Barney Foran

International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations.

Human activities are causing Earth’s sixth major extinction event—an accelerating decline of the world’s stocks of biological diversity at rates 100 to 1,000 times pre-human levels. Historically, low-impact intrusion into species habitats arose from local demands for food, fuel and living space. However, in today’s increasingly globalized economy, international trade chains accelerate habitat degradation far removed from the place of consumption. Although adverse effects of economic prosperity and economic inequality have been confirmed, the importance of international trade as a driver of threats to species is poorly understood. Here we show that a significant number of species are threatened as a result of international trade along complex routes, and that, in particular, consumers in developed countries cause threats to species through their demand of commodities that are ultimately produced in developing countries. We linked 25,000 Animalia species threat records from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List to more than 15,000 commodities produced in 187 countries and evaluated more than 5 billion supply chains in terms of their biodiversity impacts. Excluding invasive species, we found that 30% of global species threats are due to international trade. In many developed countries, the consumption of imported coffee, tea, sugar, textiles, fish and other manufactured items causes a biodiversity footprint that is larger abroad than at home. Our results emphasize the importance of examining biodiversity loss as a global systemic phenomenon, instead of looking at the degrading or polluting producers in isolation. We anticipate that our findings will facilitate better regulation, sustainable supply-chain certification and consumer product labelling.

Risk, Biology and Drought Management Strategies for Cattle Stations in Central Australia

A simulation study was conducted to explore the effects of drought on financial returns for three different grazing strategies for arid zone beef cattle properties in central Australia. RANGEPACK Herd-Econ, a commercially available herd and property economic model was used to compare the strategies in all possible 10-year sequences of good, average and dry years, to examine the effect of drought period on post drought recovery, and to run the strategies through a historical sequence based on the last 100 years of rainfall data. The management strategies, based on real properties corrected to the same resource base, compared an “average” 3000 AU † property, a “low-stock” 2000 AU property with high and resilient herd biological rates and a “high-stock” 4000 AU property which manages drought conditions by quick destocking tactics. For the full probability distribution of all possible 10-year sequences, the mean accumulated cash surpluses were £1·98m., £2·28m. and £1·34 m. for the average, high-stock and low-stock management strategies respectively. Both average and high-stock had highly variable financial returns whereas low-stock maintained relatively constant levels. Both average and high-stock recovered quickly from 1-year droughts, but low-stock started to have higher annual returns when droughts lasted 2 years or longer. In the examination of the last 100 years, both average and high-stock would have been bankrupted on todays costs in the 1956–1965 decade, whereas low-stock would have survived with only a small deficit. The mean 10-year accumulated cash surpluses for the 10 historical decades were £1·79m., £2·1m. and £1·28 m. for the average, high-stock and low-stock strategies. This compares well with the results of the full probability distribution. Taxation rates and interest costs can interact to modify the results of this study. Normal rates of taxation and interest applied to the yearly cash surpluses tend to favour the low-stock strategy and its constant moderate cash flows. However, if business management can reduce taxation rates, and attract government support in dry years, then there are income advantages for both the average and the high-stock strategies. All stocking strategies were assumed to be sustainable. In real life, low-stock continues to improve its rangeland resource while high-stock and average are relatively stable, both with some scrub encroachment due to lack of prescribed fire. The average strategy has probably the greatest risk of environmental degradation because of its “wait and see” attitude to drought management.

An approach to assessing the economic risk of different drought management tactics on a South Australian pastoral sheep station

Abstract The economic effects of alternative destocking tactics in the face of drought for a sheep enterprise on semi-arid rangelands in South Australia were investigated. Tactics of taking no special action and of destocking the propertys 14 600 sheep by 20% and 40% as soon as seasonal rains fail were considered. By examining all possible 10-year sequences of good, average or drought years, a tactic of substantial destocking was shown to have a better long-term expected economic return, with less variance, than a policy of hopeful inaction. A more detailed examination of drought sequences showed that at least 20% immediate destocking is sensible if the drought lasts only 1 year but that 40% is sensible if the drought lasts longer; given that the first year of drought can be recognised by the end of the winter growing season, 40% destocking is economically worthwhile overall (regardless of ecological implications). A sensitivity analysis showed that, although the economic returns were sensitive to market prices for wool and for the animals sold during drought, the general result remained valid over a very wide range of market conditions for the property considered. On the basis of todays prices and costs, a policy of substantial immediate destocking in drought would also have been best in almost all of the decades of real weather records from 1885 to 1985, and is likely to become increasingly appropriate with forecast climatic change.

A Material History of Australia

Summary This article presents an analysis of the material history of Australia in the period 1975–2005. The values of economy-wide indicators of material flow roughly trebled since 1975, and we identify the drivers of this change through structural decomposition analysis. The purpose of this work is to delve beneath the top-level trends in material flow growth to investigate the structural changes in the economy that have been driving this growth. The major positive drivers of this change were the level of exports, export mix, industrial structure, affluence, and population. Only improvements in material intensity offered retardation of growth in material flow. Other structural components had only small effects at the aggregate level. At a more detailed level, however, the importance of the mineral sectors became apparent. Improvements in mining techniques have reduced material requirements, but increased consumption within the economy and increased exports have offset these reductions. The full roll out of material flow accounting through Australian society and business and a systematic response to its implications will require change in the national growth focus of the last two generations, with serious consideration needed to reverse the current volume-focused growth of the economy and also to recast neoliberal and globalized trade policies that have dominated the globe for the past decades.

A Material History of Australia Evolution of Material Intensity and Drivers of Change

Summary This article presents an analysis of the material history of Australia in the period 1975–2005. The values of economy-wide indicators of material flow roughly trebled since 1975, and we identify the drivers of this change through structural decomposition analysis. The purpose of this work is to delve beneath the top-level trends in material flow growth to investigate the structural changes in the economy that have been driving this growth. The major positive drivers of this change were the level of exports, export mix, industrial structure, affluence, and population. Only improvements in material intensity offered retardation of growth in material flow. Other structural components had only small effects at the aggregate level. At a more detailed level, however, the importance of the mineral sectors became apparent. Improvements in mining techniques have reduced material requirements, but increased consumption within the economy and increased exports have offset these reductions. The full roll out of material flow accounting through Australian society and business and a systematic response to its implications will require change in the national growth focus of the last two generations, with serious consideration needed to reverse the current volume-focused growth of the economy and also to recast neoliberal and globalized trade policies that have dominated the globe for the past decades.

Direct versus Embodied Energy – The Need for Urban Lifestyle Transitions

Publisher Summary As people flock to the cities in search of opportunities, and societies become more urbanized, they also become more affluent, and their energy systems more efficient. At the same time the demands of people for material wealth, comfort and convenience increase rapidly, causing the increase of industrial energy demand, which in turn often outstrips all energy efficiency gains. Most of the energy resources consumed today are non-renewable–hence there is the obvious problem of their depletion, among other problems of environmental pollution and climate change. The consumption of residential and transport energy is called direct energy consumption. The energy that is needed throughout the entire life cycle of a final consumer item—good or service—starting with the transformation of raw materials and ending with its final disposal is often called the energy embodied in the consumer item. Most of the worlds energy is consumed in OECD North America, followed by East Asia and OECD Europe. Looking at overall energy use from a consumers perspective, it becomes clear that in high income countries the energy embodied in consumer items significantly exceeds direct energy. In these affluent, urbanized societies, direct energy is less important than embodied energy. More so, the latter has been increasing so strongly that it appears that measures have to be effective if technology transitions are complemented by far-reaching lifestyle transitions.

A tool for strategic biophysical assessment of a national economy - The Australian stocks and flows framework

The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) was developed to assess the biophysical longevity of the Australian economy, with top-down coverage of the whole physical economy based on bottom-up process-based detail. The ASFF employs mass-balance identities associated with stock and flow dynamics throughout the national economy and associated interaction with the environment. We show that the ASFF shares common features with complementary approaches, including Mass Flow Analysis, Physical Input-Output Tables, and Life Cycle Analysis, but is distinctly different from these because the biophysical processes throughout the economy and environment are represented explicitly. The detailed physical processes modelled have a strong empirical basis, being calibrated with six or more decades of historical data. Given the coverage of the entire economy in physical terms, it provides for many subject specific analyses such as water, energy, climate change, etc, which can also be assessed in integrated analysis of scenarios to 2100 in order to highlight conflicts, trade-offs, and synergies. The ASFF can be applied and adapted to represent specific interests in more detail and context, as demonstrated by multiple applications of the ASFF. Overall, it is designed to explore the possible trajectories of the national economic system over the long term within irrefutable biophysical constraints, and thereby inform development of appropriate policy. The open biophysical nature of the ASFF is intended for exploration and learning, rather than being normative or policy prescriptive.

A comparison of development options on a Northern Australian beef property

Abstract A comparison of eight improved management technologies was made for a typical Northern Australian beef cattle property carrying about 3000 breeding cows located in the Katherine district of the Northern Territory. RANGEPACK HerdEcon, a computer package which links a dynamic herd model with farm enterprise costs, was used to progressively implement various property development strategies. These included combinations of cow and steer supplementation, and pasture improvement with Stylosanthes spp. Over a 20-year period the predicted accumulated cash surplus for the superior cow herd supplementation, cow and steer herd supplementation, and pasture improvement options were

Modelling Interactions Between Economic Activity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Biodiversity and Agricultural Production

0·66m,

Energy requirements of Sydney households

1·12m and