability, environmental safety, public acceptance and system integration remain unresolved at present. We analyse the viewpoints and strategies of major political and economic actors towards CCS and the future of coal in the German electricity system. We portray the actor constellation and try to determine the potential changes caused by CCS. We argue that, since CCS is still an emerging technology, viewpoints and strategies are characterised by many uncertainties at the moment. Actors are still trying to learn about CCS and are still forming their opinions. This opens up space for dialogue and moderates confrontation. A possible policy option that may result is the use of coal with CCS as a bridging technology towards a sustainable or even fully renewable energy future.

German industry's voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions — No substitute for an active policy against climate change

ConclusionOn the basis of current studies it can be concluded that the offers made by sections of German industry promise no more than can anyway be expected due to the trend decline in specific energy consumption. Moreover, it must be borne in mind that it is only the energy-intensive sectors that have made such a commitment. Voluntary commitments limited to a small number of branches cannot substitute for the broad-based climate-protection concepts put forward by the Enquête Commission set up by the German Bundestag. If the Federal Government is concerned about its environmental credibility it should not refrain from pursuing an active policy to counter climate change.

Microgeneration in the UK and Germany from a Technological Innovation Systems Perspective

Microgeneration, the production of electricity at the level of individual buildings or small local communities, has recently enjoyed increasing attention from politicians and energy analysts. A more decentralized or distributed electricity generation system could contribute to a transition towards a more sustainable energy system. Compared to the traditional electricity system based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy, microgeneration can in many circumstances reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions when it replaces fossil fuels by renewable fuels, and also by increasing total efficiency through the combined generation of heat and power in small cogeneration units. In addition, generation of power close to the point of use could reduce power transport over long distances and thereby increase the overall efficiency of the electricity system and reliability of power supply. Finally, microgeneration can increase consumers’ choice about their energy provision and potentially improve overall competition (Pehnt et al. 2006).

Dezentrale Erzeugung, Wettbewerb und intelligente Netze im integrierten Strommarktmodell des VKU

Mit zunehmendem Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien wird das System der Stromversorgung immer komplexer und die Organisation von Versorgungssicherheit technisch und wirtschaftlich aufwandiger. Das Optimierungsproblem der simultanen Abstimmung von Angebot und Nachfrage im gegenwartigen Marktdesign ist in der mittleren Frist ein Risiko fur die Versorgungssicherheit, da Investitionen in Versorgungssicherheit ausreichende Planungsvorlaufe und Planungssicherheit voraussetzen. Das betrifft die Bereitstellung sowohl von verlasslichen Stromerzeugungskapazitaten als auch von angepassten Netzstrukturen. Derzeit wird erortert, mit welchem Marktdesign eine effiziente Losung des Optimierungsproblems ermoglicht werden kann. Effizienz setzt dabei sowohl wettbewerbliche Strukturen als auch den Einsatz von intelligenten Regelungstechniken voraus, denn die Informations- und Kommunikationstechniken sind heute so weit entwickelt, dass eine Echtzeitregelung moglich ist. Allerdings mussen fur effiziente marktwirtschaftliche Innovationsanreize die Aufgaben der Akteure neu definiert und das Regelwerk fur die verschiedenen Wertschopfungsstufen und deren Schnittstellen an die Herausforderungen der starker dezentralen und fluktuierenden Stromeinspeisung angepasst werden. Der Beitrag fasst die Ergebnisse eines Gutachtens im Auftrag des Verbands kommunaler Unternehmen (VKU) zusammen, das ein integriertes dezentrales Strommarktdesign als Losungsoption vorschlagt.

Methoden und Grenzen der modellgestützten Analyse wirtschaftspolitischer Strategien

Zur Analyse wirtschaftspolitischer Masnahmen werden haufig computergestutzte Modelle eingesetzt. Modelle sind ein vereinfachtes Abbild der Volkswirtschaft, das ein „ahnliches Verhalten“ aufweist wie das Originalsystem. Durch Experimente mit dem Modell werden dann Ruckschlusse auf die Reaktion der Volkswirtschaft auf veranderte Rahmenbedingungen gezogen. Computergestutzte Modelle erlauben, grose Datenmengen zu verarbeiten und komplexe Systeme zu analysieren. Sie verbessern so das Verstandnis fur die quantitativen Zusammenhange in der Volkswirtschaft.

Vergleich der Ergebnisse und Beurteilung der ökologischen Steuerreform

Modellanalysen zu den potentiellen Wirkungen einer okologischen Steuerreform fur Deutschland haben zu sehr unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen gefuhrt.68 Dies liegt zum Teil daran, dass verschiedene Szenarien einer okologischen Steuerreform untersucht wurden. Aber auch wenn gleiche Szenarien zugrunde gelegt wurden, sind teilweise erhebliche qualitative und quantitative Unterschiede aufgetreten.69 Im Rahmen dieser Untersuchung wurden daher zwei gesamtwirtschaftliche Modelle eingesetzt, die unterschiedlichen Modellklassen angehoren, um zu prufen, inwiefern die Ergebnisse von dem gewahlten Modelltyp abhangen. Fur die Ermittlung der personellen Verteilungseffekte wurde ein drittes Modell eingesetzt, das fur derartige Berechnungen besonders geeignet ist.

Ökologische Steuerreform und wirtschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen

Die Analyse der okologischen Steuerreform erfolgt mit Hilfe der Szenariotechnik, indem einem Referenzszenario ein Steuerszenario gegenubergestellt wird. Die Annahmen, die in diese beiden Szenarien einfliesen, sind weitgehend deckungsgleich, mit Ausnahme der Komponenten, die im Steuerszenario die okologische Steuerreform reprasentieren.