Benjamin Werner

Identification of neutral tumor evolution across cancer types

Despite extraordinary efforts to profile cancer genomes, interpreting the vast amount of genomic data in the light of cancer evolution remains challenging. Here we demonstrate that neutral tumor evolution results in a power-law distribution of the mutant allele frequencies reported by next-generation sequencing of tumor bulk samples. We find that the neutral power law fits with high precision 323 of 904 cancers from 14 types and from different cohorts. In malignancies identified as evolving neutrally, all clonal selection seemingly occurred before the onset of cancer growth and not in later-arising subclones, resulting in numerous passenger mutations that are responsible for intratumoral heterogeneity. Reanalyzing cancer sequencing data within the neutral framework allowed the measurement, in each patient, of both the in vivo mutation rate and the order and timing of mutations. This result provides a new way to interpret existing cancer genomic data and to discriminate between functional and non-functional intratumoral heterogeneity.

Dynamics of mutant cells in hierarchical organized tissues.

Most tissues in multicellular organisms are maintained by continuous cell renewal processes. However, high turnover of many cells implies a large number of error-prone cell divisions. Hierarchical organized tissue structures with stem cell driven cell differentiation provide one way to prevent the accumulation of mutations, because only few stem cells are long lived. We investigate the deterministic dynamics of cells in such a hierarchical multi compartment model, where each compartment represents a certain stage of cell differentiation. The dynamics of the interacting system is described by ordinary differential equations coupled across compartments. We present analytical solutions for these equations, calculate the corresponding extinction times and compare our results to individual based stochastic simulations. Our general compartment structure can be applied to different tissues, as for example hematopoiesis, the epidermis, or colonic crypts. The solutions provide a description of the average time development of stem cell and non stem cell driven mutants and can be used to illustrate general and specific features of the dynamics of mutant cells in such hierarchically structured populations. We illustrate one possible application of this approach by discussing the origin and dynamics of PIG-A mutant clones that are found in the bloodstream of virtually every healthy adult human. From this it is apparent, that not only the occurrence of a mutant but also the compartment of origin is of importance.

A deterministic model for the occurrence and dynamics of multiple mutations in hierarchically organized tissues

Cancers are rarely caused by single mutations, but often develop as a result of the combined effects of multiple mutations. For most cells, the number of possible cell divisions is limited because of various biological constraints, such as progressive telomere shortening, cell senescence cascades or a hierarchically organized tissue structure. Thus, the risk of accumulating cells carrying multiple mutations is low. Nonetheless, many diseases are based on the accumulation of such multiple mutations. We model a general, hierarchically organized tissue by a multi-compartment approach, allowing any number of mutations within a cell. We derive closed solutions for the deterministic clonal dynamics and the reproductive capacity of single clones. Our results hold for the average dynamics in a hierarchical tissue characterized by an arbitrary combination of proliferation parameters. We show that hierarchically organized tissues strongly suppress cells carrying multiple mutations and derive closed solutions for the expected size and diversity of clonal populations founded by a single mutant within the hierarchy. We discuss the example of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in detail and find good agreement between our predicted results and recently observed clonal diversities in patients. This result can contribute to the explanation of very diverse mutation profiles observed by whole genome sequencing of many different cancers.

Reconstructing the in vivo dynamics of hematopoietic stem cells from telomere length distributions

We investigate the in vivo patterns of stem cell divisions in the human hematopoietic system throughout life. In particular, we analyze the shape of telomere length distributions underlying stem cell behavior within individuals. Our mathematical model shows that these distributions contain a fingerprint of the progressive telomere loss and the fraction of symmetric cell proliferations. Our predictions are tested against measured telomere length distributions in humans across all ages, collected from lymphocyte and granulocyte sorted telomere length data of 356 healthy individuals, including 47 cord blood and 28 bone marrow samples. We find an increasing stem cell pool during childhood and adolescence and an approximately maintained stem cell population in adults. Furthermore, our method is able to detect individual differences from a single tissue sample, i.e. a single snapshot. Prospectively, this allows us to compare cell proliferation between individuals and identify abnormal stem cell dynamics, which affects the risk of stem cell related diseases. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08687.001

The Cancer Stem Cell Fraction in Hierarchically Organized Tumors Can Be Estimated Using Mathematical Modeling and Patient-Specific Treatment Trajectories

Many tumors are hierarchically organized and driven by a subpopulation of tumor-initiating cells (TIC), or cancer stem cells. TICs are uniquely capable of recapitulating the tumor and are thought to be highly resistant to radio- and chemotherapy. Macroscopic patterns of tumor expansion before treatment and tumor regression during treatment are tied to the dynamics of TICs. Until now, the quantitative information about the fraction of TICs from macroscopic tumor burden trajectories could not be inferred. In this study, we generated a quantitative method based on a mathematical model that describes hierarchically organized tumor dynamics and patient-derived tumor burden information. The method identifies two characteristic equilibrium TIC regimes during expansion and regression. We show that tumor expansion and regression curves can be leveraged to infer estimates of the TIC fraction in individual patients at detection and after continued therapy. Furthermore, our method is parameter-free; it solely requires the knowledge of a patients tumor burden over multiple time points to reveal microscopic properties of the malignancy. We demonstrate proof of concept in the case of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), wherein our model recapitulated the clinical history of the disease in two independent patient cohorts. On the basis of patient-specific treatment responses in CML, we predict that after one year of targeted treatment, the fraction of TICs increases 100-fold and continues to increase up to 1,000-fold after 5 years of treatment. Our novel framework may significantly influence the implementation of personalized treatment strategies and has the potential for rapid translation into the clinic. Cancer Res; 76(7); 1705-13. ©2016 AACR.

Dynamics of Leukemia Stem-like Cell Extinction in Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia

Many tumors are believed to be maintained by a small number of cancer stem-like cells, where cure is thought to require eradication of this cell population. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) before and during therapy with regard to disease initiation, progression, and therapeutic response. This investigation used a mathematical model of hematopoiesis and a dataset derived from the North American Intergroup Study INT0129. The known phenotypic constraints of APL could be explained by a combination of differentiation blockade of PML-RARα-positive cells and suppression of normal hematopoiesis. All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) neutralizes the differentiation block and decreases the proliferation rate of leukemic stem cells in vivo. Prolonged ATRA treatment after chemotherapy can cure patients with APL by eliminating the stem-like cell population over the course of approximately one year. To our knowledge, this study offers the first estimate of the average duration of therapy that is required to eliminate stem-like cancer cells from a human tumor, with the potential for the refinement of treatment strategies to better manage human malignancy.

Dynamics of Resistance Development to Imatinib under Increasing Selection Pressure: A Combination of Mathematical Models and In Vitro Data

In the last decade, cancer research has been a highly active and rapidly evolving scientific area. The ultimate goal of all efforts is a better understanding of the mechanisms that discriminate malignant from normal cell biology in order to allow the design of molecular targeted treatment strategies. In individual cases of malignant model diseases addicted to a specific, ideally single oncogene, e.g. Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), specific tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have indeed been able to convert the disease from a ultimately life-threatening into a chronic disease with individual patients staying in remission even without treatment suggestive of operational cure. These developments have been raising hopes to transfer this concept to other cancer types. Unfortunately, cancer cells tend to develop both primary and secondary resistance to targeted drugs in a substantially higher frequency often leading to a failure of treatment clinically. Therefore, a detailed understanding of how cells can bypass targeted inhibition of signaling cascades crucial for malignant growths is necessary. Here, we have performed an in vitro experiment that investigates kinetics and mechanisms underlying resistance development in former drug sensitive cancer cells over time in vitro. We show that the dynamics observed in these experiments can be described by a simple mathematical model. By comparing these experimental data with the mathematical model, important parameters such as mutation rates, cellular fitness and the impact of individual drugs on these processes can be assessed. Excitingly, the experiment and the model suggest two fundamentally different ways of resistance evolution, i.e. acquisition of mutations and phenotype switching, each subject to different parameters. Most importantly, this complementary approach allows to assess the risk of resistance development in the different phases of treatment and thus helps to identify the critical periods where resistance development is most likely to occur.

Self tolerance in a minimal model of the idiotypic network

We consider the problem of self-tolerance in the frame of a minimalistic model of the idiotypic network. A node of this network represents a population of B-lymphocytes of the same idiotype, which is encoded by a bit string. The links of the network connect nodes with (nearly) complementary strings. The population of a node survives if the number of occupied neighbors is not too small and not too large. There is an influx of lymphocytes with random idiotype from the bone marrow. Previous investigations have shown that this system evolves toward highly organized architectures, where the nodes can be classified into groups according to their statistical properties. The building principles of these architectures can be analytically described and the statistical results of simulations agree very well with results of a modular mean-field theory. In this paper, we present simulation results for the case that one or several nodes, playing the role of self, are permanently occupied. These self nodes influence their linked neighbors, the autoreactive clones, but are themselves not affected by idiotypic interactions. We observe that the group structure of the architecture is very similar to the case without self antigen, but organized such that the neighbors of the self are only weakly occupied, thus providing self-tolerance. We also treat this situation in mean-field theory, which give results in good agreement with data from simulation. The model supports the view that autoreactive clones, which naturally occur also in healthy organisms are controlled by anti-idiotypic interactions, and could be helpful to understand network aspects of autoimmune disorders.

Ontogenic growth as the root of fundamental differences between childhood and adult cancer

Cancer, the unregulated proliferation of cells, can occur at any age and may arise from almost all cell types. However, the incidence and types of cancer differ with age. Some cancers are predominantly observed in children, others are mostly restricted to older ages. Treatment strategies of some cancers are very successful and cure is common in childhood, while treatment of the same cancer type is much more challenging in adults. Here, we develop a stochastic model of stem cell proliferation that considers both tissue development and homeostasis and discuss the disturbance of such a system by mutations. Due to changes in population size, mutant fitness becomes context dependent and consequently the effects of mutations on the stem cell population can vary with age. We discuss different mutant phenotypes and show the age dependency of their expected abundances. Most importantly, fitness of particular mutations can change with age and advantageous mutations can become deleterious or vice versa. This perspective can explain unique properties of childhood disorders, for example, the frequently observed phenomenon of a self‐limiting leukemia in newborns with trisomy 21, but also explains other puzzling observations such as the increased risk of leukemia in patients with bone marrow failure or chemotherapy induced myelodysplasia. Stem Cells 2016;34:543–550

Quantification of subclonal selection in cancer from bulk sequencing data

Subclonal architectures are prevalent across cancer types. However, the temporal evolutionary dynamics that produce tumor subclones remain unknown. Here we measure clone dynamics in human cancers by using computational modeling of subclonal selection and theoretical population genetics applied to high-throughput sequencing data. Our method determined the detectable subclonal architecture of tumor samples and simultaneously measured the selective advantage and time of appearance of each subclone. We demonstrate the accuracy of our approach and the extent to which evolutionary dynamics are recorded in the genome. Application of our method to high-depth sequencing data from breast, gastric, blood, colon and lung cancer samples, as well as metastatic deposits, showed that detectable subclones under selection, when present, consistently emerged early during tumor growth and had a large fitness advantage (>20%). Our quantitative framework provides new insight into the evolutionary trajectories of human cancers and facilitates predictive measurements in individual tumors from widely available sequencing data.This analysis uses computational modeling of clonal selection to measure evolutionary dynamics in primary human cancers. The method employs high-throughput sequencing data and simultaneously measures the selective advantage and time of appearance of subclones.