Benjamin C. Sun

Predictors of 30-Day Serious Events in Older Patients With Syncope

STUDY OBJECTIVEnWe identify predictors of 30-day serious events after syncope in older adults.nnnMETHODSnWe reviewed the medical records of older adults (age > or =60 years) who presented with syncope or near syncope to one of 3 emergency departments (EDs) between 2002 and 2005. Our primary outcome was occurrence of a predefined serious event within 30 days after ED evaluation. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of 30-day serious events.nnnRESULTSnOf 3,727 potentially eligible patients, 2,871 (77%) met all eligibility criteria. We excluded an additional 287 patients who received a diagnosis of a serious clinical condition while in the ED. In the final study cohort (n=2,584), we identified 173 (7%) patients who experienced a 30-day serious event. High-risk predictors included age greater than 90 years, male sex, history of an arrhythmia, triage systolic blood pressure greater than 160 mm Hg, abnormal ECG result, and abnormal troponin I level. A low-risk predictor was a complaint of near syncope rather than syncope. A risk score, generated by summing high-risk predictors and subtracting the low-risk predictor, can stratify patients into low- (event rate 2.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4% to 3.6%), intermediate- (event rate 6.3%; 95% CI 5.1% to 7.5%), and high-risk (event rate 20%; 95% CI 15% to 25%) groups.nnnCONCLUSIONnWe identified predictors of 30-day serious events after syncope in adults aged 60 years and greater. A simple score was able to stratify these patients into distinct risk groups and, if externally validated, might have the potential to aid ED decisionmaking.

Hospital Determinants of Emergency Department Left Without Being Seen Rates

STUDY OBJECTIVEnThe proportion of patients who leave without being seen in the emergency department (ED) is an outcome-oriented measure of impaired access to emergency care and represents the failure of an emergency care delivery system to meet its goals of providing care to those most in need. Little is known about variation in the amount of left without being seen or about hospital-level determinants. Such knowledge is necessary to target hospital-level interventions to improve access to emergency care. We seek to determine whether hospital-level socioeconomic status case mix or hospital structural characteristics are predictive of ED left without being seen rates.nnnMETHODSnWe performed a cross-sectional study of all acute-care, nonfederal hospitals in California that operated an ED in 2007, using data from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development database and the US census. Our outcome of interest was whether a visit to a given hospital ED resulted in left without being seen. The proportion of left without being seen was measured by the number of left without being seen cases out of the total number of visits.nnnRESULTSnWe studied 9.2 million ED visits to 262 hospitals in California. The percentage of left without being seen varied greatly over hospitals, ranging from 0% to 20.3%, with a median percentage of 2.6%. In multivariable analyses adjusting for hospital-level socioeconomic status case mix, visitors to EDs with a higher proportion of low-income and poorly insured patients experienced a higher risk of left without being seen. We found that the odds of an ED visit resulting in left without being seen increased by a factor of 1.15 for each 10-percentage-point increase in poorly insured patients, and odds of left without being seen decreased by a factor of 0.86 for each

Patterns and Predictors of Short-Term Death After Emergency Department Discharge

10,000 increase in household income. When hospital structural characteristics were added to the model, county ownership, trauma center designation, and teaching program affiliation were positively associated with increased probability of left without being seen (odds ratio 2.09; 1.62, and 2.14, respectively), and these factors attenuated the association with insurance status.nnnCONCLUSIONnVisitors to different EDs experience a large variation in their probability of left without being seen, and visitors to hospitals serving a high proportion of low-income and poorly insured patients are at disproportionately higher risk of leaving without being seen. Our findings suggest that there is room for substantial improvement in this outcome, and regional interventions can be targeted toward certain at-risk hospitals to improve access to emergency care.

Older Age Predicts Short‐Term, Serious Events After Syncope

STUDY OBJECTIVEnThe emergency department (ED) is an inherently high-risk setting. Early death after an ED evaluation is a rare and devastating outcome; understanding it can potentially help improve patient care and outcomes. Using administrative data from an integrated health system, we describe characteristics and predictors of patients who experienced 7-day death after ED discharge.nnnMETHODSnAdministrative data from 12 hospitals were used to identify death after discharge in adults aged 18 year or older within 7 days of ED presentation from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2008. Patients who were nonmembers of the health system, in hospice care, or treated at out-of-network EDs were excluded. Predictors of 7-day postdischarge death were identified with multivariable logistic regression.nnnRESULTSnThe study cohort contained a total of 475,829 members, with 728,312 discharges from Kaiser Permanente Southern California EDs in 2007 and 2008. Death within 7 days of discharge occurred in 357 cases (0.05%). Increasing age, male sex, and number of preexisting comorbidities were associated with increased risk of death. The top 3 primary discharge diagnoses predictive of 7-day death after discharge included noninfectious lung disease (odds ratio [OR] 7.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9 to 17.4), renal disease (OR 5.6; 95% CI 2.2 to 14.2), and ischemic heart disease (OR 3.8; 95% CI 1.0 to 13.6).nnnCONCLUSIONnOur study suggests that 50 in 100,000 patients in the United States die within 7 days of discharge from an ED. To our knowledge, our study is the first to identify potentially high-risk discharge diagnoses in patients who experience a short-term death after discharge.

Predictors of Short-Term (Seven-Day) Cardiac Outcomes After Emergency Department Visit for Syncope

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between age and 14‐day serious events after an emergency department (ED) visit for syncope.

Effect of an education kiosk on patient knowledge about rapid HIV screening.

Syncope is a common reason for emergency department (ED) visits, and patients are often admitted to exclude syncope of cardiovascular origin. Population-based data on patterns and predictors of cardiac outcomes may improve decision-making. Our objective was to identify patterns and predictors of short-term cardiac outcomes in ED patients with syncope. Administrative data from an integrated health system of 11 Southern California EDs were used to identify cardiac outcomes after ED presentation for syncope from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2005. Syncope and cause of death were identified by codes from the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision. Cardiac outcomes included cardiac death and hospitalization or procedure consistent with ischemic heart disease, valvular disease, or arrhythmia. Predictors of cardiac outcomes were identified through multivariate logistic regression. There were 35,330 adult subjects who accounted for 39,943 ED visits for syncope. Risk of cardiac outcome sharply decreased following the 7 days after syncope. A 7-day cardiac outcome occurred in 893 cases (3%). Positive predictors of 7-day cardiac outcomes included age > or =60 years, male gender, congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cardiac arrhythmia, and valvular heart disease. Negative predictors included dementia, pacemaker, coronary revascularization, and cerebrovascular disease. There was an age-dependent relation between 7-day cardiac outcomes and arrhythmia and valvular disease, with younger patients (<60 years of age) having greater risk of an event compared to their same-age counterparts. In conclusion, ED decision-making should focus on risk of cardiac event in the first 7 days after syncope and special attention should be given to younger patients with cardiac co-morbidities.

Impact of a kiosk educational module on HIV screening rates and patient knowledge.

Patient education is an important part of routine HIV screening. In a pilot study, we assessed the effect of a computer kiosk education module on patient knowledge about routine HIV screening. A systematic sample of walk-in clinic patients completed a questionnaire before and after using the education module. The primary outcome was a composite nine-point knowledge score. Secondary outcomes included willingness to undergo HIV screening and patient satisfaction. Of 185 patients who were eligible to participate, 100 completed the study. The median duration of kiosk interaction was 3.9 min. The median knowledge score increased from 7 to 8 (P < 0.0001) after viewing the module. There was no significant change in the proportion of patients who were interested in HIV screening. The majority of patients expressed excellent (38%) or very good (39%) satisfaction with the kiosk module. The results suggest that a computer kiosk can deliver brief and targeted education to improve knowledge about HIV screening.

External Validation of the San Francisco Syncope Rule

We assessed the effect of a kiosk educational module on HIV screening rates and patient knowledge about HIV testing. The evaluation was performed in a walk-in clinic offering routine HIV screening. During alternating two-week periods, patients were referred either to view a kiosk-based, educational module prior to receiving usual care, or the kiosk module was turned off and no alterations to care processes were made. The primary outcome was HIV testing rate. The secondary outcome was knowledge about HIV rapid screening, as measured with a questionnaire. There were 71 patients in the kiosk periods and 79 patients in the usual-care periods. The overall HIV testing rate was 41%. The kiosk period was not associated with greater odds of HIV testing (OR 0.7; 95% CI: 0.4–1.4). In 44 patients who completed the knowledge survey, the kiosk group was strongly associated with increased knowledge (predicted increase in knowledge score: 1.3; 95% CI: 036–2.1). The brief kiosk educational module did not improve HIV screening rates, but it increased overall patient knowledge about HIV testing.