Benjamin Kasenda

Prevalence, Characteristics, and Publication of Discontinued Randomized Trials

IMPORTANCE The discontinuation of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) raises ethical concerns and often wastes scarce research resources. The epidemiology of discontinued RCTs, however, remains unclear. OBJECTIVES To determine the prevalence, characteristics, and publication history of discontinued RCTs and to investigate factors associated with RCT discontinuation due to poor recruitment and with nonpublication. DESIGN AND SETTING Retrospective cohort of RCTs based on archived protocols approved by 6 research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. We recorded trial characteristics and planned recruitment from included protocols. Last follow-up of RCTs was April 27, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Completion status, reported reasons for discontinuation, and publication status of RCTs as determined by correspondence with the research ethics committees, literature searches, and investigator surveys. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 11.6 years (range, 8.8-12.6 years), 253 of 1017 included RCTs were discontinued (24.9% [95% CI, 22.3%-27.6%]). Only 96 of 253 discontinuations (37.9% [95% CI, 32.0%-44.3%]) were reported to ethics committees. The most frequent reason for discontinuation was poor recruitment (101/1017; 9.9% [95% CI, 8.2%-12.0%]). In multivariable analysis, industry sponsorship vs investigator sponsorship (8.4% vs 26.5%; odds ratio [OR], 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15-0.43]; P < .001) and a larger planned sample size in increments of 100 (-0.7%; OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .04) were associated with lower rates of discontinuation due to poor recruitment. Discontinued trials were more likely to remain unpublished than completed trials (55.1% vs 33.6%; OR, 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.43]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this sample of trials based on RCT protocols from 6 research ethics committees, discontinuation was common, with poor recruitment being the most frequently reported reason. Greater efforts are needed to ensure the reporting of trial discontinuation to research ethics committees and the publication of results of discontinued trials.

Immunochemotherapy with rituximab, methotrexate, procarbazine, and lomustine for primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) in the elderly

BACKGROUND Primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) is an aggressive extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphoma confined to the central nervous system. In this article, we report the results of a pilot trial adding rituximab to the established regimen consisting of methotrexate, procarbazine, and lomustine (R-MCP). DESIGN AND METHODS PCNSL patients ≥65 years without Karnofsky performance score (KPS) limit were included. R-MCP regimen consisted of rituximab (375 mg/m(2) i.v. on days -6, 1, 15, and 29), methotrexate (3 g/m(2) i.v., days 2, 16, and 30) followed by folinic rescue, procarbazine (60 mg/m(2) orally, days 2-11), and lomustine (110 mg/m(2) orally, day 2). A maximum of three 43-day cycles were applied. Primary end point was response to treatment obtained by magnetic resonance imaging. Secondary end points were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS Twenty-eight patients were included (median age 75, median KPS 60%). Best documented response: complete remission in 18 of 28 (64%), partial remission in 5 of 28 (18%), stable disease in 1 of 28 (4%), and progressive disease in 2 of 28 (7%) patients. Response was not assessed in two patients. Two treatment-associated deaths were observed. After a median follow-up of 36 months, the 3-year PFS and OS was 31%. CONCLUSION R-MCP regimen is well tolerated and active in elderly patients with newly diagnosed PCNSL.

Serum lactate dehydrogenase as an early marker for outcome in patients treated with anti-PD-1 therapy in metastatic melanoma

Background:Treatment with programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) antibodies is associated with high response rates in patients with advanced melanoma. Reliable markers for early response and outcome are still sparse.Methods:We evaluated 66 consecutive patients with advanced/metastatic melanoma treated with nivolumab or pembrolizumab between 2013 and 2014. The main objectives of this study were to investigate whether, first, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) at baseline (normal vs above the upper limit of normal) correlates with overall survival (OS), and, second, whether the change of LDH during treatment predicts response before the first scan and OS in patients with an elevated baseline LDH.Results:After a median follow-up of 9 months, patients with an elevated baseline LDH (N=34) had a significantly shorter OS compared with patients with normal LDH (N=32; 6-month OS: 60.8% vs 81.6% and 12-month OS: 44.2% vs 71.5% (log-rank P=0.0292). In those 34 patients with elevated baseline LDH, the relative change during treatment was significantly associated with an objective response on the first scan: the 11 (32%) patients with partial remission had a mean reduction of −27.3% from elevated baseline LDH. In contrast, patients with progressive disease (N=15) had a mean increase of +39%. Patients with a relative increase over 10% from elevated baseline LDH had a significantly shorter OS compared with patients with ⩽10% change (4.3 vs 15.7 months, log-rank P<0.00623).Conclusions:LDH could be a useful marker at baseline and during treatment to predict early response or progression in patients with advanced melanoma who receive anti-PD-1 therapy.

Meta-analyses: what they can and cannot do

Meta-analyses overcome the limitation of small sample sizes or rare outcomes by pooling results from a number of individual studies to generate a single best estimate. As long as a meta-analysis is not limited by poor quality of included trials, unexplainable heterogeneity and/or reporting bias of individual trials, meta-analyses can be instrumental in reliably demonstrating benefit or harm of an intervention when results of individual randomised controlled trials are conflicting or inconclusive. Therefore meta-analyses should be conducted as part of a systematic review, i.e., a systematic approach to answer a focused clinical question. Important features of a systematic review are a comprehensive, reproducible search for primary studies, selection of studies using clear and transparent eligibility criteria, standardised critical appraisal of studies for quality, and investigation of heterogeneity among included studies. Cumulative meta-analysis may prevent delays in the introduction of effective treatments and may allow for early detection of harmful effects of interventions. As opposed to meta-analysis based on aggregate study data, individual patient data meta-analyses offer the advantage to use standardised criteria across trials and reliably investigate subgroup effects of interventions. Network meta-analysis allows the integration of data from direct and indirect comparisons in order to compare multiple treatments in a comprehensive analysis and determine the best treatment among several options. We conclude that meta-analysis has become a popular, versatile, and powerful tool. If rigorously conducted as part of a systematic review, it is essential for evidence-based decision making in clinical practice as well as on the health policy level.

Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: cohort study on trial protocols and journal publications

Objective To investigate the planning of subgroup analyses in protocols of randomised controlled trials and the agreement with corresponding full journal publications. Design Cohort of protocols of randomised controlled trial and subsequent full journal publications. Setting Six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. Data sources 894 protocols of randomised controlled trial involving patients approved by participating research ethics committees between 2000 and 2003 and 515 subsequent full journal publications. Results Of 894 protocols of randomised controlled trials, 252 (28.2%) included one or more planned subgroup analyses. Of those, 17 (6.7%) provided a clear hypothesis for at least one subgroup analysis, 10 (4.0%) anticipated the direction of a subgroup effect, and 87 (34.5%) planned a statistical test for interaction. Industry sponsored trials more often planned subgroup analyses compared with investigator sponsored trials (195/551 (35.4%) v 57/343 (16.6%), P<0.001). Of 515 identified journal publications, 246 (47.8%) reported at least one subgroup analysis. In 81 (32.9%) of the 246 publications reporting subgroup analyses, authors stated that subgroup analyses were prespecified, but this was not supported by 28 (34.6%) corresponding protocols. In 86 publications, authors claimed a subgroup effect, but only 36 (41.9%) corresponding protocols reported a planned subgroup analysis. Conclusions Subgroup analyses are insufficiently described in the protocols of randomised controlled trials submitted to research ethics committees, and investigators rarely specify the anticipated direction of subgroup effects. More than one third of statements in publications of randomised controlled trials about subgroup prespecification had no documentation in the corresponding protocols. Definitive judgments regarding credibility of claimed subgroup effects are not possible without access to protocols and analysis plans of randomised controlled trials.

First-line treatment and outcome of elderly patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL)—a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND To investigate prognosis and effects of first-line therapy in elderly primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS A systematic review of studies about first-line therapy in immunocompetent patients ≥60 years with PCNSL until 2014 and a meta-analysis of individual patient data from eligible studies and international collaborators were carried out. RESULTS We identified 20 eligible studies; from 13 studies, we obtained individual data of 405 patients, which were pooled with data of 378 additional patients (N = 783). Median age and Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) was 68 years (range: 60-90 years) and 60% (range: 10%-100%), respectively. Treatments varied greatly, 573 (73%) patients received high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX)-based therapy. A total of 276 patients received whole-brain radiotherapy (median 36 Gy, range 28.5-70 Gy). KPS ≥ 70% was the strongest prognostic factor for mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41-0.62]. After a median follow-up of 40 months, HD-MTX-based therapy was associated with improved survival (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.53-0.93). There was no difference between HD-MTX plus oral chemotherapy and more aggressive HD-MTX-based therapies (HR 1.39, 95% CI 0.90-2.15). Radiotherapy was associated with an improved survival, but correlated with an increased risk for neurological side-effects (odds ratio 5.23, 95% CI 2.33-11.74). CONCLUSIONS Elderly PCNSL patients benefit from HD-MTX-based therapy, especially if combined with oral alkylating agents. More aggressive HD-MTX protocols do not seem to improve outcome. WBRT may improve outcome, but is associated with increased risk for neurological side-effects. Prospective trials for elderly PCNSL patients are warranted.

Prognosis of patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma after high-dose chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation

High-dose chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation has been shown to be feasible and highly effective in newly diagnosed primary central nervous system lymphoma. In this retrospective multicenter study, we investigated prognosis and baseline risk factors in patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma who underwent this treatment approach. We retrospectively analyzed 105 immunocompetent patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma who underwent high-dose chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation with or without whole brain radiotherapy as first-line consolidation treated at 12 German centers between 1997 and 2011. We estimated survival rates and investigated the impact of age, performance status, serum lactate dehydrogenase level, and deep brain involvement on overall and progression-free survival. Patients were additionally categorized into three prognostic groups according to the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center prognostic model. After a median follow up of 47 months, median progression-free survival and overall survival was reached after 85 and 121 months; 2- and 5-year survival rates were 82% and 79%, respectively. The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center prognostic model did not predict survival. Only age revealed some evidence of prognostic relevance. Overall response rate was 95%; of those patients with progressive disease before high-dose chemotherapy, 7 of 20 achieved ongoing complete remission after therapy without whole brain radiation therapy. Transplantation-associated mortality was 2.8%. High-dose chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation is a highly effective and safe treatment modality for selected primary central nervous system lymphoma patients. Superiority compared to standard chemotherapy still warrants further investigation.

Prognostic score for patients with advanced melanoma treated with ipilimumab.

BACKGROUND Immunotherapies like the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 inhibitor ipilimumab show durable clinical benefit in patients with advanced melanoma. Reliable prognostic markers and risk scores in the era of immunotherapy are still lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS We collected characteristics and outcomes on 134 patients with metastatic melanoma treated with ipilimumab between 2011 and 2014 at a single centre. Cox regression including multivariable fractional polynomials was used to identify independent markers for overall survival (OS). Internal model validation was done using bootstrap procedures. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 16.1 months the median OS was 7.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5-9.8). Nineteen of 134 patients (14.2%) had tumour remissions, 16 partial and 3 complete; 75% had progressive disease. We identified three independent adverse factors for OS: elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status >0 (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.10-3.30), and number of organs involved (NOI) (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.22-1.86). To build an easy-to-apply risk score, we dichotomized LDH (>upper limit of normal) and NOI (>2) to built 3 prognostic groups: favourable (no adverse factors, N = 17), intermediate (1 adverse factor, N = 38), and poor prognosis (≥2 adverse factors, N = 73). Respective 12 and 18-month OS for the risk groups were: 85% and 73% (favourable), 41% and 29% (intermediate), and 12% and 6% (poor) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION We propose a simple prognostic score for survival in patients with advanced melanoma treated with ipilimumab using readily available clinical parameters.

Completion and publication rates of randomized controlled trials in surgery: an empirical study

OBJECTIVE To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

Learning from failure - rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

BackgroundRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs.Methods/DesignOur aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs.We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment.DiscussionOur study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.