Belinda Wu

A PTAL approach to measuring changes in bus service accessibility

Accessible transport systems are essential to ensure equal opportunities for all people in society. The need for information about transport disadvantage is now a key policy requirement and previous studies have highlighted the need for tools to assess the impact of interventions on the bus network and the accessibility of the system. Geographical Information System (GIS) and ACCMAP enable the analysis of transport disadvantage and accessibility. This paper provides an analysis of the Citybus Network in Northern Ireland and assesses the spatial impact of a hypothetical network change on populations residing within the Citybus network area.

A spatial microsimulation model with student agents

In this paper, we present a dynamic simulation model which projects the future population of the city of Leeds as a basis for policy analysis and scenario planning. We argue that microsimulation modelling is not entirely effective in the representation of student populations. Alternative approaches using both spatial interaction models and student agents are presented and evaluated. The results from the agent-based model are found to be particularly encouraging. We suggest that agent-based modelling and microsimulation are powerful as complementary technologies for individual-based modelling.

A Review of Microsimulation and Hybrid Agent-Based Approaches

In this chapter we introduce an approach to individual based modelling of social and economic systems. Microsimulation models (MSM) appear similar to ABM through the representation of individual decision-making units, but there is a significant variation of emphasis between the two approaches. MSM are typically stochastic or rule-based, and with a strong applied policy focus. These characteristics are explored and elaborated through a number of examples. While MSM are often very rich in their representation of ‘structures’, ABM are usually better tuned to the analysis of ‘behaviours’. We therefore argue that there is a strong logic to considering the MSM and ABM approaches as complementary and to begin a search for hybrids which might combine the best features of both approaches.

Agent-Based Extensions to a Spatial Microsimulation Model of Demographic Change

New technologies and techniques now enable us to construct complex social models with more sophistication. In this paper we introduce an individual-based model, which combines the strengths of both microsimulation models and agent-based model approaches to project the UK population 30 years into the future. The hybrid modelling approach has been adopted to add flexibility and practicality in order to capture individual characteristics, especially in terms of individual movements, interactions and behaviours in the absence of suitable microdata. Such characteristics during the life courses of individuals are modelled through an event-driven model that simulates discrete processes that represent important demographic transitions.

Moses: A grid-enabled spatial decision support system

The authors present an architecture for simulation modeling using the resources of grid computing. The use of the grid provides access to the substantial data storage and processing power, which are necessary to translate such models from computational tools into genuine planning aids. As well as providing access to virtualized compute resources, the architecture allows customized applications to meet the needs of an array of potential user organizations. A number of key obstacles in the deployment and integration of e-Science services are identified. These include the high computational costs of simulation modeling at the microscale for typical ‘‘what if’’ scenario questions in research and policy settings; the management and technical issues relating to security in licensing common data sources; sociocultural, legal, and administrative restrictions on the privacy of individual-level response data; and the slow development and lack of uptake of agreed standards such as JSR-168 compliant portlets in the construction of useable applications.

A Dynamic MSM With Agent Elements for Spatial Demographic Forecasting

Individual-based models such as microsimulation models (MSMs) provide an alternative to macroscopic models in social simulation and modeling. In contrast to the traditional models where individual characteristics are often blurred or even disregarded, MSM provides the realistic disaggregated information that is often vital for modern policy problems. MSM has been extensively applied and well tested in social modeling. However, it has been criticized for being less strong in modeling interactions between individuals and individual behaviors. MSM also struggles where realistic micro data are not available. Agent-based models (ABMs) can model the demographic process through interactions between the agents and with the environment that they live in. The combination of MSM and ABM provides a new approach to enhance complex social modeling. In our study, we attempt to provide better groundwork to facilitate policy and decision making for the U.K. population through a hybrid model that combines the strength of the two complementary techniques.

MoSeS: Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science

MoSeS (Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science) is a research node of the National Centre for e-Social Science. MoSeS uses e-Science techniques to execute an events-driven model that simulates discrete demographic processes; this allows us to project the UK population 25 years into the future. This paper describes the architecture, simulation methodology and latest results obtained by MoSeS.

Moses: A Dynamic Spatial Microsimulation Model for Demographic Planning

People’s movements, interactions and behaviours have always been at the centre of the modelling of complex social systems. This chapter introduces an individual-based, dynamic spatial microsimulation model that simulates the population evolution through the individual changes in various demographic processes at a fine spatial scale. Following discussions of the features of this model, details of the model design and development are described. The simulated results over the period of 30 years are also analysed and discussed.

Moses: An Innovative Way to Model Heterogeneity in Complex Social Systems

Computer models can provide valuable groundwork for decision making. Complex social systems present great challenges for building such models. New technologies and techniques enable us to attempt more sophistication in complex social models than in the past. This paper presented an innovative approach to model a large number of heterogeneous individuals on a fine spatial scale to assist the demographic planning in UK.