Benjamin P. Bryant

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

Exploring the phase diagram of the two-impurity Kondo problem

A system of two exchange-coupled Kondo impurities in a magnetic field gives rise to a rich phase space hosting a multitude of correlated phenomena. Magnetic atoms on surfaces probed through scanning tunnelling microscopy provide an excellent platform to investigate coupled impurities, but typical high Kondo temperatures prevent field-dependent studies from being performed, rendering large parts of the phase space inaccessible. We present a study of pairs of Co atoms on insulating Cu2N/Cu(100), which each have a Kondo temperature of only 2.6u2009K. The pairs are designed to have interaction strengths similar to the Kondo temperature. By applying a sufficiently strong magnetic field, we are able to access a new phase in which the two coupled impurities are simultaneously screened. Comparison of differential conductance spectra taken on the atoms to simulated curves, calculated using a third-order transport model, allows us to independently determine the degree of Kondo screening in each phase.

Charge-order domain walls with enhanced conductivity in a layered manganite

Interfaces and boundaries in condensed-matter systems often have electronic properties distinct from the bulk material and thus have become a topic of both fundamental scientific interest and technological importance. Here we identify, using microwave impedance microscopy, enhanced conductivity of charge-order domain walls in the layered manganite Pr(Sr0.1Ca0.9)2Mn2O7. We obtain a complete mesoscopic map of surface topography, crystalline orientation and electronic phase, and visualize the thermal phase transition between two charge-ordered phases. In both phases, charge-order domains occur with domain walls showing enhanced conductivity likely due to local lifting of the charge order. Finite element analysis shows that the resolved domain walls can be as narrow as few nanometres. The domain walls are stabilized by structural twins and have a strong history dependence, suggesting that they may be manipulated to create novel devices.

Valuing investments in sustainable land management in the Upper Tana River basin, Kenya

We analyze the impacts of investments in sustainable land use practices on ecosystem services in the Upper Tana basin, Kenya. This work supports implementation of the Upper Tana-Nairobi Water Fund, a public-private partnership to safeguard ecosystem service provision and food security. We apply an integrated modelling framework, building on local knowledge and previous field- and model-based studies, to link biophysical landscape changes at high temporal and spatial resolution to economic benefits for key actors in the basin. The primary contribution of this study is that it a) presents a comprehensive analysis for targeting interventions that takes into account stakeholder preferences, local environmental and socio-economic conditions, b) relies on detailed, process-based, biophysical models to demonstrate the biophysical return on those investments for a practical, decision-driven case, and c) in close collaboration with downstream water users, links those biophysical outputs to monetary metrics, including: reduced water treatment costs, increased hydropower production, and crop yield benefits for agricultural producers in the conservation area. This study highlights the benefits and trade-offs that come with conducting participatory research as part of a stakeholder engagement process: while results are more likely to be decision-relevant within the local context, navigating stakeholder expectations and data limitations present ongoing challenges.

Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planets land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.