Benjamin Pfeil

Tracking the variable North Atlantic sink for atmospheric CO2

A Happy Marriage The fluxes of CO2 between the atmosphere and ocean are large and variable, and understanding why the concentration of atmospheric CO2 changes as it does, depends on accurately determining the details of those fluxes. One of the major obstacles in the way of quantifying this exchange is that there are too few measurements available, both temporally and geographically. Watson et al. (p. 1391) report results from a happy marriage of science and commerce—data collected by instruments fitted onto commercial ships plying the waters of the North Atlantic Ocean—that has generated the largest and most comprehensive set of measurements of ocean pCO2 ever collected. These data allow the oceanic CO2 sink to be monitored with unprecedented accuracy and will help researchers precisely map regional interannual air-sea fluxes. Data from instrumented commercial ships reveal substantial interannual variations of carbon dioxide flux between the ocean and the air. The oceans are a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Historically, observations have been too sparse to allow accurate tracking of changes in rates of CO2 uptake over ocean basins, so little is known about how these vary. Here, we show observations indicating substantial variability in the CO2 uptake by the North Atlantic on time scales of a few years. Further, we use measurements from a coordinated network of instrumented commercial ships to define the annual flux into the North Atlantic, for the year 2005, to a precision of about 10%. This approach offers the prospect of accurately monitoring the changing ocean CO2 sink for those ocean basins that are well covered by shipping routes.

Regionalized global budget of the CO2 exchange at the air-water interface in continental shelf seas

Over the past decade, estimates of the atmospheric CO2 uptake by continental shelf seas were constrained within the 0.18–0.45 Pg C yr−1 range. However, most of those estimates are based on extrapolations from limited data sets of local flux measurements (n < 100). Here we propose to derive the CO2 air-sea exchange of the shelf seas by extracting 3 · 106 direct surface ocean CO2 measurements from the global database SOCAT (Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas), atmospheric CO2 values from GlobalVIEW and calculating gas transfer rates using readily available global temperature, salinity, and wind speed fields. We then aggregate our results using a global segmentation of the shelf in 45 units and 152 subunits to establish a consistent regionalized CO2 exchange budget at the global scale. Within each unit, the data density determines the spatial and temporal resolutions at which the air-sea CO2 fluxes are calculated and range from a 0.5° resolution in the best surveyed regions to a whole unit resolution in areas where data coverage is limited. Our approach also accounts, for the first time, for the partial sea ice cover of polar shelves. Our new regionalized global CO2 sink estimate of 0.19 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1 falls in the low end of previous estimates. Reported to an ice-free surface area of 22 · 106 km2, this value yields a flux density of 0.7 mol C m−2 yr−1, ~40% more intense than that of the open ocean. Our results also highlight the significant contribution of Arctic shelves to this global CO2 uptake (0.07 Pg C yr−1).

Long-term surface pCO 2 trends from observations and models

We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011) period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work also highlights the importance and need for a sustained long-term observing strategy to continue monitoring the change in the ocean anthropogenic CO2 sink and to better understand the potential carbon cycle feedbacks to climate that could arise from it.

Global data products help assess changes to ocean carbon sink

Net oceanic uptake of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) reduces global warming but also leads to ocean acidification [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007]. Understanding and predicting changes in the ocean carbon sink are critical to assessments of future climate change. Surface water CO2 measurements suggest large year-to-year variations in oceanic CO2 uptake for several regions [Doney et al., 2009]. However, there is much debate on whether these changes are cyclical or indicative of long-term trends. Sustained, globally coordinated observations of the surface ocean carbon cycle and systematic handling of such data are essential for assessing variation and trends in regional and global ocean carbon uptake, information necessary for accurate estimates of global and national carbon budgets.

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm.