Benjamin Habib

North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and the maintenance of the Songun system

Abstract North Korea is unlikely to relinquish its nuclear programme because of its importance to the political economy of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) state and the perpetuation of the Kim regime. Two observations give rise to this conclusion: firstly, the development of North Koreas nuclear programme has been a long-term project spanning several decades. At no stage has Pyongyang shown a commitment to its dismantlement. Secondly, denuclearisation negotiations have followed a cyclical pattern in which the North has provoked crises to make new demands and gain leverage in negotiations. By inference, it is clear that the nuclear programme has great intrinsic value to Pyongyang. This paper argues that the nuclear programme has value as a bargaining chip in international diplomacy to extract economic inputs for its moribund economy, in domestic politics as vehicle for bureaucratic interests and as a rallying symbol of the countrys hyper-nationalist ideology, as well as its role as a defensive deterrent and important cog in Pyongyangs offensive asymmetric war strategy. For these reasons, the Kim regime is unlikely to seriously entertain nuclear disarmament.

The enforcement problem in Resolution 2094 and the United Nations Security Council sanctions regime: sanctioning North Korea

ABSTRACT This article deconstructs United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2094 through the preambulatory statements, objectives, obligations, and implementation and enforcement provisions of UNSC Resolution 2094. The article proceeds in three parts. First, it reviews the academic literature on UNSC sanctions and their application in the North Korean case. Second, it deconstructs UNSC Resolution 2094 according to the common structural components of international legal instruments to assess the level of congruence between the objectives of UNSC Resolution 2094, its enforcement mechanisms and outcomes. Third, it explores the weaknesses of UNSC Resolution 2094, focusing on the gap between the objectives and enforcement mechanisms found in the resolution. The inability of the UNSC sanctions regime to prevent North Korea reaching the cusp of becoming a nuclear weapons power is evidence of the international communitys weak leverage over Pyongyang, a situation arising from the vulnerability of South Korea to a North Korean attack and the cross-cutting strategic priorities of China; the absence of economic linkages between the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and the primary sanctions-sender state in the USA; and North Koreas commitment to a nuclear weapons capability as the foundation of its medium-term economic development strategy, its institutional governance structure and associated ideological commitments.

Social Convection and the Everyday Transformation of North Korea: A Review Essay

North Korea is a case study in social convection, where social change processes are bubbling up from the grassroots level to transform North Korean society by changing the relationship of individual North Koreans to the economic and political systems in which they live. The “everyday” has become the site of this social transformation at the nexus between the individual, the state and external forces. There are a number of studies that have examined the grassroots transformation of North Korean society. Daniel Andrei Lankov (2007), for example, contends that many North Koreans have managed to transcend the tyranny of their oppressive environment, creating subtle but perceptible changes in the social fabric that are morphing the Kim regime’s unique brand of Stalinism into something quite new. Social change in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has generally been interpreted in terms of its implications for the stability of the ruling Kim regime (Kihl & Kim, 2006). Analysing North Korea from the perspective of the ruling regime alone is a mistake, as the most transformative changes shaping North Korean government and society are taking place on the ground in the everyday lives of the people. From three different perspectives, the three books reviewed here make important contributions to understanding the processes of convective social change in North Korea, highlighting the importance of the everyday in the governance of the DPRK state. In so doing, they prompt a questioning of foreign policy prescriptions for North Korea that overlook the grassroots as the site of the most dynamic transformation within the governance structure of the DPRK state. Suzy Kim’s Everyday Life in the North Korean Revolution, 1945–1950 offers an examination of the North Korean Revolution through changes to the daily lives of North Korean villagers during the period between the liberation of Korea from Japan in 1945 and the onset of the Korean War in 1950. During this period, everyday life took on the characteristics of a specific socialist articulation of the everyday that challenged both the colonial conception of modernity imported by the Japanese and the capitalist notion of modernity that was becoming infused through American influence south of the 38th parallel. Everyday Life in the North Korean Revolution builds upon works such as Bruce Cumings’ two-volume epic The Origins of the Korean War, Andrei Lankov’s From Stalin to Kim Il-sung: The Formation of North Korea from 1945–1960, Hassig and Oh’s The Hidden People of North Korea and Charles Armstrong’s The North Korean Revolution, 1945–1950. Where Armstrong focuses on the political, economic, cultural and social changes resulting from the implantation of Marxist-Leninist doctrine at a national level, Kim’s analysis focuses on revolutionary praxis at the village level. The book, which is one of the first social histories of North Korea during the immediate post-liberation period, is based on source material

The Implications of Climate Vulnerability for North Korean Regime Stability

This paper fuses theoretical models of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to critically examine the “muddle through” thesis of regime stability in North Korea, put forward by Marcus Noland, in the context of global climate change. Literature on regime stability in North Korea has reached a consensus Kim Jong-il’s regime will maintain power by “muddling through,” making ad hoc adjustments as localised problems arise. Climate change is a new variable effecting regime perpetuation that has not been discussed in the academic literature. Climate hazards are likely to disrupt the North’s agricultural sector and the country’s food security, leading to erosion of the state’s institutions. In the medium term, predicted climate change impacts on North Korea include decreasing crop yield from the agricultural sector, changing precipitation cycles, and increasing incidence of extreme weather events. North Korea has limited capacity to absorb and adapt to climate hazards. The state is already weakened from ten years of famine and economic isolation, and is inhibited by a rigid totalitarian political system, and crumbling infrastructure. Over time, increasing food shortage may lead to greater reliance on external aid, increased corruption, internal displacement of people, refugee exodus into China, rejection of official ideology, erosion of coercive institutions and even withdrawal of elite support for the regime.