Bénédicte Stengel

Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with mortality and end-stage renal disease. A collaborative meta-analysis of kidney disease population cohorts

We studied here the independent associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We performed a collaborative meta-analysis of 13 studies totaling 21,688 patients selected for CKD of diverse etiology. After adjustment for potential confounders and albuminuria, we found that a 15 ml/min per 1.73 m² lower eGFR below a threshold of 45 ml/min per 1.73 m² was significantly associated with mortality and ESRD (pooled hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.47 and 6.24, respectively). There was significant heterogeneity between studies for both HR estimates. After adjustment for risk factors and eGFR, an eightfold higher albumin- or protein-to-creatinine ratio was significantly associated with mortality (pooled HR 1.40) without evidence of significant heterogeneity and with ESRD (pooled HR 3.04), with significant heterogeneity between HR estimates. Lower eGFR and more severe albuminuria independently predict mortality and ESRD among individuals selected for CKD, with the associations stronger for ESRD than for mortality. Thus, these relationships are consistent with CKD stage classifications based on eGFR and suggest that albuminuria provides additional prognostic information among individuals with CKD.

Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality

IMPORTANCE The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

Lifestyle factors, obesity and the risk of chronic kidney disease

Background Some lifestyle behaviors and obesity are risk factors for vascular disease, but their relation to kidney disease is uncertain. Methods To determine whether physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol drinking and obesity are associated with the risk of chronic kidney disease, we examined data from a nonconcurrent cohort study of 9,082 U.S. adults, aged 30–74 years, who participated in the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES II) from 1976 through 1980. By linking the NHANES II Mortality Study with the Medicare end-stage kidney disease registry, we identified 189 incident cases of either treated end-stage kidney disease or chronic kidney disease-related death through 1992. Results The risk of chronic kidney disease was related to physical inactivity both with and without adjustment for age, sex, race and body-mass index. The adjusted relative risk (RR) of moderately active versus very active persons was 1.2 (95% confidence interval = 0.7–1.8), and of inactive versus very active was 2.2 (1.3–3.8). Risk was also related to smoking; the RR in smokers of 1–20 cigarettes a day versus never smokers was 1.2 (0.7–2.3), and in smokers of more than 20 cigarettes a day, the RR was 2.3 (1.3–4.2). The RR in morbidly obese (body-mass index ≥ 35 kg/m2) compared with normal weight persons was 2.3 (1.1–4.9), but risk was not increased for those classified as overweight or obese. Obesity risk appeared largely mediated by diabetes and hypertension, whereas physical inactivity risk was only partly explained by these factors, and smoking risk was independent of them. Alcohol consumption was not related to chronic kidney disease. Conclusions These data suggest that physical inactivity, smoking and morbid obesity contribute to the risk of chronic kidney disease.

Risk HLA-DQA1 and PLA(2)R1 alleles in idiopathic membranous nephropathy.

BACKGROUND Idiopathic membranous nephropathy is a major cause of the nephrotic syndrome in adults, but its etiologic basis is not fully understood. We investigated the genetic basis of biopsy-proven cases of idiopathic membranous nephropathy in a white population. METHODS We performed independent genomewide association studies of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy from three populations of white ancestry (75 French, 146 Dutch, and 335 British patients). The patients were compared with racially matched control subjects; population stratification and quality controls were carried out according to standard criteria. Associations were calculated by means of a chi-square basic allele test; the threshold for significance was adjusted for multiple comparisons (with the Bonferroni method). RESULTS In a joint analysis of data from the 556 patients studied (398 men), we identified significant alleles at two genomic loci associated with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. Chromosome 2q24 contains the gene encoding M-type phospholipase A(2) receptor (PLA(2)R1) (SNP rs4664308, P=8.6×10(-29)), previously shown to be the target of an autoimmune response. Chromosome 6p21 contains the gene encoding HLA complex class II HLA-DQ alpha chain 1 (HLA-DQA1) (SNP rs2187668, P=8.0×10(-93)). The association with HLA-DQA1 was significant in all three populations (P=1.8×10(-9), P=5.6×10(-27), and P=5.2×10(-36) in the French, Dutch, and British groups, respectively). The odds ratio for idiopathic membranous nephropathy with homozygosity for both risk alleles was 78.5 (95% confidence interval, 34.6 to 178.2). CONCLUSIONS An HLA-DQA1 allele on chromosome 6p21 is most closely associated with idiopathic membranous nephropathy in persons of white ancestry. This allele may facilitate an autoimmune response against targets such as variants of PLA2R1. Our findings suggest a basis for understanding this disease and illuminate how adaptive immunity is regulated by HLA.

Timing of Onset of CKD-Related Metabolic Complications

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) guidelines recommend evaluating patients with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) for complications, but little evidence supports the use of a single GFR threshold for all metabolic disorders. We used data from the NephroTest cohort, including 1038 adult patients who had stages 2 through 5 CKD and were not on dialysis, to study the occurrence of metabolic complications. GFR was measured using renal clearance of (51)Cr-EDTA (mGFR) and estimated using two equations derived from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study. As mGFR decreased from 60 to 90 to <20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), the prevalence of hyperparathyroidism increased from 17 to 85%, anemia from 8 to 41%, hyperphosphatemia from 1 to 30%, metabolic acidosis from 2 to 39%, and hyperkalemia from 2 to 42%. Factors most strongly associated with metabolic complications, independent of mGFR, were younger age for acidosis and hyperphosphatemia, presence of diabetes for acidosis, diabetic kidney disease for anemia, and both male gender and the use of inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin system for hyperkalemia. mGFR thresholds for detecting complications with 90% sensitivity were 50, 44, 40, 39, and 37 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) for hyperparathyroidism, anemia, acidosis, hyperkalemia, and hyperphosphatemia, respectively. Analysis using estimated GFR produced similar results. In summary, this study describes the onset of CKD-related complications at different levels of GFR; anemia and hyperparathyroidism occur earlier than acidosis, hyperkalemia, and hyperphosphatemia.

A clinical score to predict 6-month prognosis in elderly patients starting dialysis for end-stage renal disease.

AIM The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic score for 6-month mortality in elderly patients starting dialysis for end-stage renal disease. METHODS Using data from the French Rein registry, we developed a prognostic score in a training sample of 2500 patients aged 75 years or older who started dialysis between 2002 and 2006, which we validated in a similar sample of 1642 patients. Multivariate logistic regression with 500 bootstrap samples allowed us to select risk factors from 19 demographic and baseline clinical variables. RESULTS The overall 6-month mortality was 19%. Age was not associated with early mortality. Nine risk factors were selected and points assigned for the score were as follows: body mass index <18.5 kg/m2 (2 points), diabetes (1), congestive heart failure stages III to IV (2), peripheral vascular disease stages III to IV (2), dysrhythmia (1), active malignancy (1), severe behavioural disorder (2), total dependency for transfers (3) and unplanned dialysis (2). The median score was 2. Mortality rates ranged from 8% in the lowest risk group (0 point) to 70% in the highest risk group (> or =9 points) and 17% in the median group (2 points). Seventeen percent of all deaths occurred after withdrawal from dialysis, ranging from 0% for a score of 0-1 to 15% for a score of 7 or higher. CONCLUSIONS This simple clinical score effectively predicts short-term prognosis among elderly patients starting dialysis. It should help to illuminate clinical decision making, but cannot be used to withhold dialysis. It ought to only be used by nephrologists to facilitate the discussion with the patients and their families.

Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without hypertension

BACKGROUND Hypertension is the most prevalent comorbidity in individuals with chronic kidney disease. However, whether the association of the kidney disease measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, with mortality or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) differs by hypertensive status is unknown. METHODS We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and ESRD associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without hypertension. FINDINGS We analysed data for 45 cohorts (25 general population, seven high-risk, and 13 chronic kidney disease) with 1,127,656 participants, 364,344 of whom had hypertension. Low eGFR and high albuminuria were associated with mortality irrespective of hypertensive status in the general population and high-risk cohorts. All-cause mortality risk was 1·1-1·2 times higher in individuals with hypertension than in those without hypertension at preserved eGFR. A steeper relative risk gradient in individuals without hypertension than in those with hypertension at eGFR range 45-75 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) led to much the same mortality risk at lower eGFR. With a reference eGFR of 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) in each group to explicitly assess interaction, adjusted HR for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) was 1·77 (95% CI 1·57-1·99) in individuals without hypertension versus 1·24 (1·11-1·39) in those with hypertension (p for overall interaction=0·0003). Similarly, for albumin-creatinine ratio of 300 mg/g (vs 5 mg/g), HR was 2·30 (1·98-2·68) in individuals without hypertension versus 2·08 (1·84-2·35) in those with hypertension (p for overall interaction=0·019). We recorded much the same results for cardiovascular mortality. The associations of eGFR and albuminuria with ESRD, however, did not differ by hypertensive status. Results for chronic kidney disease cohorts were similar to those for general and high-risk population cohorts. INTERPRETATION Chronic kidney disease should be regarded as at least an equally relevant risk factor for mortality and ESRD in individuals without hypertension as it is in those with hypertension. FUNDING US National Kidney Foundation.

Discovery of new risk loci for IgA nephropathy implicates genes involved in immunity against intestinal pathogens

We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of IgA nephropathy (IgAN), the most common form of glomerulonephritis, with discovery and follow-up in 20,612 individuals of European and East Asian ancestry. We identified six new genome-wide significant associations, four in ITGAM-ITGAX, VAV3 and CARD9 and two new independent signals at HLA-DQB1 and DEFA. We replicated the nine previously reported signals, including known SNPs in the HLA-DQB1 and DEFA loci. The cumulative burden of risk alleles is strongly associated with age at disease onset. Most loci are either directly associated with risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) or maintenance of the intestinal epithelial barrier and response to mucosal pathogens. The geospatial distribution of risk alleles is highly suggestive of multi-locus adaptation, and genetic risk correlates strongly with variation in local pathogens, particularly helminth diversity, suggesting a possible role for host–intestinal pathogen interactions in shaping the genetic landscape of IgAN.

Age and comorbidity may explain the paradoxical association of an early dialysis start with poor survival

Starting patients on dialysis early has been increasing in incidence in several countries. However, some studies have questioned its utility, finding a counter-intuitive effect of increased mortality when dialysis was started at a higher estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). To examine this issue in more detail we measured mortality hazard ratios associated with Modification of Diet in Renal Disease eGFR at dialysis initiation for 11,685 patients from the French REIN Registry, with sequential adjustment for a number of covariates. The eGFR was analyzed both quantitatively by 5-ml/min per 1.73 m(2) increments and by demi-decile (i.e., 5 percentiles of the distribution); the 15th demi-decile, including values around 10 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), was our reference point. The patients more likely to begin dialysis at a higher eGFR were older male patients; had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or low body mass index and level of albuminemia; or were started with peritoneal dialysis. During a median follow-up of 21.9 months, 3945 patients died. The 2-year crude survival decreased from 79 to 46%, with increasing eGFR from less than 5 to over 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Each 5-ml/min/1.73 m(2) increase in eGFR was associated with a 40% increase in crude mortality risk, which weakened to 9%, but remained statistically significant after adjusting for the above covariates. Analysis by demi-decile showed only the highest to be at significantly higher risk. Hence we found that age and patient condition strongly determine the decision to start dialysis and may explain most of the inverse association between eGFR and survival.

The epidemic of aging in renal replacement therapy: an update on elderly patients and their outcomes

BACKGROUND In the past 2 decades, a rapid growth has occurred in the number of patients over 65 years of age accepted for renal replacement therapy (RRT) with an increasing need for dialysis resources as a consequence. The aim of this study is to describe the trends in incidence, treatment and outcome of RRT of these elderly patients included in the new ERA-EDTA Registry database. METHODS Data from 6 national renal registries have been included for the period 1985 - 1999, comprising data of 18,920 elderly patients starting RRT. We used Cox-proportional hazards regression to predict patient and technique survival. RESULTS The incidence and prevalence of RRT showed a 4- to 5-fold increase over the period, resulting in 48% of the new patients being older than 65 years in 1999. However, the rates varied considerably between countries. The 2-year patient survival was 51% in dialysis patients. Mortality due to social causes increased with age. Multivariate analysis showed no change with time in patient survival on dialysis, but the risk of death following a first renal allograft between 1995 and 1999 was reduced by 31%, compared with the 1985 - 1989 time period (RR 0.69; 95% CI: 0.54 - 0.90). The relative risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure was more than doubled in the 1995 - 1999 cohort compared to the 1985 - 1989 cohort (RR 2.38; 95% CI: 1.89 - 3.01), with the highest technique failure rate in the first 2 years of the 1995 - 1999 cohort. CONCLUSIONS The number of elderly patients receiving RRT is rising rapidly. Patient survival on dialysis has been stable over the last 15 years, whereas transplant outcome has improved. The increased peritoneal dialysis technique failure and the high mortality due to social causes in the elderly age groups require further investigation. The challenge of the years ahead is to provide this life-prolonging therapy to all patients who need it in such a way that it improves quality of life and at a cost that a society can afford.