Benedict Clements

External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries

This paper examines the channels through which external debt affects growth in low-income countries. Our results suggest that the substantial reduction in the stock of external debt projected for highly indebted poor countries (HIPCs) would directly increase per capita income growth by about 1 percentage point per annum. Reductions in external debt service could also provide an indirect boost to growth through their effects on public investment. If half of all debt-service relief were channeled for such purposes without increasing the budget deficit, then growth could accelerate in some HIPCs by an additional 0.5 percentage point per annum.

Energy Subsidy Reform : Lessons and Implications

Energy subsidies have wide-ranging economic consequences. While aimed at protecting consumers, subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, crowd-out priority public spending, and depress private investment, including in the energy sector. Subsidies also distort resource allocation by encouraging excessive energy consumption, artificially promoting capital-intensive industries, reducing incentives for investment in renewable energy, and accelerating the depletion of natural resources. Most subsidy benefits are captured by higher-income households, reinforcing inequality. Even future generations are affected through the damaging effects of increased energy consumption on global warming. This paper provides: (i) the most comprehensive estimates of energy subsidies currently available for 176 countries; and (ii) an analysis of ―how to do‖ energy subsidy reform, drawing on insights from 22 country case studies undertaken by IMF staff and analyses carried out by other institutions.

Foreign Aid and Revenue Response Does the Composition of Aid Matter

This paper examines the revenue response to inflows of foreign aid in 107 countries during the period 1970-2000. In particular, it investigates whether the impact of aid on the revenue effort depends on the composition of aid (grants vis-a-vis loans). The results indicate that while concessional loans are associated with higher domestic revenue mobilization, the opposite is true of grants. On average, the dampening effect of grants on the revenue effort is modest. However, for those countries plagued by high levels of corruption, our results suggest that the decline in revenues completely offsets the increase in grants. The results are robust to various specifications.

Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Abstract The paper examines the fiscal effects of armed conflict and terrorism on low- and middle-income countries using two approaches. First, an analysis of 22 conflict episodes shows that armed conflict is associated with lower growth and higher inflation, and has adverse effects on tax revenues and investment. It also leads to higher government spending on defense, but this tends to be at the expense of macroeconomic stability rather than at the cost of lower spending on education and health. Second, econometric estimates provide some support for the hypothesis that conflict and terrorism have a significant negative impact on growth through changes in the composition of government spending. There is also some evidence that armed conflict has a direct, significant impact on growth, independent of its impact on government spending. Thus, there is potential for a sizable “peace dividend” for countries that are able to resolve conflict and terrorism.

Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries; Implications for Achieving the MDGs

Using panel data from 120 developing countries from 1975 to 2000, this paper explores the direct and indirect channels linking social spending, human capital, and growth in a system of equations. The paper finds that both education and health spending have a positive and significant direct impact on the accumulation of education and health capital, and thus can lead to higher economic growth. The paper also finds that other policy interventions, such as improving governance, reducing excessive budget deficits, and taming inflation, can also be helpful in moving countries toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). As such, higher spending alone is not sufficient to achieve the MDGs.

Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries

This paper assesses the effects of expenditure composition as well as fiscal adjustment on economic growth in a sample of 39 low-income countries during the 1990s. The paper finds that strong budgetary positions and fiscal consolidation are generally associated with higher economic growth in both the short and long terms. The composition of public outlays also matters: Countries where spending is concentrated on wages tend to have lower growth, while those that allocate higher shares to capital and nonwage goods and services enjoy faster output expansion. Expenditure composition, along with the size of the fiscal consolidation and initial fiscal conditions, affects the sustainability of adjustment. Initial fiscal conditions also have a bearing on the nexus between fiscal deficits and growth.

Helping Countries Develop : The Role of Fiscal Policy

This publication contains a number of papers by authors using recent research to discuss key principles for the conduct of fiscal policy in developing countries, particularly the poorest countries where there are often insufficient public revenues available to meet spending demands. The papers consider a range of issues organised under the headings of: macroeconomic policy in developing countries; public spending and meeting the Millennium Development Goals; revenues and growth; fiscal policy and aid. The publication also includes two papers on i) the fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low and middle income countries, and ii) a comparison between two public expenditure management systems in Africa.

Currency substitution: The recent experience of Bolivia

This paper analyzes the determinants of currency substitution in Bolivia in the period following the 1984/85 hyperinflation. We find that expected exchange rate depreciation and actual interest rate differentials between boliviano and dollar deposits in the Bolivian banking system are statistically significant determinants of the degree of currency substitution. However, the explanatory power of these variables is low compared to variables that measure the degree of inertia in the currency substitution process. Thus, further reductions in inflation or higher interest rates for boliviano bank deposits are likely to have but a small effect on dollarization.

Monetary Policy Under EMU; Differences in the Transmission Mechanism?

This study identifies differences in the monetary policy transmission mechanism across the countries in the euro area. It is argued that part of the differences in the response of economic activity to monetary policy during the pre-EMU period, found in other studies, reflected differences in monetary policy reaction functions, rather than different transmission mechanisms. In light of this, the paper constructs an empirical model on the basis of common reaction functions. The results confirm that even when a common monetary policy is implemented, its effects on economic activity are likely to differ across EMU countries. The paper also constructs an aggregate measure of the effect of monetary policy on prices and output. Finally, the paper examines the relative strength of the credit, exchange rate, and interest rate channels of monetary transmission in EMU countries.

Women, Work, and the Economy:Macroeconomic Gains from Gender Equity

The proposed SDN discusses the specific macro-critical aspects of women’s participation in the labor market and the constraints that prevent women from developing their full economic potential. Building on earlier Fund analysis, work undertaken by other organizations and academic research, the SDN presents possible policies to overcome these obstacles in different types of countries.