Bent Dalum

Structural Change in OECD Export Specialisation Patterns: de-specialisation and 'stickiness'

This paper examines whether the OECD countries are characterised by a high degree of stability of their export specialisation patterns at the country level or not. Furthermore, we test whether the countries have become more or less specialised. In this context we distinguish between specialisation (or de-specialisation) in trade patterns on the one hand, and divergence (or, on the contrary, convergence) on the other. A specialisation process refers to a process in which specialisation intra-country becomes more dispersed (and counter-wise for de-specialisation). In contrast, a divergence process refers to a process in which countries become more different in terms of specialisation in a particular sector, across countries (and counter-wise for convergence). We examine the sensitivity for the level of aggregation, and we apply a period of nearly three decades from 1965 to 1992. Twenty OECD countries are considered. The intra-country results show that the national specialisation patterns are rather sticky, although there is a tendency for countries to de-specialise in the medium to long term. The sector-wise results display convergence both in terms of β-and σ-convergence. In conclusion, we discuss the results (de-specialisation in particular) in the context of economic integration, and furthermore we contrast the findings with similar exercises conducted on structural change in technological specialisation.

National Systems of Innovation: Public Policy in the Learning Society

Introduction Recently, several writers have argued that globalisation erodes national specificity and leads to long term convergence of structure, institutional set up, culture and, as a consequence, economic performance of countries. This does not correspond to observable facts nor has it been the message of this book. One of the most interesting developments of the 1980s is that despite globalisation, the distinctive features of national environments, have attracted much greater analytical attention than previously (Porter, 1990, Butry, 1991) and are seen by many authors as explaining differences among countries in competitiveness, growth and income. While the post war, ‘golden age’ growth period from the early 1950s to the early 1970s was characterised by convergence between the OECD countries (Gomulka, 1971, Cornwall, 1977, Maddison, 1982 and Abramovitz, 1989), as well as by a trend towards an increase in economic and social integration and reduction in inequalities inside nations (cf. the small but real closing of the gab between the Mezzogiornio and Northern Italy and a lowering of income distribution inequality in many OECD countries), the diverging features have been significantly more important in the two following decades. National specificity remains important and appears quite definitely to bear a relation to the capacity to produce, acquire, adopt and use technology. The erosion of the autonomy of national systems through globalisation is not synonymous with convergence and improved integration.

Technological Life-Cycles: Lessons From a Cluster Facing Disruption

New disruptive technological life-cycles may initiate the emergence of new regional industrial clusters or create opportunities for further development of existing ones. They may, however, also result in stagnation and decline. For clusters in many of the fast developing technologies, the evolution is closely related to shifts in technological life-cycles. During the 1980s and 1990s new mobile communications technologies have emerged as a series of distinct life-cycles, which have caused major disruptions in the industry. The paper examines the key features of a cluster in wireless communications technologies, where the economic evolution has been quite closely related to the emergence of new key technologies. The analysis is focused on the strategy and policy issues involved in the specific phase where one technological life-cycle may (or may not?) be succeeded by the next. When facing disruption the actors in the cluster have discussed various strategies for how to cope with shifts in the technological life-cycles. We find that there is room and need for policy and collective action in periods of uncertainty created by new disruptive technological life-cycles.

Path-following or leapfrogging in catching-up: The case of the Chinese telecommunications equipment industry

By reviewing the development of the telecom equipment industry from fixed telephone switches to the recent Chinese 3G mobile communications technology, we conclude that the lack of matching of existing foreign products with the domestic market needs has been a primary incentive for Chinese companies to catch-up. The accessibility of knowledge through various government support schemes, alliances with foreign companies and/or own R&D efforts have shaped the capability of Chinese companies to catch-up. Government support has been an important but probably not the dominant factor. Leapfrogging strategies will usually meet more tough problems than path-following. Government plays a more important role in the leapfrogging than the path-following catching-up process. Openness to the world and encouragement of the collaboration and alliance activity can give companies in the developing countries more opportunity to access the latest knowledge. In the R&D intensive industries, FDI can be an important factor for technology transfer and catching-up.

The Economic Geography of Innovation: National systems of production, innovation, and competence building

The authors have worked on innovation systems for more than a decade. This paper is an attempt to take stock. In Section 2, we reflect upon the emergence and fairly rapid diffusion of the concept ‘national system of innovation’ as well as related concepts. In Section 3, we describe how the Aalborg-version of the concept evolved by a combination of ideas that moved from production structure towards including all elements and relationships contributing to innovation and competence building. In Section 4, we discuss the challenges involved both in a theoretical deepening of a fairly narrow version of the concept and in the movement toward the broader approach and in adapting the concept for the analysis of poor countries.

The Danish ICT sector in an international perspective: a mismatch between demand and supply

Purpose – To analyse the past developments and future challenges of the Danish ICT industries with a focus on the mobile communications industry.Design/methodology/approach – Data on ICT employment and usage is analysed from an innovation system perspective in a case study of the Danish ICT industries.Findings – The Danish ICT sector is characterised by high skill levels and advanced demand while the supply side is lacking behind. However, opportunities is found in the emerging next generation mobile communication network standard due to a combination of a broad skill base, influence of US firms and relatively lesser vested interests in previous generation networks, standards and business models.Originality/value – This paper is a part of a special issue on next generation mobile telecommunications networks – challenges to the Nordic ICT industries. This paper presents the past development and future challenges of the Danish ICT industries emerging from the mismatch between demand and supply.