Barry Edmonston

Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections

This paper proposes a new model for population projections. This model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohort-component models), but considers the population arrayed by generation. The model incorporates 4 generations: a foreign-born first generation (the immigrants), a second generation (sons and daughters of immigrants), a third generation (grandsons and granddaughters of immigrants), and fourth-and-higher generations. The model requires fertility, mortality, and migration equations by generation, which take a somewhat different form than in conventional cohort-component population projection. Consideration of the model also makes apparent that assignment of births to generations may not follow a simple form: the paper presents a method for including the empirical description of intergenerational births within the generational framework. As an example, the authors examine the next century of population growth for the Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic populations in the US, comparing their growth rates and their composition within the total US population. With annual net immigration of 950,000, the total US population of 249 million in 1990 will top 400 million in 2070 and reach about 432 million in 2090. Thus, the level of immigration and emigration assumed in these projections suggests considerable population growth for the next hundred years. The racial/ethnic composition of the US will shift markedly during the next century, as described in the paper.

Age-at-Arrival's Effects on Asian Immigrants' Socioeconomic Outcomes in Canada and the U.S.

Age-at-arrival is a key predictor of many immigrant outcomes, but discussion continues over how to best measure and study its effects. This research replicates and extends a pioneering study by Myers, Gao, and Emeka [International Migration Review (2009) 43:205–229] on age-at-arrival effects among Mexican immigrants in the U.S. to see if similar results hold for other immigrant groups and in other countries. We examine data from the 2000 U.S. census and 2006 American Community Survey, and 1991, 2001, and 2006 Canadian censuses to assess several measures of age-at-arrival effects on Asian immigrants’ socioeconomic outcomes. We confirm several of Myers et al.s key findings, including the absence of clear breakpoints in age-at-arrival effects for all outcomes and the superiority of continuous measures of age-at-arrival. Additional analysis reveals different age-at-arrival effects by gender and Asian ethnicity. We suggest guidelines, supplementing those offered by Myers et al., for measuring and studying age-at-arrivals effects on immigrant outcomes.

Canadian as National Ethnic Origin: Trends and Implications

This paper examines the emergence of “Canadian” as a national ethnic origin by conducting: (i) a trend analysis on identifying as “Canadian” using microdata from the 1991, 1996, and 2001 Censuses of Canada; and (ii) descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine characteristics associated with identifying as “Canadian.” The trend analysis reveals large and statistically significant increases in identification as “Canadian.” Several factors, including birth in Canada, French language background, Quebec residence, lower education, younger age, and non-metropolitan residence are associated with identifying as “Canadian.” Estimating logistic regression models for three language groups—Anglophones, Francophones, and English and French bilinguals—for each census show similar (e.g., education, age) and different (e.g., religion, province) effects of explanatory variables for language groups and over time, and also confirm the important role of a French language background. By 2001, for example, Francophones were more than three times as likely as Anglophones to identify as “Canadian.” We discuss possible explanations for the findings, including “Canadian” ethnic identification as a reaction to increased immigration and different meanings of “Canadian” ethnicity for Anglophones and Francophones; several areas for future research; and implications of new national ethnic identities such as “Canadian” for studying ethnicity. Cet article porte sur l’émergence du terme « canadien » au sens d’origine ethnique nationale en menant : 1) une analyse de la tendance à s’identifier comme « canadien » à partir des micro-données fournies par les recensements du Canada de 1992, 1996 et 2001 et 2) des analyses descriptives à plusieurs variables pour étudier les caractéristiques de cette appartenance. L’analyse de la tendance révèle une augmentation importante et statistiquement significative du fait de s’identifier comme « canadien ». Plusieurs facteurs, dont le fait d’être né au Canada, de résider au Québec, de ne pas habiter dans une métropole, et un contexte de langue française, une éducation moins avancée ou un âge plus jeune sont liés à une « canadianité » identitaire. L’estimation des modèles de régression logistique pour les trois groupes linguistiques – Anglophones, Francophones et Bilingues anglais-français – montre que les effets des variables explicatives pour les groupes de langue sont semblables (comme dans le cas de l’éducation et de l’âge) ou différents (comme dans le cas de la religion et de la province) et qu’ils évoluent d’un recensement à l’autre. Elle confirme, par ailleurs, le rôle important du contexte français. En 2001, par exemple, il est trois fois plus probable que les Francophones s’identifieront comme « canadiens » que les Anglophones. Nous examinons les explications possibles de ces résultats, y inclus une ethnicité identitaire « canadienne » en réaction à une immigration en hausse et les différences de sens d’une « canadianité » ethnique chez les Anglophones et chez les Francophones, ainsi que plusieurs champs pour la recherche à venir et les implications de nouvelles identité ethniques nationales, comme la « canadienne », pour les études sur l’ethnicité.

The Contribution of Immigration to Population Growth

The question posed by Nathan Keyfitz in 1950 continues to interest demographers (Edmonston/Michalowski, 2004). The purpose of this paper is to review demographic approaches that have been proposed for measuring the contribution of immigration to population growth. The paper also presents one approach – a historical reconstruction of Canada’s population – to illustrate a method that is useful for measuring the effect of immigration on population growth.

Fertility Intentions in Canada:Change or No Change?

This paper describes trends in fertility intentions in Canada based on an analysis of data from four national household surveys -- General Social Surveys in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2006. The study finds that the fertility intentions of Canadian women have been relatively stable for the past 16 years, moving within a narrow range of 2.11 to 2.29 children. Modest decreases due to changes in population composition – and not changes in the relationship between various explanatory variables and intended fertility – have largely been responsible for the modest overall decrease of 0.08 children in intended fertility between 1990 and 2006.

Residential Mobility of Elderly Canadians: Trends and Determinants

Une bonne compréhension des tendances et des déterminants de la mobilité résidentielle des Canadiens âgés est essentiel pour les politiques publiques et la planification. Étude des patrons, change au fil du temps, et les déterminants de la mobilité des Canadiens âgés sont devenus de plus en plus important que la population vieillit. La mobilité résidentielle des personnes âgées a diminué considérablement depuis 1971, et près de la moitié de cette baisse est due à des changements dans la composition de la population. Parce que l’analyse multivariée de ce document ne tient pas compte de la plupart des tendances à la baisse de la mobilité résidentielle, toutefois, d’autres travaux sont nécessaires sur les explications spéculatives abordés dans cet article.An understanding of trends and determinants for the residential mobility of elderly Canadians is essential for public policy and planning. Study of the patterns, changes over time, and determinants of the mobility of older Canadians has become increasingly important as the population ages. Elderly residential mobility has decreased substantially since 1971, and almost one-half of this decrease is due to changes in population composition. Because the multivariate analysis described here does not account for most of the downward trends in residential mobility, however, further work is needed on speculative explanations discussed in this article.

Lifecourse perspectives on immigration

The lifecourse perspective examines individual life histories in order to understand how prior events, social and economic conditions, and individual characteristics influence decisions and events over time. The lifecourse approach emphasizes the connection between individuals and the historical context in which their lives take place. This approach has its origins in Thomas and Znaniecki’s pioneering studies (1918–1920) of the migration and adaptation of Polish peasants in Europe and the United States (Thomas and Znaniecki 1958). Their work examined how the lives of Polish peasants changed over time within social, economic, and cultural contexts. In recent years, the lifecourse perspective has been used to study how events earlier in life—such as schooling or teenage experiences—affect later decisions and events, such as childbearing, marriage and divorce, and retirement. In early studies in the 1930s and 1940s, longitudinal studies of individuals followed children or adults only for a few years. Generally, this early work was interested in the sequence of social roles, such as childhood socialization, becoming married, or transition to parenthood—a process that demographers called life cycle studies or the study of key transitions in individual lives. Studies dealing with the life cycle were particularly prominent in family demography (Glick 1988), as evidenced by the large number of publications dealing with family trends, religious and racial intermarriage, social-economic changes and family stability, changes in age at first marriage, and the prevalence of divorce in the 1950s and 1960s. Recent studies in family demography demonstrate the continued usefulness of the life cycle for studying such topics as cohabitation outside marriage, one-parent families, gender preferences in children, nofault divorce, divorce among children of divorce, and stepfamilies. Other researchers, notably at the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Human Development in the 1950s, realized that the study of single individuals oversimplified the lives of people, who were interacting with others and were entrenched in a broader historical context. As longitudinal studies developed—in ways discussed below— life cycle theory was expanded to what is now called lifecourse perspective. Although the early use of a lifecourse perspective dealt with migration, very few recent studies of migration have explicitly employed a lifecourse approach. In June 2010, the Committee on Migration and Immigration of the Population Change and Lifecourse Strategic Knowledge Cluster1 organized a workshop at the University of Montreal to explore the value of a lifecourse perspective on immigration. This workshop included ten papers that dealt with a variety of immigration topics. Six papers from that workshop have been revised for publication in this special issue of Canadian Studies in Population.

Canadian Provincial Population Growth: Fertility, Migration, and Age Structure Effects

The effect of changes in rates of mortality, fertility, and migration depend not only on the age-specific patterns and levels of these rates, but on the age structure of the population. In order to remove the influences of the age structure and concentrate on the impact of the demographic rates themselves, a common practice is to analyze the influences of the rates for a standard age structure. This paper adapts the general approach of using a standard age structure to a stationary population equivalent (SPE) model, and analyzes current population change, using the SPE model, for provinces of Canada. Below-replacement fertility levels are only partially offset by net immigration. The SPE model evidences the decrease in the eventual provincial populations brought about by the below replacement fertility. Out-migration for some provinces to other areas of Canada accentuates their eventual population decreases.

Immigrants’ Transition to Homeownership, 1991 to 2006

Using a lifecourse perspective and a double-cohort model, we analyze 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 census data to ask if immigrants are less likely to be homeowners than the Canadian-born, and whether recent immigrants are less likely to own homes than earlier immigrant cohorts. While descriptive findings suggest that immigrants, particularly recent arrivals, have lower homeownership rates than the Canadian-born, multivariate results qualify this impression. The double-cohort model with additional variables shows that immigrants’ transition to homeownership does not differ from those of the Canadian-born. Recent arrivals do begin at lower levels of homeownership, but they rapidly transition to homeownership.

Interruption of breastfeeding by child death and pregnancy

This paper estimates the mean monthly losses and proportionate interruptions of breastfeeding intervals due to child death and pregnancy. The paper uses a microanalytic model with stochastic risks for the basic processes of human reproduction. The model results show that a high proportion of women, depending upon mortality level and length of breastfeeding, have their breastfeeding interrupted by either child death or pregnancy. The results of this work suggest the need for caution in interpreting observed durations of breastfeeding. Child death and pregnancy causes bias in the reported length of breastfeeding, and this bias needs to be taken into account in statistical analysis.