Barry I. Shapiro

The role of livestock in food security and environmental protection

Per capita consumption of milk and meat products in developing Asia (including China) grew by 2.4% and 5% respectively between 1975–79 and 1990–94. This growth can be attributed to high growth rate in income and rapid urbanization. For Latin America, per capita milk and meat consumption has stagnated over the same period, perhaps because the region is already largely urbanized. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) per capita consumption of milk and meat declined by 0.2 and 0.4% over the same period because of declining real incomes. The scope for further increases in demand for livestock production as a result of income increases and urbanization is still large in the developing regions. Projections indicate likely increases in income in developing countries ranging from 3% per annum in SSA and Latin America, and to about 6% in Asia. It is projected that more than four in every ten people will live in urban centres. Projection results indicate that while the share of total meat consumption in the developed countries as a group will decrease from 53 to 36% between 1993 and 2020, in the developing world the share of total meat consumption will increase from 47% to 64% over the same period.

A strategy for technology development for semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa

This article proposes a strategy for agricultural technology development for semi-arid West Africa. The strategy evaluation consists of two aspects: a) a review of the successes in the region; and b) analysis with mathematical programming of the potential impacts and constraints to various new technologies tested in the region. The technology development strategy indicates how further productivity gains can be made by responding to the two principal constraints of water availability and soil fertility. These constraints must be simultaneously resolved but the strategy needs to be adapted for different soil characteristics and economic environments. The major emphasis is on the importance of the rapid introduction of inorganic fertilizers combined with techniques to increase water availability; organic and inorganic fertilizers need to be considered complements in the semi-arid regions. Farmers are already introducing labour intensive variations of these techniques in the most degraded regions. The policy concern is to encourage government policymakers to put a high priority on fertilizer and increase the availability of inorganic fertilizer while research efforts continue to develop improved methods for complementary use of organic fertilizer.

Policies, Institutions and Market Development to Accelerate Technological Change in the Semiarid Zones of Sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture in the African dry lands is constrained by geographical and economic isolation due to limited market access which affect adoption of new technology. International subsidies that flood developing-world markets with cheap food, national policies that tax the agricultural sector to benefit urban interests, and neglect of rural infrastructure discourage agricultural intensification. Increased market demand for staples and for higher-value products produced more efficiently will ensure that dryland farmers realize an economic gain from adopting more intensive practices. The interdependence of these key factors requires an integrated management of water soil fertility and improved crop varieties research focused on the poor, particularly women and children to ensure that they are equipped to capture most of the benefits of these changes. Low-value but essential food security crops need public sector assistance until their intensification becomes attractive to the private sector. Drought and market risks determine farmers’ decision-making in the drylands; yet it is too often assumed that new technology increases risk. Some technologies, policies and institutions can reduce risk.

Simulated weather variables effects on millet fertilized with phosphate rock in the Sahel

The Sudano–Sahelian agroecological zone is characterized by low and variable rainfall regimes and P deficiency. The present study complements previous research efforts and the objective was (i) to use the Newhall Simulation Model (NSM) to characterize three ICRISAT research sites, and (ii) to use output of NSM to develop an empirical model to guide efficient use of rainfall and fertilizers. The results show that length of the periods that rainfall exceeded evapotranspiration was larger in Bengou than in Gobery and Sadoré. Total positive moisture balance during the three growing seasons was 85.7 mm at Bengou and 19.7 mm at Sadoré. The model explained 52% of the variability in millet yields based on curvilinear response to P fertilizer, standardized May–June (Rmj) rainfall, and the number of wet days in the year (BW3). Yields appear more sensitive to BW3 than to Rmj. Their respective elasticity coefficients (Ec) were 0.62 and 0.09. Assessment of the model using R2=0.76 and the D-index = 0.85 showed reasonable agreement between model estimation and actual field yields. The study demonstrates the application of simulation models as a cost-effective means in terms of time and funds to agronomic research.