Bengt G. Mölleryd

Decoupling of revenues and traffic - Is there a revenue gap for mobile broadband?

Mobile broadband is increasing rapidly both when it comes to traffic and the number of subscriptions. Operators are challenged by the fact that revenues from mobile broadband are de-coupled from the traffic. In this paper we will analyze if this de-coupling results in a “revenue gap” for the combined voice and mobile broadband business and, if this is the case, how significant the gap is. We analyze a country and operator case where the increasing user demand requires network upgrades. The impact of increasing traffic, revenues and costs is analyzed in terms of profit margin for the voice and mobile broadband businesses. The results show that the overall profit for the modeled operator decreases due to declining voice revenues. The contribution from mobile broadband depends heavily on the amount of traffic growth and prices.

Mobile broadband expansion calls for more spectrum or more base stations: analysis of the value of spectrum and the role of spectrum aggregation

This paper analyses the marginal value of spectrum which includes engineering and strategic value. The analysis of the engineering value shows that operators that are able to obtain more spectrum than their competitors, and pursue network sharing and spectrum aggregation have a competitive advantage as they have the lowest production cost, highest margin and highest capacity when usage takes off. The analysis of the strategic value shows that the level of offered data rates is pivotal for operators’ marketing of mobile broadband services and that network sharing in combination with spectrum aggregation has a positive impact on the strategic value. Altogether, the willingness to pay for spectrum in recent auctions has been lower than the estimated marginal value in this analysis. However, it is likely to increase when a broad range of smart mobile devices and mobile broadband are ubiquitously used as this will put unprecedented pressure on mobile networks increasing the demand for spectrum.