Benjamin S. Rashford

Economics of grassland conversion to cropland in the prairie pothole region.

Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland-conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land-use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north-central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland-conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121,000 ha (300,000 acres) of grassland could be converted to cropland annually from 2006 to [corrected] 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high-quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower-quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high-quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high-risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.

Wolf (Canis lupus) Predation Impacts on Livestock Production: Direct Effects, Indirect Effects, and Implications for Compensation Ratios

Abstract Growing wolf (Canis lupus L.) populations in the US Rocky Mountain Region have increased conflicts between livestock production and wolf conservation. Given that the costs of large carnivore conservation are disproportionately borne by local livestock producers, the United States uses compensation for wolf damage to reduce conflicts and mediate negative attitudes toward the predators. Current compensation programs, however, only consider the direct effects of wolf predation. Indirect effects, such as wolf effects on weaning weights, and conception rates, may also reduce profitability. By not including indirect wolf effects, compensation programs may systematically undercompensate ranchers. We use a stochastic budget model of a representative cow–calf ranch in northwest Wyoming to estimate the economic impact of both direct (death loss and injured calves) and indirect effects (decreased weaning weights, decreased conception rates, and increased cattle sickness) of wolf predation. Our results suggest that short-run (i.e., year-to-year) financial impacts of wolf indirect effects may be as large as or larger than the direct effects. Including indirect effects implies that the compensation ratio (i.e., number of calves compensated per confirmed depredation) necessary to fully offset the financial impacts of wolves would need to be two to three times larger than current 7:1 compensation ratio used in Wyoming.

The Effects of Environmental Amenities on Agricultural Land Values

Ascribing agricultural land values solely to productive capacity does not accurately capture the impact of environmental amenities on western land prices. We analyze rural land prices in Wyoming using a hedonic price model. Geographic information systems data includes on-parcel wildlife and fish habitat, scenic view attributes, and distance to protected federal lands. Feasible generalized least squares is used to address spatial autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. Results indicate that environmental amenities contribute to land values. Examination of the marginal effects of amenities on parcel price furthers these conclusions. Environmental amenities contributions to land prices may guide resource allocation decisions across diverse demands. (JEL Q24)

Improving the Cost-Effectiveness of Ecosystem Management: An Application to Waterfowl Production

Species conservation is an important global policy issue. The design of cost-effective species conservation programs requires resource managers to choose from a suite of conservation activities and sites. This article determines cost-effective conservation strategies for waterfowl using a bioeconomic modeling framework, which is developed using a biological simulation model for waterfowl and regression analysis. The model accounts for (a) a broad range of land-use and direct wildlife conservation activities, (b) the effect of landscape heterogeneity, and (c) interactions between conservation activities. Results indicate that accounting for the three factors listed above can improve the cost-effectiveness of waterfowl conservation on agricultural land.

Profitability of Carbon Sequestration in Western Rangelands of the United States

Abstract Concerns over climate change have increased interest in carbon sequestration in agricultural lands. While the per-hectare carbon capture potential of rangelands is less than either cropland or forests, existing research suggests modest changes in carbon storage on rangelands can potentially alter the global carbon cycle. This paper examines the potential firm-level revenues from voluntary carbon offset programs, such as the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) Rangeland Soil Carbon Offset program. We estimate revenues for short-term voluntary offsets given historical prices and prices projected with potential cap-and-trade legislation. We also estimate revenues assuming 100-yr offsets are required to meet international sequestration standards. Simulation results indicate a relatively wide range of modest revenues from recent CCX contracts and carbon prices. The analysis suggests that recent carbon prices or low-end projected prices from cap-and-trade legislation are not likely to encourage producer participation. Medium and high carbon price projections for cap-and-trade legislation may make carbon sequestration a more attractive option for rangeland managers, but given potential requirements for projects to meet international guidelines for greenhouse gas offset projects, many issues remain before range managers may be interested in carbon sequestration as an enterprise. Resumen La preocupación sobre el cambio climático ha aumentado el interés en el secuestro de carbono en tierras de uso agropecuario. Mientras que el potencial de captura de carbono en pastizales es menor que en tierras agrícolas y bosques, investigaciones sugieren que cambios modestos en el almacén de carbono en pastizales potencialmente alteran el ciclo global del carbono. Este artículo examina el ingreso potencial a nivel de empresa en programas voluntarios para la compensación de carbono tales como el programa de Compensación de Carbono en Pastizales del Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX). Estimamos ingresos en el corto plazo por compensaciones voluntarias dado precios históricos y precios proyectados con potencial con legislación de tope y compra-venta. También estimamos ingresos asumiendo 100 años de compensación tal como es requerido para cumplir los estándares internacionales de captura. Resultados de simulaciones indican relativamente amplio margen de modestos ingresos de contratos recientes del CCX y precios del carbono. El análisis sugiere que los precios recientes del carbono o proyectos de menor importancia de la legislación tipo tope y compra-venta no tienen posibilidad de encontrar la participación de los productores. La proyección de precios medianos y altos del carbono de la legislación tope y compra-venta podría hacer más atractiva la opción de captura de carbono para los manejadores de pastizales pero, dado los requerimientos potenciales para proyectos que cumplan con los lineamientos internacionales para la compensación de proyectos de gases de efecto invernadero, muchos aspectos están presentes antes de que los manejadores de pastizales pudieran estar interesados en el secuestro de carbono a nivel empresarial.

Application of a Bioeconomic Production Model to Improve Wildlife Management

Abstract Faced with limited budgets, wildlife managers need to determine the set of management activities that achieve management objectives at least cost, which requires using both ecological and economic principles to make management decisions. We used data from a biological simulation model of breeding waterfowl to embed biological response within an economic optimization model. Nonlinearity of the response function was attributable to density dependence and interactions between jointly applied management activities. We then used the bioeconomic model to solve a waterfowl managers least-cost problem. Model results demonstrated that 1) biological response and economic cost jointly determine the least-cost management plan, 2) nonlinearity of the biological response function should be modeled explicitly to identify cost-effective management plans, and 3) least-cost management plans depend on the chosen population objective. We demonstrate how concepts from production economics can aid decision making in a wide range of applied wildlife management settings; however, though applied to waterfowl management, we did not intend to provide a robust prescription for waterfowl managers.

The Impact of Residential Development Pattern on Wildland Fire Suppression Expenditures

Despite a growing body of literature on the economics of wildland fire suppression, the effect of development pattern in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) has received only cursory treatment. We model the relationship between fire suppression expenditures and the spatial pattern of residential development using data from 281 fires in the northern Rocky Mountains. We find that the effect of WUI development on suppression expenditures is dependent on the spatial pattern of development. Our results suggest that policies to control the spatial pattern of WUI development can be nearly as effective as policies that completely restrict WUI development. (JEL C51, Q23)

Wild-captive interactions and economics drive dynamics of Asian elephants in Laos

The interactions between wild and captive populations of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) persist in most countries of the species distribution, notably through the reproduction between captive females and wild males. However, these complex interactions have been poorly studied, despite their relevance for conservation of this endangered species. Laos has a centuries-long tradition of raising Asian elephants. Besides being cultural icons, captive elephants are inextricably linked to economics through their work in forestry. Using an ecological-economic model, we investigated the effect of socio-economic strategies on fecundity of the Lao population whose dynamics is shaped by human practices. We demonstrated that fecundity is impacted by: i) the dynamics of the wild elephant pool through mating of captive females by wild males, and ii) the financial incentive of elephant owners to breed their animals. As a result, we expect fecundity to rise in response to increases in elephant prices. The captive population will tend towards an asymptotic limit determined by the wild pool growth rate. However, the population will tend to extinction if exports continue. Our ecological-economic approach, by accounting for economic incentives, allows us to predict new equilibria that can serve as a baseline for designing sustainable management strategies for the species.