Beata K. Bierut

The Dynamic Voting Patterns of the Bank of England's MPC

The literature on the behavior of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has focused on static voting patterns. We find statistical support for a dynamic pattern using a panel reaction function to analyze MPC votes over the 1997-2008 period. We find that internal and external members do not behave differently in their first year on the MPC. In their third year of tenure, internal members prefer higher policy rates, placing a higher weight on price stability and a lower weight on the output gap than external members.

Monetary Policy Committees: meetings and outcomes

Monetary Policy Committees differ in the way the interest rate proposal is prepared and presented in the policy meeting. In this paper we show analytically how different arrangements could affect the voting behaviour of individual MPC members and therefore policy outcomes. We then apply our results to the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. A general finding is that when MPC members are not too diverse in terms of expertise and experience, policy discussions should not be based on pre-prepared policy options. Instead, interest rate proposals should arise endogenously as a majority of views expressed by the members, as is the case at the Bank of England and appears to be the case in the FOMC under Chairman Bernanke. (

Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

We investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post. We allow for different committee sizes, various voting rules and differences in skills among committee members. We find that the size of the committee is much less important in determining the degree of interest rate inertia than the skills of committee members. Moreover, prior interaction of a subgroup only has a minor effect on the setting of interest rates by the committee, provided that members on average are equally skilled and voting takes place using a simple majority rule. If either of these assumptions are relaxed, prior interaction has substantial effects on the setting of interest rates.

The Effects of Learning in Interactive Monetary Policy Committees

We develop a theoretical framework for studying the effects of interaction on the quaJity of decision-making by monetary policy committees. We show that interaction, i.e. increasing ones expertise through an exchange of views, is most likely not to result in interdependent voting behaviour.Therefore, and in contrast to earlier literature, we find that interaction is beneficial for the collective outcome.

Global liquidity as an early warning indicator of asset price booms: G5 versus broader measures

We test the performance of various measures of global liquidity as early warning indicators of booms in house and equity prices in 20 OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. We use a panel probit approach to test the relative performance of global liquidity measures based on two aggregation schemes: the traditional measures, based on G5 data, and broader measures, based on data for up to 26 countries/currency areas. Our results show that, in the last decade, global liquidity measures outperformed domestic measures as early warning indicators. Between the two global liquidity measures, G5 aggregates often outperformed broader global liquidity measures. The search for the best early warning indicator showed that the G5 real narrow money gap performed best for booms in house prices, while the global real private credit growth gap performed best for booms in equity prices, either when aggregated over G5 or over a broader sample of countries. Nevertheless, given the rising importance of the emerging market economies and a declining share of G5 in global liquidity, the current superior performance of G5 measures may not warrant their superior performance in the future. Therefore, given the importance of global liquidity measures in warning about asset price booms, the need for constructing broader global liquidity measures is warranted.

Implementing Loan-to-Value and Debt-to-Income Ratios: Learning from Country Experiences. The Case of Poland

Starting from the mid-2000s, Poland experienced a period of rapid growth in mortgage lending, with banks offering foreign-currency, high-LTV housing loans, which exposed the sector to rising credit risk and funding challenges. Later, a surge in consumer lending led to a threat of rising credit risk in this segment. These supervisory challenges were addressed through three main instruments: guidelines related to the assessment of a borrower’s creditworthiness as well as LTV and DTI limits. The regulation has been successful from both microprudential and financial stability perspectives, as it has contributed to better risk management by banks and to the reduction of FX mortgage lending.