Belinda J. Gabbe

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

How valid is a self reported 12 month sports injury history

Background: A past injury history is one of the most commonly cited risk factors for sports injury. Often, injury history data are collected by self report surveys, with the potential for recall bias. Objective: To assess the accuracy of a 12 month injury history recall in a population of 70 community level Australian football players. Methods: The retrospective, self reported injury histories of 70 community level Australian football players were compared with prospective injury surveillance records for the same 12 month period. The accuracy of the players’ recall of the number of injuries, injured body regions, and injury diagnosis was assessed. Results: Recall accuracy declined as the level of detail requested increased. All players could recall whether or not they were injured during the previous year. Almost 80% were able to accurately recall the number of injuries and body regions injured, but not the diagnoses, whereas only 61% were able to record the exact number, body region, and diagnosis of each injury sustained. Discussion: The findings of this study highlight the difficulty of using retrospectively collected injury data for research purposes. Any injury research relying on self reported injury history data to establish the relation between injury history and injury risk should consider the validity of the self report injury histories.

Predictors of hamstring injury at the elite level of Australian football

Background: Hamstring injuries are the most common injury sustained by elite Australian football players and result in substantial costs because of missed training time, unavailability for matches and lost player payments. Evidence to support proposed risk factors for hamstring injury is generally lacking, limiting the development of appropriate prevention strategies.

Measuring the Population Burden of Injuries—Implications for Global and National Estimates: A Multi-centre Prospective UK Longitudinal Study

Ronan Lyons and colleagues compared the population burden of injuries using different approaches from the UK Burden of Injury and Global Burden of Disease studies and find that the absolute UK burden of injury is higher than previously estimated.

Risk factors for hamstring injuries in community level Australian football

Objectives: To identify risk factors for hamstring injury at the community level of Australian football. Methods: A total of 126 community level Australian football players participated in this prospective cohort study. To provide baseline measurements, they completed a questionnaire and had a musculoskeletal screen during the 2000 preseason. All were monitored over the season. Injury surveillance and exposure data were collected for the full season. Survival analysis was used to identify independent predictors of hamstring injury. Results: A hamstring injury was the first injury of the season in 20 players (16%). After adjustment for exposure, increasing age and decreased quadriceps flexibility were identified as significant independent predictors of the time to sustaining a hamstring injury. Older age (⩾23 years) was associated with an increased risk of hamstring injury (RR 3.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 14.0; p  =  0.044). Players with increased quadriceps flexibility (as measured by the modified Thomas test) were less likely to sustain a hamstring injury (RR 0.3; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8; p  =  0.022). Conclusions: The findings of this study can be used in the development of hamstring injury prevention strategies and to identify Australian football players at increased risk of hamstring injury.

Improved functional outcomes for major trauma patients in a regionalized, inclusive trauma system.

Objective:To describe outcomes of major trauma survivors managed in an organized trauma system, including the association between levels of care and outcomes over time. Background:Trauma care systems aim to reduce deaths and disability. Studies have found that regionalization of trauma care reduces mortality but the impact on quality of survival is unknown. Evaluation of a trauma system should include mortality and morbidity. Methods:Predictors of 12-month functional (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended) outcomes after blunt major trauma (Injury Severity Score >15) in an organized trauma system were explored using ordered logistic regression for the period October 2006 to June 2009. Data from the population-based Victorian State Trauma Registry were used. Results:There were 4986 patients older than 18 years. In-hospital mortality decreased from 11.9% in 2006–2007 to 9.9% in 2008–2009. The follow-up rate at 12 months was 86% (n = 3824). Eighty percent reported functional limitations. Odds of better functional outcome increased in the 2007–2008 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.22; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.41] and 2008–2009 (AOR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.34) years compared with 2006–2007. Cases managed at major trauma services (MTS) achieved better functional outcome (AOR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.45). Female gender, older age, and lower levels of education demonstrated lower adjusted odds of better outcome. Conclusions:Despite an annual decline in mortality, risk-adjusted functional outcomes improved over time, and cases managed at MTS (level-1 trauma centers) demonstrated better functional outcomes. The findings provide early evidence that this inclusive, regionalized trauma system is achieving its aims.

Developing Australia's first statewide trauma registry: what are the lessons?

Trauma registries, like disease registries, provide an important analysis tool to assess the management of patient care. Trauma registries are well established and relatively common in the USA and have been used to change legislation, promote trauma prevention and to evaluate trauma system effectiveness. In Australia, the first truly statewide trauma registry was established in Victoria in 2001 with an estimated capture of 1700 major trauma cases annually. The Victorian State Trauma Registry, managed by the Victorian State Trauma Outcomes Registry and Monitoring (VSTORM) group, was established in response to a ministerial review of trauma and emergency services undertaken in 1997 to advise the Victorian Government on a best practice model of trauma service provision that was responsive to the particular needs of critically ill trauma patients. This taskforce recommended the establishment of a new system of care for major trauma patients in Victoria and a statewide trauma registry to monitor this new system. The development of the Victorian state trauma registry has shown that there are certain issues that must be resolved for successful implementation of any system‐wide registry. This paper describes the issues faced by VSTORM in developing, implementing and maintaining a statewide trauma registry.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality and 6-month functional outcomes in older adults after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

INTRODUCTION Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the single largest cause of death and disability following injury worldwide. While TBI in older adults is less common, it still contributes to significant morbidity and mortality in this group. Understanding the patient characteristics that result in good and poor outcome after TBI is important in the clinical management and prognosis of older adult TBI patients. This population-based study investigated predictors of mortality and longer term functional outcomes following serious TBI in older adults. METHODS All older adults (aged>64 years), isolated moderate to severe TBI cases from the population-based Victorian State Trauma Registry for the period July 2005 to June 2007 (inclusive) were extracted for analysis. Demographic, injury event, injury diagnosis, management and comorbid status information were obtained and the outcomes of interest were in-hospital mortality, and the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) score at 6 months post-injury. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and independent living (GOS-E>4) status at 6 months. RESULTS Of the 428 isolated, older adult TBI cases, the majority were the result of a fall (88%), male (55%), and aged>74 years (76%). The in-hospital death rate was 28% and increasing age (p=0.009), decreasing GCS (p<0.001) and injury type (p=0.002) were significant independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Of the 310 patients who survived to discharge, 65% were successfully followed-up 6 months following injury. There was no difference between patients lost to follow-up and those successfully followed-up with respect to the key population indicators of age, gender, or head injury severity. Younger (<75 years) patients, and those with an SBP on arrival at hospital of 131-150mmHg, were at increased odds of living independently at follow-up. No patients with a GCS<9 had a good 6-month outcome, and most of them died. The survival rate for brainstem injury was also low (21%). CONCLUSION In this population-based study, we found that age, GCS, brainstem injury, and systolic blood pressure were the most important factors in predicting outcome in older adults with an isolated moderate to severe TBI.

Population-based capture of long-term functional and quality of life outcomes after major trauma: the experiences of the Victorian State Trauma Registry.

Improved survival rates for trauma patients has placed a greater emphasis on determining the morbidity associated with injury, including the degree of functional loss, ongoing disability, and lost quality of life experienced by survivors.1–3 Improvements in trauma care in advanced trauma systems have the potential to influence morbidity rather than mortality; however, there is no systematic approach to measuring morbidity after injury and, therefore, no possibility of meaningfully benchmarking improvements. Anecdotally, a major impediment in measuring injury-related morbidity has been a belief that it is not feasible. Collection of long-term outcomes data are necessary to establish the impact of the injury problem, evaluate treatment approaches, inform injury prevention research, and improve public health program planning. Despite acknowledgment that the greatest cost burden of injury is related to morbidity, routine measurement of injury outcomes other than mortality is rare. Existing surveillance systems such as hospital admission datasets and trauma registries fail to include long-term outcome measures. Cost, institutional ethics approval, selection of instruments, and mode of administration are the barriers toward the collection of long-term outcomes data. These barriers are not insurmountable. This article outlines the approach taken by the Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR) in Australia to address these issues and implement routine, population-based follow-up of adult trauma survivors.

Predictors of Moderate or Severe Pain 6 Months After Orthopaedic Injury: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective: To determine predictors of moderate or severe pain 6 months after orthopaedic injury. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Two adult level 1 trauma centers in Victoria, Australia. Participants: A total of 1290 adults admitted with orthopaedic injuries and registered by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. Main Outcome Measures: Participant self-reported pain and health status using an 11-point numerical rating scale and the 12-item Short-Form health survey, respectively. Results: The prevalence of moderate or severe pain was 48% [95% confidence interval (CI), 45-51] at discharge and 30% (95% CI, 28-33) at 6 months postinjury. Failure to complete high school [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.5 (95% CI, 1.1-1.9)], self-reported preinjury pain-related disability [AOR 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.5)], eligibility for compensation [AOR 2.1 (95% CI, 1.6-2.8)], and moderate or severe pain at discharge from the acute hospital [AOR 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8-3.1)] were found to be independent predictors of moderate or severe pain at 6 months postinjury. Conclusions: Moderate or severe pain is commonly reported 6 months after orthopaedic trauma. Pain intensity at discharge and the effects of a “no-fault” compensation system are potentially modifiable factors that might be addressed through intervention studies to reduce the burden of persistent pain after orthopaedic trauma.