Benedetta Sanjust di Teulada

Modeling the Propensity to Use a Sustainable Mode in the Context of a Program of Voluntary Change in Travel Behavior

This paper proposes a modeling approach for evaluating the effect of a personalized travel plan on a sustainable mode choice. A panel binary probit was estimated by using the approach of composite marginal-likelihood estimation. The formulation modeled the choice of using a light rail service (versus that of not using it) by means of daily individual panel observations collected in the context of a program of voluntary travel behavior change (VTBC) before and after the provision of a personalized travel plan. In this regard, a VTBC program was a policy measure that used communication and information to encourage individuals to use more sustainable travel modes. In this study, the VTBC program was implemented by providing car users with personalized information about how to introduce the light rail service into their travel patterns.

The influence of activity-travel patterns on the success of VTBC

ABSTRACT The objective of this work is to verify how the complexity of activity-travel patterns may influence the propensity to change travel behaviour in the context of a Voluntary Travel Behaviour Change (VTBC) programme. Data used in this work was drawn from a VTBC programme implemented in Cagliari, Italy between 2011 and 2012, for promoting the use of an underutilised Light Rail service (LR). A descriptive comparative analysis of activity–travel patterns recorded before and after the delivery of a personalised travel plan was reported. In addition to the descriptive analysis, a panel Probit model is proposed to further understand the influence of complex trip-chaining behaviours on the propensity to change travel behaviours. The results indicate that when individuals are presented with a convenient transport alternative that allows them to flexibly chain their activities, the propensity to use a sustainable mode of transport increases. Abbreviations: ABA: activity – based analysis; AW: after work tour; BW: before work tour; CMS: casteddu mobility styles; CW: complex working day; HWC: home to work commute tour; LR: light rail; NHB: non home based tour; NNW: non work tour; NW: non working day; P&R: park and rider; PP&R: prospective park and rider; PTP: personalised travel plan; SW: simple working day; VTBC: voluntary travel behaviour change; WB: work based tour

Estimation and validation of hybrid choice models to identify the role of perception in the choice to cycle

Abstract Cycling is one of the most sustainable and ecofriendly modes of travel and a good form of exercise. Many government and public health authorities recommend cycling to stay fit as well as to reduce air and noise pollution, CO2 emissions, traffic congestion, and other negative consequences of car use. In light of these benefits, a major challenge for researchers today is how to promote cycling. However, in countries where cycling is not common, apart from the need for proper cycling facilities, one major issue concerns people’s perception of cycling for sport or recreational activities rather than as a mode of transport. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of perception in the likelihood of the bike being used for utilitarian purposes. We focus on the perception of: the bicycle as a means of transport; bikeability (in terms of usefulness and safety) and of bike infrastructure. Hybrid Choice Models (HCMs) have been used to estimate the effect of people’s perception on the propensity to bike. The HCM also accounts for the serial correlation between error terms in the discrete and latent perceptions, to allow for agent-common unknown factors. Furthermore, we also validate the model results using a hold-out sample and discuss some policy measures aimed at changing travel behavior. The results suggest that, besides individual characteristics, latent aspects related to the perception of the context and of the bicycle as a means of transport strongly affect the propensity to cycle.