Ben Surridge

Bringing diverse knowledge sources together – A meta-model for supporting integrated catchment management

Integrated catchment management (ICM), as promoted by recent legislation such as the European Water Framework Directive, presents difficult challenges to planners and decision-makers. To support decision-making in the face of high complexity and uncertainty, tools are required that can integrate the evidence base required to evaluate alternative management scenarios and promote communication and social learning. In this paper we present a pragmatic approach for developing an integrated decision-support tool, where the available sources of information are very diverse and a tight model coupling is not possible. In the first instance, a loosely coupled model is developed which includes numerical sub-models and knowledge-based sub-models. However, such a model is not easy for decision-makers and stakeholders to operate without modelling skills. Therefore, we derive from it a meta-model based on a Bayesian Network approach which is a decision-support tool tailored to the needs of the decision-makers and is fast and easy to operate. The meta-model can be derived at different levels of detail and complexity according to the requirements of the decision-makers. In our case, the meta-model was designed for high-level decision-makers to explore conflicts and synergies between management actions at the catchment scale. As prediction uncertainties are propagated and explicitly represented in the model outcomes, important knowledge gaps can be identified and an evidence base for robust decision-making is provided. The framework seeks to promote the development of modelling tools that can support ICM both by providing an integrated scientific evidence base and by facilitating communication and learning processes.

Science-driven integrated river basin management: a mirage?

Abstract The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) represents a new approach to the management of water across Europe. As part of the implementation of the WFD, integrated, catchment-scale plans for the protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems must be developed. These plans need to be supported by new science, focused on understanding the general modes of behaviour of complex aquatic ecosystems, and the fundamental principles that govern this behaviour. This requires the collaborative production of new scientific knowledge, drawing on expertise from multiple academic disciplines, and refocusing on larger spatial and longer temporal scales. To mobilise existing scientific knowledge, and to produce new knowledge that is effectively adopted in policy and practice, scientists and managers must also develop collaborative partnerships involving the co-production and bidirectional exchange of knowledge. However, many personal and institutional barriers currently limit the development of such partnerships. Particular issues surround individual willingness to step outside disciplinary comfort zones, and the role of professional norms, rewards and value systems. The lack of training and support for individual knowledge-brokers, who work to develop these partnerships at the interface between science and management, is also a limiting factor. Even with such collaborative partnerships in place between scientists, and between scientists and managers, scientific knowledge will only ever be one contributor to the decision-making processes occurring within the WFD. Scientific knowledge will compete alongside issues of personal and institutional values, of moral judgements, of equity and of social justice in the consensus-building processes occurring within decision-making fora. The potential for, and the limits of, scientific knowledge to support the implementation of the WFD should be clearly recognised.

Phosphate oxygen isotopes within aquatic ecosystems: global data synthesis and future research priorities.

The oxygen isotope ratio of dissolved inorganic phosphate (δ(18)Op) represents a novel and potentially powerful stable isotope tracer for biogeochemical research. Analysis of δ(18)Op may offer new insights into the relative importance of different sources of phosphorus within natural ecosystems. Due to the isotope fractionations that occur alongside the metabolism of phosphorus, δ(18)Op could also be used to better understand the intracellular and extracellular reaction mechanisms that control phosphorus cycling. In this review focussed on aquatic ecosystems, we examine the theoretical basis to using stable oxygen isotopes within phosphorus research. We consider the methodological challenges involved in accurately determining δ(18)Op, given aquatic matrices in which potential sources of contaminant oxygen are ubiquitous. Finally, we synthesise the existing global data regarding δ(18)Op in aquatic ecosystems, concluding by identifying four key areas for future development of δ(18)Op research. Through this synthesis, we seek to stimulate broader interest in the use of δ(18)Op to address the significant research and management challenges that continue to surround the stewardship of phosphorus.

A framework for coupling explanation and prediction in hydroecological modelling

Causal explanation and empirical prediction are usually addressed separately when modelling ecological systems. This potentially leads to erroneous conflation of model explanatory and predictive power, to predictive models that lack ecological interpretability, or to limited feedback between predictive modelling and theory development. These are fundamental challenges to appropriate statistical and scientific use of ecological models. To help address such challenges, we propose a novel, integrated modelling framework which couples explanatory modelling for causal understanding and input variable selection with a machine learning approach for empirical prediction. Exemplar datasets from the field of freshwater ecology are used to develop and evaluate the framework, based on 267 stream and river monitoring stations across England, UK. These data describe spatial patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate community indices that are hypothesised to be driven by meso-scale physical and chemical habitat conditions. Whilst explanatory models developed using structural equation modelling performed strongly (r2 for two macroinvertebrate indices?=?0.64-0.70), predictive models based on extremely randomised trees demonstrated moderate performance (r2 for the same indices?=?0.50-0.61). However, through coupling explanatory and predictive components, our proposed framework yields ecologically-interpretable predictive models which also maintain the parsimony and accuracy of models based on solely predictive approaches. This significantly enhances the opportunity for feedback among causal theory, empirical data and prediction within environmental modelling. A novel framework for coupling explanatory and predictive modelling is proposed.Applied to ecological data describing controls on river benthic macroinvertebrate communities.Structural equation models underpin explanation and expert-based input variable selection.Extremely randomised trees used for prediction across pristine and disturbed river sites.Parsimonious, accurate, interpretable models generated by coupling explanation and prediction.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Isotopic Fingerprint for Phosphorus in Drinking Water Supplies

Phosphate dosing of drinking water supplies, coupled with leakage from distribution networks, represents a significant input of phosphorus to the environment. The oxygen isotope composition of phosphate (δ(18)OPO4), a novel stable isotope tracer for phosphorus, offers new opportunities to understand the importance of phosphorus derived from sources such as drinking water. We report the first assessment of δ(18)OPO4 within drinking water supplies. A total of 40 samples from phosphate-dosed distribution networks were analyzed from across England and Wales. In addition, samples of the source orthophosphoric acid used for dosing were also analyzed. Two distinct isotopic signatures for drinking water were identified (average = +13.2 or +19.7‰), primarily determined by δ(18)OPO4 of the source acid (average = +12.4 or +19.7‰). Dependent upon the source acid used, drinking water δ(18)OPO4 appears isotopically distinct from a number of other phosphorus sources. Isotopic offsets from the source acid ranging from -0.9 to +2.8‰ were observed. There was little evidence that equilibrium isotope fractionation dominated within the networks, with offsets from temperature-dependent equilibrium ranging from -4.8 to +4.2‰. While partial equilibrium fractionation may have occurred, kinetic effects associated with microbial uptake of phosphorus or abiotic sorption and dissolution reactions may also contribute to δ(18)OPO4 within drinking water supplies.

The stocks and flows of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium across a 30-year time series for agriculture in Huantai county, China

In order to improve the efficiency of nutrient use whilst also meeting projected changes in the demand for food within China, new nutrient management frameworks comprised of policy, practice and the means of delivering change are required. These frameworks should be underpinned by systemic analyses of the stocks and flows of nutrients within agricultural production. In this paper, a 30-year time series of the stocks and flows of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) are reported for Huantai county, an exemplar area of intensive agricultural production in the North China Plain. Substance flow analyses were constructed for the major crop systems in the county across the period 1983-2014. On average across all production systems between 2010 and 2014, total annual nutrient inputs to agricultural land in Huantai county remained high at 18.1kt N, 2.7kt P and 7.8kt K (696kg N ha-1; 104kgP ha-1; 300kgK ha-1). Whilst the application of inorganic fertiliser dominated these inputs, crop residues, atmospheric deposition and livestock manure represented significant, yet largely unrecognised, sources of nutrients, depending on the individual production system and the period of time. Whilst nutrient use efficiency (NUE) increased for N and P between 1983 and 2014, future improvements in NUE will require better alignment of nutrient inputs and crop demand. This is particularly true for high-value fruit and vegetable production, in which appropriate recognition of nutrient supply from sources such as manure and from soil reserves will be required to enhance NUE. Aligned with the structural organisation of the public agricultural extension service at county-scale in China, our analyses highlight key areas for the development of future agricultural policy and farm advice in order to rebalance the management of natural resources from a focus on production and growth towards the aims of efficiency and sustainability.

Chapter 1.5:Developing the Evidence Base for Integrated Catchment Management: Challenges and Opportunities

Water is a fundamental natural resource for humans and for all other organisms, but is under immense pressure from climate change, population growth, changing living standards and rising environmental expectations. Globally, water underpins many of the Millennium Development Goals set by the UN Gene...

Phosphorus fluxes to the environment from mains water leakage: Seasonality and future scenarios

Accurate quantification of sources of phosphorus (P) entering the environment is essential for the management of aquatic ecosystems. P fluxes from mains water leakage (MWL-P) have recently been identified as a potentially significant source of P in urbanised catchments. However, both the temporal dynamics of this flux and the potential future significance relative to P fluxes from wastewater treatment works (WWT-P) remain poorly constrained. Using the River Thames catchment in England as an exemplar, we present the first quantification of both the seasonal dynamics of current MWL-P fluxes and future flux scenarios to 2040, relative to WWT-P loads and to P loads exported from the catchment. The magnitude of the MWL-P flux shows a strong seasonal signal, with pipe burst and leakage events resulting in peak P fluxes in winter (December, January, February) that are >150% of fluxes in either spring (March, April, May) or autumn (September, October, November). We estimate that MWL-P is equivalent to up to 20% of WWT-P during peak leakage events. Winter rainfall events control temporal variation in both WWT-P and riverine P fluxes which consequently masks any signal in riverine P fluxes associated with MWL-P. The annual average ratio of MWL-P flux to WWT-P flux is predicted to increase from 15 to 38% between 2015 and 2040, associated with large increases in P removal at wastewater treatment works by 2040 relative to modest reductions in mains water leakage. However, further research is required to understand the fate of MWL-P in the environment. Future P research and management programmes should more fully consider MWL-P and its seasonal dynamics, alongside the likely impacts of this source of P on water quality.