Benjamin McLellan

Sustainability of Rare Earths—An Overview of the State of Knowledge

Rare Earths (RE) have been the focus of much attention in recent years as a consequence of a number of converging factors, prominent among which are: centralization of supply (in China), unique applications in high-end technologies particularly in the low-carbon energy industry, and global demand outstripping availability. Despite this focus, RE supply chain sustainability has not been examined in depth or in any systematic manner. This paper provides an initial review of RE sustainability considerations at present, including current initiatives to understand the research and development needs. The analysis highlights a broad range of areas needing consolidation with future research and calls for collaboration between industry and academia to understand the sustainability considerations of these critical elements in more depth.

Toward a CO2 zero emissions energy system in the Middle East region

ABSTRACT Climate change and energy security are global challenges requiring concerted attention and action by all of the world’s countries. Under these conditions, energy supplier and exporter countries in the Middle East region are experiencing further challenges, such as increasing domestic energy demand while energy exports have to concurrently be kept at high levels. Middle East countries process the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world and contribute a large fraction of the world’s CO2 emissions from the use of these as fuels both domestically and internationally. This paper addresses different policies that could dramatically change the future course of the Middle East region toward a zero CO2 emission energy system. To this aim, an integrated energy supply–demand model has been developed to analyze required commitments including renewable energy and energy efficiency targets and the potential of nuclear power, all of which should need to be considered in order to reduce CO2 emissions by 2100. The results indicate that nearly 43% of the global energy of the Middle East region can be supplied from non-fossil fuel resources in 2100.

The Minerals-Energy Nexus: Past, Present and Future

Minerals and energy have been highly intertwined throughout history, but are becoming even more so with two key emerging trends: the gradual declining grade and increasing depth and complexity of ores and the increasing demand for high-performance functional materials in energy technologies. This paper examines these trends from the perspective of eco-design, focusing on the competing requirements of energy for producing and processing minerals and the demand for minerals in energy technologies. One key element examined is recycling – its impact on supply and the opposing implications of miniaturisation for recyclability of energy technologies. Peak minerals are addressed in conjunction with the implications of nonconventional resources such as deep ocean deposits.

Long-Term Planning for Nuclear Power's Development in Japan for a Zero-Carbon Electricity Generation System by 2100

The realization of a zero-carbon electricity system is of vital importance to a future zero-carbon energy system and society. Nuclear power is expected to contribute to the realization of a zero-carbon electricity system much more than intermittent, complicated and costly renewable energy in the future in Japan. Therefore, in the present study, nuclear power development for a future zero-carbon energy system was studied through scenario analysis. The study was conducted in three steps to (i) estimate future electricity demand and electrical load pattern by 2100; (ii) determine the contribution of nuclear power to the electricity generation based on various constraints; and (iii) test the feasibility of the nuclear-based electricity system in term of supply-demand balance. An integrated computer software platform was developed to conduct the analyses. The analysis results show that Fukushima Accident will not affect nuclear development in Japan greatly from a long term viewpoint. Compared with 2005, the total electricity demand will increase by 50% to 2100. Nuclear power contributes 60%-100% of total electricity production and its capacity factor needs to be enhanced from the present 60-70% to 80-90%. The nuclear power can be supplied from advanced LWR, FBR even fusion technology.

Streamlining the use of legislated reporting to move to 'life of project' sustainability reporting

The minerals industry has made extensive efforts in sustainable development, and reporting of sustainability performance has been increasing. This paper examines the current role of legislated reporting, and the ways in which it can help streamline sustainability reporting, saving time and money. Two sets of sustainability metrics – the global reporting initiative (GRI) and the Institution of Chemical Engineers (IChemE) – are examined to demonstrate the coverage of sustainability reporting by legislated reporting. The paper also proposes the shifting of perspective from ‘life of mine’ to ‘life of project’ sustainability reporting. Greater use of legislated activities such as environmental impact assessments (EIAs) is described as a way of creating more useful, relevant and realistic sustainability reports. Through the use of these early phase activities to develop contextualised sustainability metrics, the sustainability contribution of a project can be more effectively measured across the life cycle and currently under-utilised information can be used more fully.

Participatory Design as a Tool for Effective Sustainable Energy Transitions

Sustainable energy systems and transitions towards such systems are often discussed among experts or high-level stakeholders, but rarely involve individuals from the general community. This paper argues that it is important for such stakeholders to be engaged in the visioning or formation of plans for future energy systems in order for effective transitions to take place. The results of a number of related studies and techniques for achieving such visions are presented. Furthermore, research has indicated that there is a need to effectively nurture niche actors in order to provide the seeds of future sustainable regimes with the possibility to emerge. A discussion of how policy could promote this will also be described.

Energy Demand Forecast for South East Asia Region: An Econometric Approach with Relation to the Energy Per Capita “Curve”

This paper will discuss the forecast of final energy consumption from each member country up to 2100. Almost 40 years (1971–2010) of data series of energy consumption had been collected from various sources. Econometrics was then used to predict the energy consumption, based on the population projections of the United Nations (UN) (medium scenario). An energy intensity index (KTOe per capita) from various developed countries was also used (as a reference) in order to measure the potential limits of ASEAN member countries’ energy consumption. A novel approach was taken to modifying standard econometrics approaches with further limiting factors also being defined, such as land to population ratio, population trend, total land area, demographic characteristics and landscape (inland, archipelago, landlocked etc.).

An Optimization Supply Model for Crude Oil and Natural Gas in the Middle East

Crude oil and natural gas are major contributors to the world economy. Most of the Middle East countries are the main participants in the world energy because of their reserves, supplies and also trade markets. In this investigation, a model of optimal oil and natural gas supply has been developed for the Middle East region including main producers such as Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain. To this aim, Middle East region is supposed to be organized in the form of a firm and appears in the market that oriented towards establishing an effective energy system to produce oil and gas with minimum costs subject to satisfying technical, institutional and economical constraints. The model is used to prepare a projection on oil and gas supply up to 2030. According to the results, oil production is expected to increase in the Middle East region to meet growth in consumption. It should be expected to rise by about 30 Mbbld by 2030. Also, the Middle East’s share in global gas production is predicted to expand to 20% in 2030. The projection implies that the Middle East upstream and refinery capacities are likely to be sufficient to meet the demand until around 2015; thereafter expansion appears certainly.

A Methodology for Designing Future Zero-Carbon Electricity Systems with Smart Grid and Its Application to Kansai Area, Japan

Zero-carbon power sources including renewable and nuclear energy are expected to be increasingly rapidly integrated into future electricity systems in Japan. On the other hand, one of the most crucial elements of future electricity systems will be the capability for “smart” controls on both supply and demand sides to perform under real-time dynamics. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to propose a methodology for designing zero-carbon electricity systems with smart grids. The methodology is organized into an input-output framework, and is realized using an hour-by-hour computer simulation to achieve a supply-demand balance in real time subject to various constraints. The methodology is developed as an operable software platform, and it is applied to Kansai area, Japan as a case study to test its practical feasibility. Scenarios with different energy mix in supply side and electric devices in demand side are proposed using the methodology. The analysis result shows that in future electricity systems, controllable loads are helpful for integrating zero-carbon power sources; effective and low cost smart control technologies, batteries, hydrogen storage and fuel cell technologies are crucial for realizing the desired zero-carbon electricity systems. Finally, the practical availability of the proposed methodology is proven through the case study.

Scenario Analysis of Low-Carbon Smart Electricity Systems in Japan in 2030

The future developments of nuclear and renewable energy need to be considered together in Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident under continuing policies of CO2 emission reduction. On the other hand, one of the most crucial elements of future electricity systems will be the capability for “smart” controls on both supply and demand sides to perform under real-time dynamics. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to propose electricity systems in Japan in 2030 with different mix of renewable energy and nuclear power in supply side and different penetration levels of electric devices such as battery, EV (electric vehicle) and HP (heat pump) under their smart control strategies in demand side. The scenario analysis was conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model to derive supply–demand balance subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained excess electricity, CO2 emissions, operation patterns of various devices, etc. in different scenarios were compared and analyzed. The results of the analyses make us understand quantitatively the technological and environmental impacts of the different mixes of renewable and nuclear energy, as well as the corresponding operation patterns of controllable devices under their smart control strategies in different scenarios.