Benjamin Bernard

Geophysical Footprints of Cotopaxi’s Unrest and Minor Eruptions in 2015: An Opportunity to Test Scientific and Community Preparedness

Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador, experienced notable restlessness in 2015 that was a major deviation from its normal background activity. Starting in April and continuing through November 2015 strong seismic activity, infrasound registry, hikes in SO2 degassing and flank deformation with small displacements were some of the geophysical anomalies that were registered. Obvious superficial changes, such as small hydromagmatic eruptions, emission of vapor and ash columns, thermal hotspots around the crater and in nearby orifices and exacerbated glacier melting were also observed. Our contribution provides an overview of the 2015 Cotopaxi unrest by presenting the patterns of geophysical data and the sequence of events produced by the volcano. Cotopaxi’s last important VEI 4 eruption was in 1877. Then it had devastating effects because of the transit of huge lahars down 3 major drainages. Comparatively, the 2015 activity never surpassed a magnitude VEI 2 and principally produced limited hydromagmatic explosions and semi-continuous low energy emissions and light ashfalls. Given the potential of major destruction from a large Cotopaxi eruption it is important to understand the geophysical fingerprints that characterized the 2015 episode with an eye to identifying onset of future restless periods. Overall, the monitoring activities, the data interpretation, formulation of reasonable eruptive scenarios, and finally, the preparation of a stream of constant information being relayed to concerned authorities and the public, was a real test of the IGEPN’s capacity to deal with a complicated eruption situation whose outcome was not apparent at the beginning, but which concluded in a very small eruptive episode.

Evolution of the 2015 Cotopaxi Eruption Revealed by Combined Geochemical and Seismic Observations

Through integration of multiple data streams to monitor volcanic unrest scientists are able to make more robust eruption forecast and to obtain a more holistic interpretation of volcanic systems. We examined gas emission and gas geochemistry and seismic and petrologic data recorded during the 2015 unrest of Cotopaxi (Ecuador) in order to decipher the origin and temporal evolution of this eruption. Identification of families of similar seismic events and the use of seismic amplitude ratios reveals temporal changes in volcanic processes. SO2 (300 to 24,000 t/d), BrO/SO2 (5–10 × 10−5), SO2/HCl (5.8 ± 4.8 and 6.6 ± 3.0), and CO2/SO2 (0.6 to 2.1) measured throughout the eruption indicate a shallow magmatic source. Bulk ash and glass chemistry indicate a homogenous andesitic (SiO2 wt % = 56.94 ± 0.25) magma having undergone extensive S-exsolution and degassing during ascent. These data lead us to interpret this eruption as a magma intrusion and ascend to shallow levels. The intrusion progressively interacted with the hydrothermal system, boiled off water, and produced hydromagmatic explosions. A small volume of this intrusion continued to fragment and produced episodic ash emissions until it was sufficiently degassed and rheologically stiff. Based on the 470 kt of measured SO2 we estimate that ~65.3 × 106 m3 of magma were required to supply the emitted gases. This volume exceeds the volume of erupted juvenile material by a factor of 50. This result emphasizes the importance of careful monitoring of Cotopaxi to identify the intrusion of a new batch of magma, which could rejuvenate the nonerupted material.