Bart Cockx

The Demand for Physician Services. Evidence from a Natural Experiment

This study exploits a natural experiment in Belgium to estimate the effect of copayment increases on the demand for physician services. It shows how a differences-in-differences (DD) estimator of the price effects can be decomposed into effects induced by the common average proportional price increase (income effects) and by the change in relative prices (substitution effects). The price elasticity of a uniform proportional price increase is relatively small (-0.13 for men and -0.03 for women). Substitution effects are large, especially for women, but imprecisely estimated. Despite the substantial price increases, the efficiency gain of the reform, if any, is modest.

The Exhaustion of Unemployment Benefits in Belgium: Does it Enhance the Probability of Employment?

In Belgium unemployment insurance benefits can only exhaust for one category of workers: partners of workers with (replacement) labour income (mostly women) may loose their entitlement after an unemployment duration ranging from two to eight years, depending on individual characteristics. We contrast three propensity score matching estimators of the impact of benefit exhaustion on the probability of employment : a standard, a before-after and an IV matching estimator. We conclude that benefit expiration is anticipated as from the moment at which the worker is notified, three months in advance, and that it gradually increases the employment rate up to 25 percentage points 14 months after benefit withdrawal.

Is There Less Discrimination in Occupations Where Recruitment Is Difficult

The authors empirically test the cross-sectional relationship between hiring discrimination and labor market tightness at the level of the occupation. To this end, they conduct a correspondence test in the youth labor market. In line with theoretical expectations, results show that, compared to natives, candidates with a foreign-sounding name are equally often invited to a job interview if they apply for occupations for which vacancies are difficult to fill; but, they have to send out twice as many applications for occupations for which labor market tightness is low. Findings are robust to various sensitivity checks.

SOCIAL EMPLOYMENT OF WELFARE RECIPIENTS IN BELGIUM: AN EVALUATION*

In Belgium, welfare agencies receive a subsidy to employ welfare recipients for a period sufficiently long to entitle them to unemployment benefits. We investigate the effect of this programme on the exit rate from welfare. We propose a grouping/IV estimator of the programme effect that eliminates selection bias. The estimator is consistent, even if the selection into the programme depends on the average unobserved characteristics of welfare recipients in a region and in a welfare duration interval. Without correction for selectivity we find that the programme reduces welfare dependence, but after correction this conclusion is reversed.

Analysis of transition data by the minimum-chi-square method: An application to welfare spells in Belgium

In this paper we analyze transition data by means of the minimum-chi-square (MCS) method instead of the more commonly used maximum-likelihood (ML) method. The analysis includes exits to multiple destinations and unmeasured heterogeneity. In the empirical application, turnover in the welfare system in Belgium is found to be very high. Median duration is 4.5 months for men and 7 months for women, although these figures overstate turnover in that exits out of welfare include those occurring as a consequence of recipients moving to another municipality while remaining on welfare.

Imperfect Monitoring of Job Search: Structural Estimation and Policy Design

We build and estimate a nonstationary structural job search model that incorporates the main stylized features of a typical job search monitoring scheme in unemployment insurance (UI) and acknowledges that search effort and requirements are measured imperfectly. On the basis of Belgian data, monitoring is found to affect search behavior only weakly because assessments were scheduled late and infrequently, the monitoring technology was not sufficiently precise, and lenient Belgian UI results in caseloads that are less responsive to incentives than elsewhere. Simulations show how changing the aforementioned design features can enhance effectiveness and that precise monitoring is key in this.

The Design of Active Labour Market Policies. What Matters and What Doesn’t?

A first objective of this paper is to emphasise the role of a correct diagnosis of unemployment persistence for the design of effective active labour market policies. A second is to stress the importance of adequate incentives for programme administrators of active labour market policies, and that this may well be more important than providing adequate incentives to the unemployed. To illustrate this, we summarise two case studies evaluating active labour market policies in Belgium. The first one evaluates a work experience programme for welfare recipients. The second one analyses the short-term effect of vocational training programmes for unemployed workers on the probability of leaving unemployment. Finally, we invite economists to think harder about well designed performance- standards systems. We provide some guidelines for this research programme.