Barry E. Jones

A Comparison Of Two Methods For Testing The Utility Maximization Hypothesis When Quantity Data Are Measured With Error

The Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP) can be violated because of random measurement errors in the observed quantity data. We study two tests proposed by Varian (1985) and de Peretti (2004), which test GARP within an explicit stochastic framework. Both tests compute adjusted quantity data that are compliant with GARP. We compare and contrast the two tests in theoretical terms and in an empirical application. The empirical application is based on testing a large group of monetary assets for the United States over multiple sample periods spanning 1960-1992. We found that both tests provided reasonable results and were largely consistent with each other.

Introduction to the St. Louis Monetary Services Index Project

Professor William A. Barnett, Washington University in St. Louis, for his generous and invaluable guidance during this project. We also thank Professors W. Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia, and Adrian R. Fleissig, St. Louis University, for advice and comments. For assistance with data, we thank the Savings Bond Operations Office of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Division of Monetary Affairs of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Nonlinear Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy

This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series. We propose a multivariate regime switching unobserved components model to obtain transitory and permanent components for each series, allowing for potential recurrent and structural changes in their dynamics. Each component follows distinct two-state Markov processes representing low or high phases. Since the lead-lag relationship between the phases can vary over time, rather than pre-imposing a structure to their linkages, the proposed flexible framework enables us to study their specific lead-lag relationship over each one of their cycles and over each U.S. recession in the last 40 years. The decomposition of the series into permanent and transitory components reveals striking results. First, we find a strong nonlinear association between the components of money and prices-all low phases of the transitory component of prices were preceded by tight transitory and permanent money phases. We also find that most recessions were preceded by tight money phases (its cyclical and permanent components) and high transitory price phases (with the exception of the 2001 and 2009-2010 recessions). In addition, all recessions were associated with a decrease in transitory and permanent income.

WELFARE COST OF INFLATION IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH CURRENCY AND INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS

We generalize a money-in-the-utility function model to include interest-bearing deposits and use the model to estimate the welfare cost of inflation. In the model, the user cost of deposits is invariant to inflation in steady state. Currency and deposits are assumed to be weakly separable and the model is calibrated using index number methods. We find that the welfare cost of inflation is substantially lower in the model with interest-bearing deposits than in models where all monetary assets are assumed to be non-interest bearing. We also show that higher inflation can raise or lower the rate of convergence to steady state depending on the coefficient of relative risk aversion, but the effect is weak. We provide evidence for OECD countries suggesting that there could be a positive effect of inflation on user costs, which would lead to higher welfare cost estimates.

Does Money Matter in the IS Curve? The Case of the UK

Narrow and broad money measures (including Divisia aggregates) have been found to have explanatory power for UK output in backward-looking specifications of the IS curve. In this paper, we explore whether or not real balances enter into a forward-looking IS curve for the UK. To do this, we test for additive separability between consumption and money over a sizeable part of the post-Exchange Rate Mechanism period using non-parametric methods. A main finding is that the UK data seem to be broadly consistent with additive separability for the more recent period from 1999 to 2007.

A Note On The Optimal Level Of Monetary Aggregation In The United Kingdom

Weak separability is a key admissibility property in the Divisia approach to monetary aggregation. We test groups of U.K. household sector monetary assets for weak separability using new data underlying the Bank of Englands benchmark revision of its household sector Divisia index. Nonparametric tests are used to identify four monetary asset groupings, which are weakly separable over all or almost all of the post-ERM period (1992:4-2005:1). We construct Divisia monetary aggregates for these four groupings and investigate their information content in two applications. The main findings are that Divisia money has direct effects on aggregate demand and that the growth rates of the nominal Divisia monetary aggregates Granger cause nominal output growth, but not inflation. (Less)

Household-Sector Money Demand for the UK

We test for the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for the UK involving household-sector Divisia and simple sum monetary indexes for the period from 1977 to 2008. We construct our Divisia index using non-break-adjusted levels and break-adjusted flows following the Bank of England. We test for cointegration between the real Divisia and simple sum indexes, their corresponding opportunity cost measures, real income and real share prices. Our results support the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for both the Divisia and simple sum indexes.

Testing Utility Maximization with Measurement Errors in the Data

Revealed preference axioms provide a simple way of testing data from consumers or firms for consistency with optimizing behavior. The resulting non-parametric tests are very attractive, since they do not require any ad hoc functional form assumptions. A weakness of such tests, however, is that they are non-stochastic. In this paper, we provide a detailed analysis of two non-parametric approaches that can be used to derive statistical tests for utility maximization, which account for random measurement errors in the observed data. These same approaches can also be used to derive tests for separability of the utility function.

Linear Cointegration of Nonlinear Time Series with an Application to Interest Rate Dynamics

We derive a definition of linear cointegration for nonlinear stochastic processes using a martingale representation theorem. The result shows that stationary linear cointegrations can exhibit nonlinear dynamics, in contrast with the normal assumption of linearity. We propose a sequential nonparametric method to test first for cointegration and second for nonlinear dynamics in the cointegrated system. We apply this method to weekly US interest rates constructed using a multirate filter rather than averaging. The Treasury Bill, Commerical Paper and Federal Funds rates are cointegrated, with two cointegrating vectors. Both cointegrations behave nonlinearly. Consequently, linear models will not fully relicate the dynanics of monetary policy transmission.

Non-Parametric Tests of the Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Separability

We survey the current state of the art in the use of nonparametric methods to test separability. We focus on three tests: Swofford and Whitney’s (1994) joint test of the necessary and sufficient conditions for weak separability; Fleissig and Whitney’s (2003) sequential test of those conditions; and Jones and Stracca’s (2006) test of the necessary and sufficient conditions for additive separability. We illustrate the latter two tests by applying them to data generated from Barnett and Choi’s (1989) WS-branch model. The empirical results show that these two tests are able to correctly identify separable structure in nearly all