Behram Wali

Contributory fault and level of personal injury to drivers involved in head-on collisions: Application of copula-based bivariate ordinal models

The main objective of this study is to simultaneously investigate the degree of injury severity sustained by drivers involved in head-on collisions with respect to fault status designation. This is complicated to answer due to many issues, one of which is the potential presence of correlation between injury outcomes of drivers involved in the same head-on collision. To address this concern, we present seemingly unrelated bivariate ordered response models by analyzing the joint injury severity probability distribution of at-fault and not-at-fault drivers. Moreover, the assumption of bivariate normality of residuals and the linear form of stochastic dependence implied by such models may be unduly restrictive. To test this, Archimedean copula structures and normal mixture marginals are integrated into the joint estimation framework, which can characterize complex forms of stochastic dependencies and non-normality in residual terms. The models are estimated using 2013 Virginia police reported two-vehicle head-on collision data, where exactly one driver is at-fault. The results suggest that both at-fault and not-at-fault drivers sustained serious/fatal injuries in 8% of crashes, whereas, in 4% of the cases, the not-at-fault driver sustained a serious/fatal injury with no injury to the at-fault driver at all. Furthermore, if the at-fault driver is fatigued, apparently asleep, or has been drinking the not-at-fault driver is more likely to sustain a severe/fatal injury, controlling for other factors and potential correlations between the injury outcomes. While not-at-fault vehicle speed affects injury severity of at-fault driver, the effect is smaller than the effect of at-fault vehicle speed on at-fault injury outcome. Contrarily, and importantly, the effect of at-fault vehicle speed on injury severity of not-at-fault driver is almost equal to the effect of not-at-fault vehicle speed on injury outcome of not-at-fault driver. Compared to traditional ordered probability models, the study provides evidence that copula based bivariate models can provide more reliable estimates and richer insights. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Role of Multiagency Response and On-Scene Times in Large-Scale Traffic Incidents

Traffic incidents, often known as nonrecurring events, impose enormous economic and social costs. Compared with short-duration incidents, large-scale incidents can substantially disrupt traffic flow by blocking lanes on highways for long periods. A careful examination of large-scale traffic incidents and associated factors can assist with actionable large-scale incident management strategies. For such an analysis, a unique and comprehensive 5-year incident database on East Tennessee roadways was assembled to conduct an in-depth investigation of large-scale incidents, especially focusing on operational responses, that is, response and on-scene times by various agencies. Incidents longer than 120 min and blocking at least one lane were considered large scale; the database contained 890 incidents, which was about 0.69% of all reported incidents. Rigorous fixed- and random-parameter, hazard-based duration models were estimated to account for the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity in large-scale incidents. The modeling results reveal significant heterogeneity in associations between operational responses and large-scale incident durations. A 30-min increase in response time for the first, second, and third (or more) highway response units translated to a 2.8%, 1.6%, and 4.2% increase in large-scale incident durations, respectively. In addition, longer response times for towing and highway patrol were significantly associated with longer incident durations. Given large-scale incidents, associated factors included vehicle fire, unscheduled roadwork, weekdays, afternoon peaks, and traffic volume. Notably, the associations were heterogeneous; that is, the direction could be positive in some cases and negative in others. Practical implications of the results for large-scale incident management are discussed.

Modeling Traffic Incident Duration Using Quantile Regression

Traffic incidents occur frequently on urban roadways and cause incident-induced congestion. Predicting incident duration is a key step in managing these events. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models can be estimated to relate the mean of incident duration data with its correlates. Because of the presence of larger incidents, duration distributions are often right-skewed; that is, the OLS model underpredicts the durations of larger incidents. Therefore, this study applies a modeling technique known as quantile regression to predict more accurately the skewed distribution of incident durations. Quantile regression estimates the relationships between correlates and a chosen percentile—for example, the 75th or 95th percentile—while the OLS regression is based on the mean of incident duration. With the use of incident data related to more than 85,000 (2013 to 2015) incidents for highways in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, quantile regression results indicate that the magnitudes of parameters and predictions can be quite different compared with OLS regression. In addition to predicting durations of larger incidents more accurately, quantile regressions can estimate the probability of an incident lasting for a specific duration; for example, incidents involving congestion and delay have an approximately 25% chance of lasting more than 100.8 min, while incidents excluding congestion and delay are estimated to have a 25% chance of lasting more than 43.3 min. Such information is helpful in accurately predicting durations and developing potential applications for using quantile regressions for better traffic incident management.

Do safety performance functions used for predicting crash frequency vary across space? Applying geographically weighted regressions to account for spatial heterogeneity

Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) provide a basis for identifying locations where countermeasures can be effective. While SPFs in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) were calibrated based on data from select states, calibration factors can be developed to localize SPFs to other states. Calibration factors typically provide a coarse adjustment-time and space stationarity of associations between crash frequencies and various factors is still assumed, implying that the SPF functional form is transferable. However, with increasing availability of statewide geo-referenced safety data, new spatial analysis methods, and increasing computational power, it is possible to relax the stationarity assumption. Specifically, to address spatial heterogeneity in SPFs, this study proposes relaxing SPFs (referring to them as Localized SPFs (L-SPFs)) that can be developed by using sophisticated geo-spatial modeling techniques that allow correlates of crash frequencies to vary in space. For demonstration, a 2013 geo-referenced freeway crash and traffic database from Virginia is used. As a potential methodological alternative, crash frequencies are predicted by estimating Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regressions. This model significantly outperforms the traditional negative binomial model in terms of model goodness-of-fit, providing a better and fuller understanding of spatial variations in modeled relationships. Our study results uncover significant spatial variations in parameter estimates for Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) and segment length. Ignoring such variations can result in prediction errors. The results indicate low transferability of a single statewide SPF highlighting the importance of developing L-SPFs. From a practical standpoint, L-SPFs can better predict crash frequencies and support prioritizing safety improvements in specific locations.

Fuel economy gaps within and across garages: A bivariate random parameters seemingly unrelated regression approach

Abstract The key objective of this study is to investigate the interrelationship between fuel economy gaps and to quantify the differential effects of several factors on fuel economy gaps of vehicles operated by the same garage. By using a unique fuel economy database (fueleconomy.gov), users’ self-reported fuel economy estimates and government’s fuel economy ratings are analyzed for more than 7000 garages across the United States. The empirical analysis, nonetheless, is complicated owing to the presence of important methodological concerns including potential interrelationship between vehicles within the same garage and unobserved heterogeneity. To address these concerns, bivariate seemingly unrelated fixed and random parameter models are presented. With government’s test cycle ratings tending to over-estimate the actual on-road fuel economy, a significant variation is observed in the fuel economy gaps for the two vehicles across garages. A wide variety of factors such as driving style, fuel economy calculation method, and several vehicle-specific characteristics are considered. Drivers who drive for maximum gas mileage or drives with the traffic flow have greater on-road fuel economy relative to the government’s ratings. Contrarily, volatile drivers have smaller on-road fuel economy relative to the official ratings. Compared to the previous findings, our analysis suggests that the relationship between fuel type and fuel economy gaps is complex and not unidirectional. Regarding several vehicle and manufacturer related variables, the effects do not just significantly vary in magnitude but also in the direction, underscoring the importance of accounting for within-garage correlation and unobserved heterogeneity for making reliable inferences.

Development of Safety Performance Functions: Incorporating Unobserved Heterogeneity and Functional Form Analysis

To improve transportation safety, this study applies Highway Safety Manual (HSM) procedures to roadways while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and exploring alternative functional forms for Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). Specifically, several functional forms are considered in Poisson and Poisson-gamma modeling frameworks. Using 5 years (2011–2015) of crash, traffic, and road inventory data for two-way, two-lane roads in Tennessee, fixed- and random-parameter count data models are calibrated. The models account for important methodological concerns of unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias. With a validation dataset, the calibrated and uncalibrated HSM SPFs and eight new Tennessee-specific SPFs are compared for prediction accuracy. The results show that the statewide calibration factor is 2.48, suggesting rural two-lane, two-way road segment crashes are at least 1.48 times greater than what HSM SPF predicts. Significant variation in four different regions in Tennessee is observed with calibration factors ranging between 2.02 and 2.77. Among all the SPFs considered, fully specified Tennessee-specific random parameter Poisson SPF outperformed all competing SPFs in predicting out-of-sample crashes on these road segments. The best-fit random parameter SPF specification for crash frequency includes the following variables: annual average daily traffic, segment length, shoulder width, lane width, speed limit, and the presence of passing lanes. Significant heterogeneity is observed in the effects of traffic exposure-related variables on crash frequency. The study shows how heterogeneity-based models can be specified and used by practitioners for obtaining accurate crash predictions.

Can Data Generated by Connected Vehicles Enhance Safety? Proactive Approach to Intersection Safety Management

Traditionally, evaluation of intersection safety has been largely reactive and based on historical crash frequency data. However, the emerging data from connected and autonomous vehicles can complement historical data and help in proactively identifying intersections with high levels of variability in instantaneous driving behaviors before the occurrence of crashes. On the basis of data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, this study developed a unique database that integrated intersection crash and inventory data with more than 65 million real-world basic safety messages logged by 3,000 connected vehicles; this database provided a more complete picture of operations and safety performance at intersections. As a proactive safety measure and a leading indicator of safety, location-based volatility was introduced; this quantified variability in instantaneous driving decisions at intersections. Location-based volatility represented the driving performance of connected-vehicle drivers traveling through a specific intersection. As such, with the use of the coefficient of variation as a standardized measure of relative dispersion, location-based volatility was calculated for 116 intersections in Ann Arbor. Rigorous fixed- and random-parameter Poisson regression models were estimated to quantify relationships between intersection-specific volatilities and crash frequencies. Although exposure-related factors were controlled for, the results provided evidence of a statistically significant (at the 5% level) positive association between intersection-specific volatility and crash frequencies for signalized intersections. The implications of these findings for proactive intersection safety management are discussed.

Can Data Generated by Connected Vehicles Enhance Safety?: Proactive Approach to Intersection Safety Management

Traditionally, evaluation of intersection safety has been largely reactive and based on historical crash frequency data. However, the emerging data from connected and autonomous vehicles can complement historical data and help in proactively identifying intersections with high levels of variability in instantaneous driving behaviors before the occurrence of crashes. On the basis of data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, this study developed a unique database that integrated intersection crash and inventory data with more than 65 million real-world basic safety messages logged by 3,000 connected vehicles; this database provided a more complete picture of operations and safety performance at intersections. As a proactive safety measure and a leading indicator of safety, location-based volatility was introduced; this quantified variability in instantaneous driving decisions at intersections. Location-based volatility represented the driving performance of connected-vehicle drivers traveling through a specific intersection. As such, with the use of the coefficient of variation as a standardized measure of relative dispersion, location-based volatility was calculated for 116 intersections in Ann Arbor. Rigorous fixed- and random-parameter Poisson regression models were estimated to quantify relationships between intersection-specific volatilities and crash frequencies. Although exposure-related factors were controlled for, the results provided evidence of a statistically significant (at the 5% level) positive association between intersection-specific volatility and crash frequencies for signalized intersections. The implications of these findings for proactive intersection safety management are discussed.

Analyzing within garage fuel economy gaps to support vehicle purchasing decisions – A copula-based modeling & forecasting approach

Abstract A key purpose of the U.S. government fuel economy ratings is to provide precise and unbiased fuel economy estimates to assist consumers in their vehicle purchase decisions. For the official fuel economy ratings to be useful, the numbers must be relatively reliable. This study focuses on quantifying the variations of on-road fuel economy relative to official government ratings (fuel economy gap) and seeks proper characterizations for the degree of stochastic dependence between the fuel economy gaps of pairs of vehicles. By using unique data reported by customers of the U.S. government website www.fueleconomy.gov , the study presents an innovative copula-based joint-modeling and forecasting framework for exploring the complex stochastic dependencies (both nonlinear and non-normal) between the fuel economy gaps of vehicles reported by the same person. While the EPA label estimates are similar to the average numbers reported by website customers, significant, non-linear variation exists in the fuel economy gaps for the two vehicles across the sample. In particular, a positive dependence, characterized by Student-t copula, is observed between the fuel economy gaps of the two vehicles with significant dependencies in the tails of the bivariate distribution; a pair in which one vehicle achieves better (worse) fuel economy is likely to contain a second vehicle getting better (worse) fuel economy as well. However, the results also suggest that the strength of overall association is weak (Kendall’s Tau = 0.28). This implies a lack of compelling agreement between fuel economy gaps which could weaken consumers’ confidence in making relative comparisons among vehicles.

Walkability in the Connected and Automated Vehicle Era: A U.S. Perspective on Research Needs

Walkability and walking activity are of interest to planners, engineers, and health practitioners for their potential to improve safety, promote environmental and public health, and increase social equity. Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) will reshape the built environment, mobility, and safety in ways we cannot know with certainty—but which we may anticipate will change the meaning of “walkability.” The CAV era may provide economic, environmental, and social benefits, while potentially disrupting the status quo. This paper considers the concept of walkability in light of the approaching transition to CAVs, considering literature in engineering, information technology, built environment, land use, and public health, to support a discussion on research needs. To add depth, we subject a collection of research papers and technical reports to text analytics.