Beata Orlecka-Sikora

Nanoseismicity and picoseismicity rate changes from static stress triggering caused by a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa

Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and distribution of aftershocks, yet this process has not been thoroughly investigated for nanoseismicity and picoseismicity at centimeter length scales. Here we utilize a unique data set of M ≥ −3.4 earthquakes following a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, that was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine to investigate if rate- and state-based modeling is valid for shallow, mining-induced seismicity. We use Dieterichs (1994) rate- and state-dependent formulation for earthquake productivity, which requires estimation of four parameters: (1) Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock, (2) the reference seismicity rate, (3) frictional resistance parameter, and (4) the duration of aftershock relaxation time. Comparisons of the modeled spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity based on two different source models with the observed distribution show that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used three metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. The null hypothesis, of no significant difference between modeled and observed seismicity rates, was only rejected in the depth interval containing the main shock. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distributions of very small, mining-induced earthquakes can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

Temporal static stress drop variations due to injection activity at The Geysers geothermal field, California

We use a high-quality data set from the NW part of The Geysers geothermal field to determine statistical significance of temporal static stress drop variations and their relation to injection rate changes. We use a group of 322 seismic events which occurred in the proximity of Prati-9 and Prati-29 injection wells to examine the influence of parameters such as moment magnitude, focal mechanism, hypocentral depth, and normalized hypocentral distances from open-hole sections of injection wells on static stress drop changes. Our results indicate that (1) static stress drop variations in time are statistically significant, (2) statistically significant static stress drop changes are inversely related to injection rate fluctuations. Therefore, it is highly expected that static stress drop of seismic events is influenced by pore pressure in underground fluid injection conditions and depends on the effective normal stress and strength of the medium.

Tracking the development of seismic fracture network from The Geysers geothermal field

Underground fluid injections result in rock mass fracturing. The associated environmental hazards in a significant part stem from a possibility for linking these fractures. The resultant crevices may allow for an undesired and hazardous fluid migration. We studied the fracture linking problem on data from a part of The Geysers geothermal field in California, USA. We parameterized seismic events by the distance between hypocenter and injecting well, by the angle between the position vector of hypocentre and the maximum horizontal stress direction and by the angle of rotation required to turn the event’s double-couple mechanism into the prevailing in this area faults’ orientation. To make these parameters comparable, we transformed them to equivalent dimensions. Based on distances between events in the transformed parameter space, we divided the seismic events into clusters. The percentage of potentially linked fractures in clusters was greater at low than at high injection rate.

SHEER “smart” database: technical note

The SHEER database brings together a large amount of data of various types: interdisciplinary site data from seven independent episodes, research data and those for the project results dissemination process. This concerns mainly shale gas exploitation test sites, processing procedures, results of data interpretation and recommendations. The smart SHEER database harmonizes data from different fields (geophysical, geochemical, geological, technological, etc.), creates and provides access to an advanced database of case studies of environmental impact indicators associated with shale gas exploitation and exploration, which previously did not exist. A unique component of the SHEER database comes from the monitoring activity performed during the project in one active shale gas exploration and exploitation site at Wysin, Poland, which started from the pre-operational phase. The SHEER database is capable of the adoption of new data such as results of other Work Packages and has developed an over-arching structure for higher-level integration.

IS-EPOS: a platform for anthropogenic seismicity research

Research in the field of anthropogenic seismicity (AS) requires not only seismicity data but also data regarding the progress of the technological/production activities which is the origin of the induced or triggered seismic events. Such data are typically restricted and proprietary, and therefore, usually not available for independent researchers who wish to develop, perform and verify scientific research. The induced seismicity-European plate observing system (IS-EPOS) web portal offers to its user’s access to data, applications and documents in order to facilitate AS research. IS-EPOS web portal has been designed to serve as one of the main pillars of the Thematic Core Service—-Anthropogenic Hazards belonging to pan-European multidisciplinary research infrastructure created within the EPOS program. IS-EPOS platform is open for research community and general public according to its rules of access. The platform is operating since January 2016 and is now integrated in the EPOS Integrated Core Services. IS-EPOS e-platform promotes new opportunities to study and comprehend the dynamic and complex solid earth system by integrating the use of multidisciplinary data, data products, analysis models and online applications. The integration of existing and new national and transnational Research Infrastructures increases the access and use of multidisciplinary data recorded by the solid earth observing systems, acquired in laboratory experiments and/or produced by computational simulations. In this paper, we describe the structure and the main innovative characteristics implemented in IS-EPOS. The platform is open to accommodate data integrated within other research projects, and it is continuously being updated with improvements in existing features and implementations of new ones. An appendix at the end of the article provides a summary of acronyms and abbreviations in order to make the reader familiar with the terms used throughout the manuscript.

Interval Estimation of Seismic Hazard Parameters

The paper considers Poisson temporal occurrence of earthquakes and presents a way to integrate uncertainties of the estimates of mean activity rate and magnitude cumulative distribution function in the interval estimation of the most widely used seismic hazard functions, such as the exceedance probability and the mean return period. The proposed algorithm can be used either when the Gutenberg–Richter model of magnitude distribution is accepted or when the nonparametric estimation is in use. When the Gutenberg–Richter model of magnitude distribution is used the interval estimation of its parameters is based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. When the nonparametric kernel estimation of magnitude distribution is used, we propose the iterated bias corrected and accelerated method for interval estimation based on the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. The changes resulted from the integrated approach in the interval estimation of the seismic hazard functions with respect to the approach, which neglects the uncertainty of the mean activity rate estimates have been studied using Monte Carlo simulations and two real dataset examples. The results indicate that the uncertainty of mean activity rate affects significantly the interval estimates of hazard functions only when the product of activity rate and the time period, for which the hazard is estimated, is no more than 5.0. When this product becomes greater than 5.0, the impact of the uncertainty of cumulative distribution function of magnitude dominates the impact of the uncertainty of mean activity rate in the aggregated uncertainty of the hazard functions. Following, the interval estimates with and without inclusion of the uncertainty of mean activity rate converge. The presented algorithm is generic and can be applied also to capture the propagation of uncertainty of estimates, which are parameters of a multiparameter function, onto this function.

Assessment of Quantitative Aftershock Productivity Potential in Mining-Induced Seismicity

Strong mining-induced earthquakes exhibit various aftershock patterns. The aftershock productivity is governed by the geomechanical properties of rock in the seismogenic zone, mining-induced stress and coseismic stress changes related to the main shock’s magnitude, source geometry and focal mechanism. In order to assess the quantitative aftershock productivity potential in the mining environment we apply a forecast model based on natural seismicity properties, namely constant tectonic loading and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution. Although previous studies proved that mining-induced seismicity does not obey the simple power law, here we apply it as an approximation of seismicity distribution to resolve the number of aftershocks, not considering their magnitudes. The model used forecasts the aftershock productivity based on the background seismicity level estimated from an average seismic moment released per earthquake and static stress changes caused by a main shock. Thus it accounts only for aftershocks directly triggered by coseismic process. In this study we use data from three different mines, Mponeng (South Africa), Rudna and Bobrek (Poland), representing different geology, exploitation methods and aftershock patterns. Each studied case is treated with individual parameterization adjusted to the data specifics. We propose the modification of the original model, i.e. including the non-uniformity of M0, resulting from spatial correlation of mining-induced seismicity with exploitation. The results show that, even when simplified seismicity distribution parameters are applied, the modified model predicts the number of aftershocks for each analyzed case well and accounts for variations between these values. Such results are thus another example showing that coseismic processes of mining-induced seismicity reflect features of natural seismicity and that similar models can be applied to study the aftershock rate in both the natural and the mining environment.

Time‐Dependent Earthquake Occurrence Rates along the Hellenic Arc

Seismicity rate changes in the Hellenic subduction zone (southern Aegean Sea) were studied by applying the Dieterich (1994) rate/state‐dependent friction model combined with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF). The coseismic slip of the strongest earthquakes (with moment magnitude, M w≥6.0) was considered to contribute to the stress field evolution along with the continuous tectonic loading. Stress changes were calculated just after each strong event, and their influence was examined in connection with the smaller magnitude earthquake occurrence rates. Qualitative and quantitative comparison between the observed seismicity rates (smoothed by the means of a probability density function) and the expected ones, as they were forecasted by the rate/state model, were investigated for the interseismic periods (study periods) between subsequent strong earthquakes. The calculations aim to identify areas of expected increased seismicity rates as candidates to accommodate enhanced seismic activity. Results strongly depend on the determination (smoothing) of the unperturbed (reference) seismicity rates and data adequacy. Seismicity rate results were filtered by certain criteria and constraints, in an attempt to overcome model uncertainties (epicentral errors, rupture models, parameter values) and to provide reliable results for specific areas of major interest, that is, in areas with increased positive Coulomb stress changes values. The modeling approach resulted in satisfactory correlation between observed and synthetic seismicity rates and, in particular, the two strong ( M w≥6) earthquakes that occurred in 2013 are located in areas of increased expected seismicity rates.