Bennett T. McCallum

An Optimizing Is-Lm Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis

This paper asks whether relations of the IS-LM type can sensibly be used for the aggregate demand portion of a dynamic optimizing general equilibrium model intended for analysis of issues regarding monetary policy and cyclical fluctuations. The main result is that only one change -- the addition of a term regarding expected future income -- is needed to make the IS function match a fully optimizing model, whereas no changes are needed for the LM function. This modification imparts a dynamic, forward-looking aspect to saving behavior and leads to a model of aggregate demand that is tractable and usable with a wide variety of aggregate supply specifications. Theoretical applications concerning price level determinacy and inflation persistence are included.

A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship

The paper first presents reasons for viewing the uncovered interest-parity (VIP) relationship as more important, in terms of economic analysis, than the unbiasedness of forward rates as predictors of future spot exchange rates. The two hypotheses are closely related, so that test rejections of the latter tend to cast doubt on the former, but are not identical--so unbiasedness rejections are not conclusive for UIP. Next, some representative evidence is presented that pertains to alternative versions of the unbiasedness test. Although s[sub t] = [alpha] + ([beta]f[sub t- 1] + [epsilon, sub t] and s[sub t] - s[sub t-1] =[alpha] + [beta](f[sub t-1] ? s[sub t-1]) + [epsilon, sub t] are equivalent under the null hypothesis of [beta]= 1.0, they represent different classes of alternative hypotheses. Empirically, they give rise to extremely different outcomes, estimates of [beta] being very close to 1. 0 in the former equation but in the vicinity of -3.0 in the latter. In a generalized specification that includes both as special cases, the results strongly favor the second specification--thereby rejecting unbiasedness. Finally, three possible explanations for the [beta] = -3 result are considered and related to the UIP condition. Of these three, the latter two--one involving systematically irrational expectations and the other an additional relationship reflecting monetary policy behavior--are consistent with UIP. The policy-response hypothesis, that monetary authorities manage interest-rate differentials so as to resist rapid changes in exchange rates and in these differentials, is attractive conceptually and is capable of explaining not only the [beta] = -3 finding, but also several other notable features of the data.

Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations

This paper reconsiders a result obtained by Sargent and Wallace, namely, that price level indeterminacy obtains in their well-known model if the monetary authorities adopt a policy feedback rule for the interest rate rather than the money stock. Since the Federal Reserve seems often to have used the federal funds rate as its operating instrument, with the money stack determined by the quantity demanded, this result suggests that the Sargent-Wallace model -- as well as others incorporating rational expectations -- is inconsistent with U.S. experience. It is here shown, however, that the indeterminacy result vanishes if the interest rate rule is chosen so as to have some desired effect on the expected quantity of money demanded. This revised conclusion holds even if considerable weight is given, in the choice of a rule, to the aim of smoothing interest rate fluctuations.

Timeless Perspective vs. Discretionary Monetary Policy in Forward-Looking Models

This paper reviews the distinction between the timeless perspective and discretionary modes of monetary policymaking, the former representing rule-based policy as recently formalized by Woodford (1999b). In models with forward-looking expectations, this distinction is greater than in the models that have been typical in the rules-vs.-discretion literature; typically there is a second inefficiency from discretionary policymaking, distinct from the familiar inflationary bias. The paper presents calculations of the quantitative magnitude of this second inefficiency, using calibrated models of two types prominent in the current literature. In addition, it examines the distinction between instrument rules and targeting rules; the results indicate that targeting-rule outcomes can be very closely approximated by instrument rules. Also included is a brief investigation of operationality issues, involving the unobservability of current output and the possibility that an incorrect concept of the natural-rate level of output, essential in measuring the output gap, is used by the policymaker. In all of the cases examined, the unconditional average performance of timeless perspective policymaking is at least as good as that provided by optimal discretionary behavior.

Demand for Money: Theoretical Studies

In any discussion of the demand for money it is important to be clear about the concept of money that is being utilized; otherwise, misunderstandings can arise because of the various possible meanings that readers could have in mind. Here the term will be taken to refer to an economy’s medium of exchange: that is, to a tangible asset that is generally accepted in payment for any commodity. Money thus conceived will also serve as a store of value, of course, but may be of minor importance to the economy in that capacity. The monetary asset will usually also serve as the economy’s medium of account — that is, prices will be quoted in terms of money — since additional accounting costs would be incurred if the unit of account were a quantity of some asset other than money. The medium-of-account role is, however, not logically tied to the medium of exchange (Wicksell, 1906; Niehans, 1978).

Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models

This paper concerns the minimal-state-variable (MSV) criterion for selection among solutions in rational expectationsmodels that feature a multiplicity of paths that satisfy all of the models conditions. It compares the MSVcriterion with others, including the widely used saddle-path (dynamic stability) criterion. It is emphasized that theMSV criterion can be viewed as a scientifically useful classification scheme that delineates the unique solutionthat is free of bubble components. In the process of demonstrating uniqueness for a broad class of linear models,the paper exposits a convenient computational procedure. Applications to current issues are outlined.

Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis

This paper discusses four current topics in monetary policy analysis, each of which hinges on the possibility of multiple solutions in rational expectations (RE) models. In three of these cases--involving inflation forecast targeting, the zero-lower bound deflation trap, and the fiscal theory of the price level--analysis based on E-stability and adaptive learnability of the solutions suggests that only one of them is a viable equilibrium candidate. Thus the dangers alleged to prevail, in these cases, are not ones with which actual policymakers need to be concerned. In the case of the Taylor principle, by contrast, policy behavior that violates the principle is genuinely undesirable, since all of the RE equilibria fail to be learnable.

Solutions to linear rational expectations models: a compact exposition

An elementary exposition is presented of a convenient and practical solution procedure for a broad class of linear rational expectations models. The undetermined-coefficient approach utilized keeps the mathematics very simple and permits consideration of alternative solution criteria.

Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General

This paper begins with a description of the inflation targeting arrangements currently in place in the four above-mentioned countries and their performance records through mid-1995 are reviewed. It is argued, however, that too little time has passed for conclusions to be drawn, so that tentative evaluations of inflation targeting need to be based on theoretical analysis and more generalized historical experiences. Accordingly, two alternative rationalizations are considered, one stemming from the literature on dynamic inconsistency and the other based on more pragmatic considerations. In addition, it is asked whether some other nominal magnitude might be preferable as a target variable and the issue of growth-rate versus growing-level target paths is addressed.

A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism

Abstract In VAR systems such as those of Sims (1980), monetary policy surprises may be more accurately represented by interest rate than money stock innovations, especially if the monetary authority uses an interest rate instrument.